Richard~;307142 wroteand yet you'd rather take it up the ass from the imaginary craziest BB on the planet than find justification to mess with him and put yourself in the driving seat for the final 5? You speak of giving up monetary EV but then you leave it at that and don't add the proper weights to the other side of the scale of this decision
I'm leaving it at that because this situation is quite extreme, like the math shows. You're underestimating a 5 buyins mistake and overestimating the EV you'll gain from metagame. The metagame will be that he won't reship on us nearly as light after we make the call, maybe (what if he actually has AK/AQ this time, then there's a decent chance he won't adjust his ranges or we will decide not to call his shoves as light because maybe he just had hands).
In order to see a profit from this metagame wise we will have to get in a situation where it's an extreme ICM situation again where he's on our left with a stack that covers us and we're relatively deep as well. This is going to happen sooo rarely to begin with. Then once it does happen it means that our steals go through 30% more or something (even if he tightens up by 50%, it doesn't make our steals go through 50% more because of the other villain/villains we have to go through). So we're making 30% of $EV of stealing the blinds and antes if we get into this specific situation again.
I honestly don't know the odds of it, but it's going to be [% we final table together] x [% he gets put on our left] x [% he has a lot of chips AND out chips us AND we have a stack we can raise/fold] x [% of the time we get an opportunity to steal where our QJs call is going to tighten up his range]... it would be absurdly hard to calculate the odds of this but I have a feeling that it would be a very high number, so it would take an absurd amount of games to make up this much EV. If we were burning like half a buyin or something it might be more reasonable.
I was reading a hand on 2p2 where people were talking about a somewhat related topic (although the hand was completely different), but basically a huge drooler on our left reships 140BB early game and we have AK. Some people were arguing to fold based on the fact that we would have many future opportunities to stack him if this was the case, but then someone else came in and basically showed that the chances of us actually realizing the future EV of the drooler doing this were so low, and there was a much greater chance that someone else would be getting the benefits. The consensus was that taking our immediate edge was way more important than hoping for a future one.
Here the inverse is true, that NOT taking our -EV play is way more important than hoping that by taking it our EV will be regained in the future, because the future opportunities we will gain from a metagame perspective are so rare.
If you want to burn money and justify it with metagame then by all means go ahead. I definitely have and do make plays with this in consideration, but in general it's when the ICM isn't quite as extreme, and the advantage we get from winning the hand is more tangible.