darbday;306589 wroteI don't know how I can play this game so long and so intensively and still not know when a reg is going to 3bet me light. I've been playing with him all week, and I have notes on him, his opr, his sharkscope, and hes been at my table for the last 30 mins maybe 1h.
Am I really not capable of profiling a player?
I mean you can have all the information in the world but you still need to draw the correct assumptions from it. Knowing someone's OPR and sharkscope gives you ~0 info in this spot. There's randoms that are down heaps who would jam any 2, and there's regs who would only jam top 10% of hands or something. That's why I said, you need to have seen him reship frequently and/or seen him show up light in a similar spot in order to make that assumption. Don't just say "whoa he's up a lot of money, ok I'm not going to raise his big blind". I'm saying that if you're doing that then you're seeing monsters under the bed.
Or are you saying that in order to think hes capable I have to actually see him show up light in a 3bet spot like this? Because I think I can look at your opr and figure out that your capable in a spot like this?
Not sure if the last question is rhetorical or not, but you def can't tell someone's reshipping range from there OPR stats.
The bottom line is you're risking 6k to win 6.3k. They need to be playing back at you at least ~30% of the time avg (BB needs to play back 30% AND SB needs to play back 30%, not combined).
~30%: 22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,A7o+,A5o,K9o+,QTo+,JTo
Both villains either need to have a range like this, or if one villain is tigher (like the SB could be more like: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KJo+,QJo, probably even tighter) then the other villain needs to be playing back with like 40% of hands.
This is just to make a pre-flop r/f +EV in a vacuum. On top of that, if the BB ever flats you're probably making a ton of money because nearly ever better hand will shove pre so his flatting range will be severely dominated. If he never flats then I have a hard time believing he's going to shove 40% or something in this spot. It's not unheard of but until someone proves that they're ripping it here a ton and is capable of identifying/exploiting ICM spots, I'm not giving them credit for being able to do that.
