betrthanphil;298781 wrotelet me ask you this then. When you checked turn what was your thought process at that point? were you trapping still? or were you concerned about the flop check? On the river were you trapping to c/r a lot of his bet sizes or just going to flat. Is all these decisions based on the one fact that he checked the flop?
Just dont see me flatting pre and then taking this line to often...
When he checks the flop I think his range is mostly showdown hands, separated into traps (AA, AK, KK) and weaker showdown like (QQ-TT, AQ). I can definitely lead turn and riv but I think often I get 2 streets of normal value vs. AA/AK, or 1 street against QQ-TT, fold AQ. Obv get stacked by KK but that's w/e cuz I'm stacking most of the time to it regardless. I think this is probably the worst/least value line.
2nd least value is c/r turn. I think his perceived range hits this board so much higher, and it's obvious that he has a ton more hands that hit this board than I do, so when I c/r it's just so obvious to a good hand reader that I have something. I don't think we have the history to take a super strong line with strength in order to look weak kind of thing. He might peel a turn c/r sometimes which makes it slightly better than lead/lead but probably folds river a lot because it just looks too strong.
The last 2 lines are both close. First is lead turn, c/r river. This is an alright line for sure, but it depends if he thinks I always will lead FD's and some other bluffs into his turn range. The thing is his hand looks like JJ-AA, some AK, basically stuff that's not going to fold the turn. So it probably doesn't make much sense for me to be leading too lightly into his turn range that looks like obvious showdown hands. He might just think I'm kind of dumb and could do it with Kx or flush draws, but then if I c/s the river I think it solidifies that I was trying to build the pot. I don't think he would believe that if I was trying to make him fold AK/AA I would start by leading the turn.
The last line (the one I was going for) was c/c turn, c/s river. I think I can reasonably rep the widest range here since a lot of Kx are bluff catchers vs. his value range and I wouldn't lead them for value anyways, and I'd probably do this with diamonds, maybe JJ-99 as well some % of the time. I just don't think I can rep a ton of air on this board vs. his range either way, so I might as well try to rep a weak value range. This way on a lot of rivers he'll value bet thinking he's clearly ahead, and I have a lot of hands that I can probably deduce aren't strong enough to call, so a lot of hands I can turn into river bluff shoves, and he has a lot of hands that are at the top of his range in order to call with, basically any hand he bets the river with is going to be reluctant to fold to a river c/s since I'm repping only 8x.
The only rivers I planned on check/deciding instead of def shoving were A, Q, and J since those cards give him more boats, and the J not only improves his JJ, but improves my perceived JJ, so either a J river gives him a boat, or gives him more reason to talk himself into folding AA thinking I hit a boat (or slowplayed something), or even more so talk himself into folding AK since there's the off chance I get frisky with KJ if I'm bad.
My plan on these rivers is to maybe shove if I think I can deduce he's betting thinly, or just call if I can't distinguish his hand strength (I still beat all his 2 pairs even tho I lose to his boats, so even if jamming isn't profitable calling should be). I didn't expect him to jam often on A/Q/J rivers, but when he does I think it's often just the nuts given his flop check, not to mention the J could possibly be the worst river for him to shove thinly because I never have AA/QQ on A and Q rivers, but I do have JJ in my range. He jammed pretty fast too, so it's like he didn't even consider I might have boated with JJ. I think the only hands he doesn't think about that with are hands that don't have to think about that (the nizz).