[deleted]
14 left, no sd's from villain
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 7 Players
CO: 16,150
BTN: 27,525
SB: 39,727
JodaB. (BB): 17,192
UTG: 8,286
UTG+1: 18,839
MP: 11,781
Pre-Flop: (3,450) J
A
dealt to JodaB. (BB)
2 folds,
MP raises to 6,400 Jodab ???
Irunit4times
I make the call and see the flop, possible over bet for weak pocket pair or middle range hand, I dont re-raise, and I dont fold. If the flop comes something you think is in your favour, I jam and let him have to make the decision since you have him covered and should only be calling off the top of his range.
Thats me
Hobbes
Unless villain is terrible, he will never be folding a flop.
He just put in over 1/2 his stack pre and is most likely hoping for all folds.
You're getting short and with the 180 man payouts being top heavy (I assume this is a 180), just jam it.
[deleted]
Hobbes;303659 wroteUnless villain is terrible,
see preflop raise size (but no i don't think hes folding either)
Irunit4times
Arguements for and against shoving pre flop, my strategy again would be just calling, if you hit, have a draw have anything where you think your running ahead, I jam the flop. I dont think you should be taking unnecessary coin flips pre flop just yet, if the flop comes all bricks you can check fold and look to jam pre flop opposed to jamming over top. Because again, he is most likely going to call you, even if he raised light, and your flipping. How about calling, if you hit you know they are probably calling again, but at least you jam with a good draw, or you hit etc, otherwise you saw a flop, can bow out to a bet if you check and look for your chance to shove.
[deleted]
Irunit4times;303654 wroteI make the call and see the flop, possible over bet for weak pocket pair or middle range hand, I dont re-raise, and I dont fold. If the flop comes something you think is in your favour, I jam and let him have to make the decision since you have him covered and should only be calling off the top of his range.
Thats me
you could conceivable do this i think, sometimes, but only if you are planning on never folding post flop.
Irunit4times
I can still get away from my hand on the flop, because even if you dont hit you can fold if he c bets the flop to a check. You will be in position to make shoves and scoop pots the next few hands after in the late positions. That is me, maybe a flaw in my game, but I dont want to take that coin flip with AJ. Even if you fold and go to 11k, a double up puts you back over 20k and in great position.
Hobbes
darbday;303663 wroteyou could conceivable do this i think, sometimes, but only if you are planning on never folding post flop.
If I call, I'm pretty much jamming almost any flop.
Not putting in 30% of my stack to fold most flops.
Irunit4times
Each play and player has their own set of possibilities, I prefer to stay away from coin flips like that especially witj AJ when much of someones range can be ahead of that hand. The name of the game too is to outlast your opponents, so seeing a flop to me isnt a bad thing, you still have chips left over, and can still play even if you dont like the flop and hit anything.
my .02 and everybody has their own play, no right or wrong, you are the one playing with the other person, your individual tells will be the deciding factor.
[deleted]
depending on villian, shove/fold... his range is strong with that tarp tho, probs has u crushed imo AQ+, TT+ so I lean towards folding unless u have specific notes ^-^
obv never calling/folding :arghh:
tb17
if u put one more chip in u gotta put the rest of them in, he has 7 bbs and is desp, he can be shoving ANYTHING here if hes decent. No reads = stick it in and pray.
reibs
jammer imo
Wetts1012
Calling and folding with this stack size is pretty not good. Ever.
Calling and jamming all flops is ok.
Not sure what 4x means at these levels but Im not happy getting it in.
DennisG
With his bet size he obviously wants to get it in but thinks he is being tricky..it's likely a monster.
I used to think I could flat here and still basically be in the same spot chip wise...but eventually got it pounded into my head that we are just throwing chips away.. I am letting this go and using our upcoming position to jam away.
Richard~
I can't fold this vs HJ ever =/
As smart person once said "when in doubt, fold vs early position and get it in vs late position"
HammerDad
Calling and folding the flop is brutal, as we will be given 3 to 1 to call if we c/c.
His range is weighted towards hands that crush us or we are flipping against. We may be a 3/2 favourite if villain has kq here, but are unlikely to ever be way ahead.
IMO - Fold >> Jam >> call
Reasoning for folding is at this point I'd rather be the hammer then the nail. AJ is fairly easily dominated buy a good portion of villains range. And we have no fold equity pre or post flop given villain has already put in 1/2 their stack. Lastly, we have no stats about villains steal range, which makes playing for stacks a guessing game.
Jamming is fine also. I don't shove as often as I fold though, and depending on reads (nit = fold, lag = arrr-innn)
betrthanphil
darbday;303661 wrotesee preflop raise size (but no i don't think hes folding either)
I dont think this sizing means hes bad. If he just jammed you would be calling, Id hope! He makes it this sizing to confuse you. Lots of people do it. Hoping that the person isnt paying attention and only sees the raise size but not what his stack is.
Getting it in and stop being a nit
reibs
While I'm sure I have folded this situation many a times, I think its a shove and I don't even think its that close.... Maybe Im wrong though...Please correct me if I am cus Im going out on a limb here...
Villian has 7.4 bb to start the hand. Lets forget the fact that he raises 4x since I dont think he will ever fold if we jam. I would expect the tightest to be shoving at least this....prob all pairs, but took out the lowest ones....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.527% 56.33% 05.20% 1157487792 106746036.00 { 44+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 38.473% 33.28% 05.20% 683784936 106746036.00 { AJo }
So we have 38% against a range that has zero spazz factor and is pretty much the tightest... If we add in some spazz + a few others I think are std from the avg 180 player, we get....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.932% 47.97% 03.96% 1587083904 130910472.00 { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, Q2s, J5s, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 48.068% 44.11% 03.96% 1459266480 130910472.00 { AJo }
Now this is where I will probably make my error.....
If he were to have just shoved (is this okay to do even?), we'd be calling off 10,031 (villians stack minus ante minus bb) and we would be winning a pot of
3450 + 11631 + 10031 = 25112
So we have 10,031 / 25,112 = 39.95%
So, I think as long as villian isnt the nittiest moron on the planet, then its a +EV shove. Is it the most EV? I dunno, maybe we get a handful of folds from stopngo. I doubt it is much though.
Now I know some people will say that his 4x raise looks like a monster, but I dont think that we can make that conclusion without notes. I mean I know many people will raise 90% of their stack instead of shoving, hoping for a bit extra FE. And I think that this is like the very beginning of that stack size here (if that makes any sense)...
If villian is any sort of a semi-reg, its def a fist pump.
Now, please tear my post apart and tell me how to do this right .... Gogogo ;)
[deleted]
betrthanphil;303907 wroteI dont think this sizing means hes bad.
are we playing the same game, ha? well a reg can do this with a weak hand to look strong, or even sometimes vice versa, but generally with under 10bbs a shove or fold is only correct, esp if hes a reg and sees me in the bb....so not for sure bad maybe, but I'd definitely bet on it.
betrthanphil;303907 wrote He makes it this sizing to confuse you. Lots of people do it. Hoping that the person isnt paying attention and only sees the raise size but not what his stack is.
yes lots of people do it and for more reasons than that even...but a random i think is most likely doing it with a medium strength strong hand.
betrthanphil;303907 wrote
Getting it in and stop being a nit
ok , btw the more i read and re learn some of the books ive read, the more right your crazy logic is starting to become
[deleted]
This thread sux and will prob almost needs to be locked because I thought the mp had more bbs when I posted this....more like 10ish not < 7 ....with him being short its a snap call regardless......
reibs;303911 wrote.
Villian has 7.4 bb to start the hand. Lets forget the fact that he raises 4x since I dont think he will ever fold if we jam. I would expect the tightest to be shoving at least this....prob all pairs, but took out the lowest ones....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.527% 56.33% 05.20% 1157487792 106746036.00 { 44+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 38.473% 33.28% 05.20% 683784936 106746036.00 { AJo }
So we have 33% against a range that has zero spazz factor and is pretty much the tightest... If we add in some spazz + a few others I think are std from the avg 180 player, we get....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.932% 47.97% 03.96% 1587083904 130910472.00 { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, Q2s, J5s, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 48.068% 44.11% 03.96% 1459266480 130910472.00 { AJo }
Now this is where I will probably make my error.....
If he were to have just shoved (is this okay to do even?), we'd be calling off 10,031 (villians stack minus ante minus bb) and we would be winning a pot of
3450 + 11631 + 10031 = 25112
So we have 10,031 / 25,112 = 39.95%
Don't do this math in my opinion, use the nash calculator. :mad:
reibs;303911 wrote
Now I know some people will say that his 4x raise looks like a monster, but I dont think that we can make that conclusion without notes.
no i think its not usually a monster...i think its usually mid strong hands like jj tt aq aj etc
reibs;303911 wrote
If villian is any sort of a semi-reg, its def a fist pump.
no no, not true, many regs id fold aqo
if hes a reg, snap call, and take note!!!