Blinds are about to go up...

Hellmuth's Mole

costanza;299964 wrotePeople min raise/fold all day long, often because their hand is strong enough to min raise and iso the shorty but their hand isnt strong enough to call a bigger stack moving in over top

Of course they do, but not in this spot for T$230 chips.

Hellmuth's Mole

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[deleted]

Hellmuth's Mole;299967 wroteOf course they do, but not in this spot for T$3200 chips.

there is 3200 in the pot

Hellmuth's Mole

darbday;299971 wrotethere is 3200 in the pot

OMG srsly?

[deleted]

Ok this is my best attempt to get it started.....I'm hoping its readable and correct enough that someone can fix any small errors....

Villain min raise range @ 21.4 (33+, All BW except JTo, QTo, A3s+, A6o+)

Villain call range @ 5.3 (TT+, AQ+, some 99, some Ajs, Some KQS)

Ev Villain Calls Hero's Stack - ((HeroEqvs.Villain(Total pot -Side pot) + 3wayEq(Side pot)) X %Villain calls

Ev Villain Folds (Total pot - side pot) + HeroEqvs.Shorty(Side pot)
X % Villain Folds

Villain Calls (5.3/21.4 = 24.77% of the time)

Villain : 75.294% { TT+, 9c9d, 9d9h, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, KcQc, KdQd, AQo+
Hero : 24.706% { 42o }

Villain: 50.474% { TT+, 9c9d, 9d9h, AQs+, AcJc, AdJd, KcQc, KdQd, AQo+
Hero: 21.266% { 42o }
Shorty: 28.260% { random }

HeroEqvs.Villain(Total pot -Side pot) + 3wayEq(Side pot)

.24706( 2510 + 12819(2)) + .21266(2120))

.24706(28148) + .21266(2120))

6954.24488 + 450.8392)

7405.08

(Hero's Stack - 7405.08) X .2477

(13049 - 7405.08) X .2477

1398

Villain Folds (100 - 24.77 = 75.234%)

Hero: 33.200% { 42o }
Shorty: 66.800% { random }

(Total pot - side pot) + HeroEqvs.Shorty(Side pot) X % Villain Folds

(2400 + .332(1890)).75234

2277.69

2277.69 - 1398 = 879.69

.

Richard~

math is idiotic. well, not really but definitely in this situation. You can always make the math fit your play if you tweak villains ranges enough but those ranges are what we're not accepting in this thread, not the fact that you can count anything home.

Vekked made what I think was a very good point. It's not that villains range is set in stone, he'll call AA very close to 100% of the time but as you go down the handrange he'll callt hands less and less but he'll definintely still click call some % of the time. you're making it sound like villain is a predictable machine while in reality he's an extremely volatile entity

Wetts1012

darbday;299975 wrote

Villain min raise range @ 21.4 (33+, All BW except JTo, QTo, A3s+, A6o+)

Villain call range @ 5.3 (TT+, AQ+, some 99, some Ajs, Some KQS)

See Im out here. I cant accept villain tank calls 99 and folds a10s and 88 (among other weaker hands).

[deleted]

Richard~;299977 wrotemath is idiotic. well, not really but definitely in this situation.

???

Richard~;299977 wrote You can always make the math fit your play if you tweak villains ranges enough but those ranges are what we're not accepting in this thread, not the fact that you can count anything home.

I think we can tweak them some and they'll still be reasonable to start to consider a shove, but still need someone to confirm the math.

Richard~;299977 wroteVekked made what I think was a very good point. It's not that villains range is set in stone, he'll call AA very close to 100% of the time but as you go down the handrange he'll callt hands less and less but he'll definintely still click call some % of the time.

I don't think that was his point. We can Simulate a mixed range by selecting certain combos of hands in villains range. But adding hands villain doesn't often call is like adding decimals to a whole number, it effect it less and less as we get further from AA.

But villains range is set in stone, throwing in mixed hands doesn't change that. We can use different scenarios to check our err% tho.

Richard~;299977 wrote you're making it sound like villain is a predictable machine while in reality he's an extremely volatile entity

No this Im not doing. We need to approximate a range, his volatility is in the there. Also to point it that this is what we do and its how we make money. Villain are not volatile, they are predictable.

[deleted]

Wetts1012;299982 wroteSee Im out here. I cant accept villain tank calls 99 and folds a10s and 88 (among other weaker hands).

wetts i have never seen a weak player min call ats on a final table bubble that I can recall in a turbo 180 other than the odd call that would put less than 5% of ats in his calling range.

I certainly haven't seen anything weaker min call enough to even consider putting it in his calling range.

but we're arguing back and forth there and I think its fine

I left out some suited aces, some offsuit aces and 22 from his opening range. I also left out any bluff in his min opening range....and that I thought his opening range is a little wider than 21%

But I just want to show that its reasonable to 'consider', so again whether the math is right or someone else can do it.

Richard~

I think it's obvious what we disagree on by now. Go ahead and shove every hand if you want, if we don't agree on the premises we'll never reach the same conclusion. and the premise I don't agree on is that villain has a large raisefolding range here, if he did you'd obviously be right to shove but that's far to facy play sydrome for me and I think you're simply wrong

reibs

Yeah I def think there is some more pairs and suited aces in their calling ranges on average Darb. Not many, but a few extra I think. Some people might be this tight though I'd find it hard to believe that without any notes you would have THAT good a read on someone when your 25 tabling. Even with batman's skills. ;) but if you have notes on the villian already, then I can dig it.

Furthermore, and aside from mathematically it being barely +EV at the best of times, I think the main reason I dont like shoving here is that it will most definitely affect how the fish react to your shoves for the remainder of this game. You said they wont react to reshoves spots cus there wont be any more in this game, however they will react in other ways, like calling your open shoves lighter (which we don't want). Remember most of the fish play only one or two tables, so they do watch. Mostly watch for the wrong things, but they watch. And they usually dont understand the difference between this spot and an open shove.

Whereas if you can keep your 'tightish' image, they will fold way way way too much. its a delicate balance and I think shoving this wide (everytime the scenario presents itself) will ultimately ruin your image, whether its +EV or not.

[deleted]

reibs;299995 wroteYeah I def think there is some more pairs and suited aces in their calling ranges on average Darb. Not many, but a few extra I think.

you aren't answering this properly or addressing the issue. How wide is he min raising here? does he fold A3s pre? KTo? 22? and does he call with those.

Wetts and Rich think he almost always min raise/calls here. Is that true in your experience? That I have almost no fold equity? You play this field, how many time do you shove aces here and he just folds?

reibs;299995 wroteSome people might be this tight though I'd find it hard to believe that without any notes you would have THAT good a read on someone when your 25 tabling.

Don't even.... ;p

reibs;299995 wroteFurthermore, and aside from mathematically it being barely +EV at the best of times, I think the main reason I dont like shoving here is that it will most definitely affect how the fish react to your shoves for the remainder of this game. You said they wont react to reshoves spots cus there wont be any more in this game, however they will react in other ways, like calling your open shoves lighter (which we don't want). Remember most of the fish play only one or two tables, so they do watch. Mostly watch for the wrong things, but they watch. And they usually dont understand the difference between this spot and an open shove.

you are suggesting that fish adjust and its simply not true, nor will they adjust enough to drastically change our shoving habits.

reibs;299995 wroteWhereas if you can keep your 'tightish' image, they will fold way way way too much. its a delicate balance and I think shoving this wide (everytime the scenario presents itself) will ultimately ruin your image, whether its +EV or not.

Yes because you think you would look me up 'light' during game but you wouldn't >:D

Edit: btw... you're folding 9c7c too much in the cutoff at bb1000

reibs

darbday;299997 wroteyou aren't answering this properly or addressing the issue. How wide is he min raising here? does he fold A3s pre? KTo? 22? and does he call with those.

Well I havent had time to dig through my database to check this for sure. But I plan on it. My guess is that most of these villians will minraise some of those hands (weighted to more suited aces and pairs) and fold to our shove. The rest like KTo they just fold. Just my guess though.

darbday;299997 wroteWetts and Rich think he almost always min raise/calls here. Is that true in your experience? That I have almost no fold equity? You play this field, how many time do you shove aces here and he just folds?

I already posted that hand which shows we have fold equity vs even the top regs at the $2s. So yes you def have some FE.

I very highly doubt the fact that the fish minraise with the intent of calling. I think the "fish" in mid-high stakes mtts are of a much different skill level and they understand what < 15bb means. Most of the villians in micro 180s dont.

darbday;299997 wrote Don't even.... ;p

Oh I just did! haha

darbday;299997 wrote you are suggesting that fish adjust and its simply not true, nor will they adjust enough to drastically change our shoving habits.

This I totally disagree with. They adjust. They just don't do it properly or enough. Not nearly enough. But they adjust in the sense that they think you're a tool and they start calling you a bit lighter.

Cant say how many times Ive had two or three push spots in a row and the last one, a typically weak tight fish decides to call me with Q6o or something....Just cus "I cant have it everytime."

darbday;299997 wroteYes because you think you would look me up 'light' during game but you wouldn't >:D

Wait, are you saying I dont look you up light enough? Cus I can make a few changes to that.... Didn't think this was the object of the game when sitting with other pfc'ers though?! hehe

[deleted]

reibs;299999 wroteThis I totally disagree with. They adjust. They just don't do it properly or enough. Not nearly enough. But they adjust in the sense that they think you're a tool and they start calling you a bit lighter.

Not nearly enough and a bit lighter are fairly negligible

reibs;299999 wroteCant say how many times Ive had two or three push spots in a row and the last one, a typically weak tight fish decides to call me with Q6o or something....Just cus "I cant have it everytime."

But mathematically their 'adjustment' won't be big enough to change our shove range by more than a few hands. If we are shoving wide it matters even less. If we are in late game they adjust even less.

EDIT: Also noting that when we shove light the premise is we don't go to showdown often. And sometimes the only hand that gets sd is a monster (but I'm not arguing Vekked here, he was talking about a slightly different thing)

The Highflyer

I think we should /thread this by saying Darb I agree with you in the math side of this being a good play which may in the end be +EV. I do play many of these SNGs as well and have to agree with you that people do fold 9bbs consistently... I think this is due to the structure of them and not the poker logic behind it as you would play most MTTs.

Many others bring up valid points about the consequences of making plays like this in the long run as maybe fish don't adjust but the regs certainly do and you will find yourself losing these more often when wider ranges start to call. I think another thing you have missed is that you do tend to make "light" allin moves very often in position. This likely already has given you the image that you are fully capable of making this move and as such the ranges we have applied really could be lowered... which likely would result in it being -EV.

You should really test this as in the late stages of these SNGs this min raise is seen very often and you will likely be able to get a good feel on how this plays out for you to give you an answer you find acceptable. To look at this as exactly it is it may be a good play but in the long run I think you will find that it can be passed up more often than not.

[deleted]

The Highflyer;300005 wroteI think we should /thread this by saying Darb I agree with you in the math side of this being a good play which may in the end be +EV. I do play many of these SNGs as well and have to agree with you that people do fold 9bbs consistently... I think this is due to the structure of them and not the poker logic behind it as you would play most MTTs.

what is your min raise range in mp2 shoes (use the picture of the table and hand to decide)? what hands would you call a shove vs. an unknown sb?

The Highflyer;300005 wroteI think we should /thread....

we aren't nearly finished with the math to start saying that

The Highflyer;300005 wroteThis likely already has given you the image that you are fully capable of making this move and as such the ranges we have applied really could be lowered... which likely would result in it being -EV.

no because if this player is new to me then i am new to him

The Highflyer;300005 wrote You should really test this as in the late stages of these SNGs this min raise is seen very often and you will likely be able to get a good feel on how this plays out for you to give you an answer you find acceptable.

i thought playing 10k hands a day you would assume that i tested it lots?

The Highflyer;300005 wrote To look at this as exactly it is it may be a good play but in the long run I think you will find that it can be passed up more often than not.

this is where i make my money, people thinking they can pass up on marginal spots in a turbo, its not true, and if i find out for one sec it your philosophy i will use it to crush you on a turbo table......especially late game...you won't stand a chance

[deleted]

ima use induction for this.....

I guess no one will verify the math anyways...perhaps I do range people well and perhaps the math is correct....maybe there's a few different scenarios where 42o is break even...

my original question was how do we quantify the fact that blinds will be going up when our chips are in the air?

Vekked

I think something is up with the calculations there darb, but can't correct cuz im in my phone. I'll double check later

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk

The Highflyer

Darb what I was trying to say with my first point is that in this exact scenario I think it would be a good shove and agree with your math if it is correct...

My second point was that this style may not be as successful in the long run and you will likely need to test it. I am fully aware of the amount of hands you play but how can I assume you're making this play all the time and testing it while asking the question itt?

If you say this is where you make your money in the late stages of turbos than I don't think anyone can argue against that. I was merely suggesting that you could be concerned with how it plays out over time.

reibs

darbday;300008 wrotethis is where i make my money, people thinking they can pass up on marginal spots in a turbo, its not true, and if i find out for one sec it your philosophy i will use it to crush you on a turbo table......especially late game...you won't stand a chance

Ok Tony G.

Are you qualified? ;)

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