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Vekked;300011 wroteI think something is up with the calculations there darb,
thats very likely....that my math is uber off and doesn't make any sense....:(
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The Highflyer;300012 wroteDarb what I was trying to say with my first point is that in this exact scenario I think it would be a good shove and agree with your math.
My second point was that this style may not be as successful in the long run and you will likely need to test it. I am fully aware of the amount of hands you play but how can I assume you're making this play all the time and testing it while asking the question itt?
If you say this is where you make your money in the late stages of turbos than I don't think anyone can argue against that. I was merely suggesting that you could be concerned with how it plays out over time.
me and you are having a good conversation too, and not just cause you agree with me :)
you are right in a way that you couldn't assume if tested 3bet shoving in spots like this but at the same time I think you could assume it cause of the number of games...my threads..my wild play and most important my confidence in the ranges here...
as for me playing loose all the time and how that plays out over time...i constantly get berate by good regs after the snapping me with aqs^-^
Richard~
i think this might be your math
first the villain folds part which he would do 1-5,3/21 % =74,8
first calculation WITHOUT minivillain
cEV villain folds = (3200+150x9) = +4550
cEV villain calls= (14800 + 14800 + 150x9) x 0,247 -14800= -7156
weighted cEV= 4550x0,748 - 7156x0,252 = +1600
if we adjust this for shorty it turns out that 66% of the time he will steal 250 chips from our stack, all the antes, 250 chips from BB and 250 chips from villains open (and 250 chips from himself) making sidepot 2350 we lose this 66% and add this 33% meaning we lose 33% of it putting that component at -783 and our adjusted chip EV at 1600-783= +817 chips
I think that's correct, had to do it myself cause I couldn't follow your math right away but if you compare the two calculations you might figure something out
eidit: I made one very important mistake, are you good enough to spot it? :P
I made several insignificant errors like estimation minvillain eq vs us to 66% instead of 67 but there's a pretty major conceptual misake in there thst offsets the result by almost 100%
Macke
the 4 2 off suit.. I like a shove here.you got to think you have live cards and two different suits so you got a shot at making two separate flushes.. not to dismiss the straight possibilities as well.
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Richard~;300195 wrote
weighted cEV= 4550x0,748 - 7156x0,252 = +1600
this all seemed close to what i was doing. i didn't understand where I take the answer for when villain calls and subtract if from my stack, but i found a good example and i did it anyways. The number i used i think was after the sb and antes were removed or something (maybe have been wrong).
I think the only difference is i attempted to do all the calcs with the adjusted pots for the the shorty instead of trying to subtract it later.....i think ;)
So again we've just got to the point of the thread now, i actually have 2 more adjustments before we can ask if this is a shove or not.....the first one is how do we quantify the blinds going up while our chips are in the air???
DataMn
Some of your calculations are definitely off, but you came to the right conclusion mathwise.
Major Calculations:
Stack left if you fold: 13849
Amount in stack if you shove, MP folds, you win vs Short Stack: 20879
(13849 + 1200 [Antes] + 800 [your SB] + 1600 [BB] + 3200 [Amount in from MP] + 230 [SS])
Amount in stack if you shove, MP folds, you lose vs Short Stack: 18759
(Side Pot = 1200 [Antes] + 230 * 4 (you, BB, MP, SS) = 2120)
Amount in stack if you shove, MP calls, you lose vs MP: 0
(obvious)
Amount in stack if you shove, MP calls, you win vs MP, win vs Short Stack: 32328
(20879 + 13849 - 2400)
Amount in stack if you shove, MP calls, you win vs MP, lose vs Short Stack: 30208
20879(0.7523 * 0.668) + 18759 (0.7523 * 0.332) + 0 (0.7794 * 0.24766) +
32328(0.2206 * 0.24766 * 0.668) + 30208 (0.2206 * 0.24766 * 0.668) =
20879 (50.256%) + 18759 (24.978%) + 0 (19.303%) + 32328 (3.649%) + 30208 (1.814%)
[Note that the percentages, added together, approximately equal 100%)
= 16331
16331 > 13849, so IF your assumptions are correct, then the math is on your side.
NOTICE though: pretty well all of your equity is from when the main villan folds - because of all of the dead money in the pot. You have to have a really good read on their calling range to be this confident.
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DataMn;300221 wrote
NOTICE though: pretty well all of your equity is from when the main villan folds - because of all of the dead money in the pot. You have to have a really good read on their calling range to be this confident.
nice math explanation too
coo, and that its true, assumptions need to be correct...i thought the ranges were even better to my favor, but i can't say for sure they aren't worse...
but now how would you quantify the blinds going up while our chips are in the air...???
Richard~
the part I fucked up was that I calculated the cEV relative to our current stack rather than cEV relative to us folding our stack. I'm pretty sure the blinds going up almost works in our favour from your description of villains
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Richard~;300227 wroteI'm pretty sure the blinds going up almost works in our favour from your description of villains
I think so too, or better said we can shove slightly wider.
Also another way of seeing it...when the blinds go up we'll have about 7bbs. With that stack I am not looking to go through blinds, meaning my shoving ranges will be quite wide. Coupled with the fact that everyone is calling uber tight here because with about 16 left people are feeling the ft bubble even though the payouts are flat right now.
So ill likely have 5 chances to shove some of which will be pre-empted by others. The way I play is to shove nearly atc if i have about 6 bbs utg....so my point is im comparing this spot to the latter and thinking this might be the best spot i get...
with the blinds going up with our chips in the air i think this is a fine spot to take...but i don't know if it works like that....
3 of us came up with the math being a break even ish spot (ranges are debatable but think if we average our thoughts it seems conceivable)
....do we need Vekked or someone to confirm all this or is it std. and i can do my last adjustment?
DataMn
Here is the counter argument to the math provided earlier though:
When the villan has to make their decision to call your shove, there is 20879 chips in the pot.
It will cost them 11449 to call. Therefore, they should call with any hand that has at least a 37.04% chance of winning against your range.
Even if they thought you could only make this move with the same range that you gave to their initial move (33+, A3s+, A6o+, Any Broadway except QTo, QJo) they should call with ALL of the hands in that range - and a whole lot of other ones that you did not have in their original range (full list - 22+,A2s+,A2o,K5s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QJo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s)
A lot of players won't know the percentages vs all ranges, but they do generally know the rule that most hands are less than a 2 to 1 dog [especially in their initial range], and the pot is giving them very close to that. I would be very surprised if they tighten up as much as you state when it comes to the final decision.
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DataMn;300232 wroteHere is the counter argument to the math provided earlier though:
When the villan has to make their decision to call your shove, there is 20879 chips in the pot.
It will cost them 11449 to call. Therefore, they should call with any hand that has at least a 37.04% chance of winning against your range.
Even if they thought you could only make this move with the same range that you gave to their initial move (33+, A3s+, A6o+, Any Broadway except QTo, QJo) they should call with ALL of the hands in that range - and a whole lot of other ones that you did not have in their original range (full list - 22+,A2s+,A2o,K5s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QJo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s)
A lot of players won't know the percentages vs all ranges, but they do generally know the rule that most hands are less than a 2 to 1 dog [especially in their initial range], and the pot is giving them very close to that. I would be very surprised if they tighten up as much as you state when it comes to the final decision.
in order for this to be correct....i need to have a sample of hands in which a fishy/rec player min raise calls weak hands with 9bbs effective. and in the 1 mill hands i have over 20k games it never happens....it a negligible amount
on the contrary i see bad players min fold short stacks all day long every day. my perceived range here is jj+ ak....and its very unlikely this guy knows the 2 to 1 rule because we have decided he is not a reg.... we have taken most of good players out of our villains profile...
its not likely hes good
I 3bet shove good hands on people all day and watch them fold ridiculous stacks...here we are in a ft bubble, he will never call light (never meaning not very often).
Edit: In case if Vekked reads this...I DO NOT 3bet shove bluffs 9bbs at min raises though ;)
Richard~
DataMn;300232 wroteHere is the counter argument to the math provided earlier though:
When the villan has to make their decision to call your shove, there is 20879 chips in the pot.
It will cost them 11449 to call. Therefore, they should call with any hand that has at least a 37.04% chance of winning against your range.
Even if they thought you could only make this move with the same range that you gave to their initial move (33+, A3s+, A6o+, Any Broadway except QTo, QJo) they should call with ALL of the hands in that range - and a whole lot of other ones that you did not have in their original range (full list - 22+,A2s+,A2o,K5s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QJo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s)
A lot of players won't know the percentages vs all ranges, but they do generally know the rule that most hands are less than a 2 to 1 dog [especially in their initial range], and the pot is giving them very close to that. I would be very surprised if they tighten up as much as you state when it comes to the final decision.
this is pretty obvious, darbday is basing his entire thread on villain being retarded but I thought we had all understood that fact already
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Ok moving on, assuming we decided its break even but we don't like to take spots like this or something.
We need to come up with two things now...
I need the people in this thread who responded to come up with the range they would shove when they first saw this post (without the math)....or it could be one person so we can use it as an example or the general consensus etc.
And with everything we talked about what is the general consensus of what the actual correct shoving range is after now seeing that 42o is almost break even and considering the blinds are going up....
Richard~
I have not in any way shown 42o to be anywhere close to breakeven, I just showed that it was given your premises which I strongly disagree on... have I not been extremely clear on this point already? <.<
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Richard~;300237 wrotethis is pretty obvious, darbday is basing his entire thread on villain being retarded but I thought we had all understood that fact already
yes and singling out 'retards' and adjusting my play to exploit them is where i make most of my roi
Richard~;300239 wroteI have not in any way shown 42o to be anywhere close to breakeven, I just showed that it was given your premises which I strongly disagree on... have I not been extremely clear on this point already? <.<
for you we can assume you agreed on the ranges in the first place....for you it will change your 3bet range you give....for others who don't understand the math...they will have much the same range.
Richard~
what I would shove without thinking is interesting. First off I would be scared of his minraise so I'd take out most marginal BW hands out of his range resulting in me probably shoving like 66+ A10s+ AJ+ and some KJs+ KQo possibly, but I'd probably fold some of these hands at times to
what I'm gonna do is I'm simply gonna find time to play a bunch of these tournaments to get my own feel for it, seems to be the most reasonable way
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**** this doesn't prove im right, its just one more adjustment i want to make***
so, IF villain was raise calling something like 20/5, or something reasonably like that, or slightly worse for us. But the blinds are going up while the chips are in the air, so we can be even more marginal....
And most people here shove a range like 55+ A9s+ ATo+, All suited BW, and kjo+
[ATTACH]1086[/ATTACH]
and we find something like 65% of hands to be profitable...
[ATTACH]1087[/ATTACH]
if we jam 42o it means we jam all profitable hands but take a hit from 76o-42o
[ATTACH]1089[/ATTACH]
Then i think its more of a mistake to fold kto then it is to jam 42o...
because that implies we fold all profitable hands from kto-76o (or the breakeven hand).....
[ATTACH]1088[/ATTACH]
Richard~
we fold all the hands that are profitable vs a retard. Villains stats was "standard stats" and you have no reason to believe he's a retard. If I have a reason to believe someone is a retard that changes a lot and it might be bad folding out some wider hands
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Richard~;300241 wrotewhat I'm gonna do is I'm simply gonna find time to play a bunch of these tournaments to get my own feel for it, seems to be the most reasonable way
im wondering if by a bunch you are going to play 1k games and come back and tell me my 20k games sample or what ever is wrong.
Richard~;300252 wrotewe fold all the hands that are profitable vs a retard. Villains stats was "standard stats" and you have no reason to believe he's a retard. If I have a reason to believe someone is a retard that changes a lot and it might be bad folding out some wider hands
this thread has now
assumed that my ranges are correct and has moved onto to something else....you last 10ish posts have restated this over and over....you are right...i can't range opponents properly....lets just move on slightly, please, under the premise i am correct....
My last adjustment....do we agree
given 65% is the optimal shoving range.....that shoving 42o is better than folding kto...
Richard~
you are this thread and you have moved on, as for me I can't continue on in this thread cause I believe that any conclusion reached will be faulty in it's foundation
and I won't go play 1000 tournaments, I'm not a grinder right now even though sometimes I wish I was, I do almost only coaching and 4-6 tabling trying to make my 3-500 dollar/ week withdrawals. what I am going to do is go play 100 or so and observe villains playing the turbos