Interesting 200NL FR Hand

Vekked

Villain is one of the best mass-tabling 200NL regs/SNE. He's 18/13 overall and 3-bets about 6% total. I have a loose image and there's some chance he 3-bets me slightly more often. I have some notes but not sure if they're relevant, and I'd like to hear thoughts without those reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($97.30)
MP1 ($88.08)
MP2 ($206.28)
MP3 ($132)
Hero (CO) ($204)
Button ($446.07)
SB ($409.46)
BB ($208)
UTG ($205)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7

, 8

5 folds, Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($33) K

, 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($33) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($77) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $409.07 (All-In), Hero ...? (the river jam is $167 effective btw)

GTA Poker

Vekked;298163 wroteVillain is one of the best mass-tabling 200NL regs/SNE. He's 18/13 overall and 3-bets about 6% total. I have a loose image and there's some chance he 3-bets me slightly more often. I have some notes but not sure if they're relevant, and I'd like to hear thoughts without those reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($97.30)
MP1 ($88.08)
MP2 ($206.28)
MP3 ($132)
Hero (CO) ($204)
Button ($446.07)
SB ($409.46)
BB ($208)
UTG ($205)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 8
5 folds, Hero bets $5, Button raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($33) K, 8, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($33) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($77) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $409.07 (All-In), Hero ...? (the river jam is $167 effective btw)

I don't play online, but live he has most likely has JJ with that shove. Overall range would be KK/JJ/AA IMO.

It's obviously a polarizing bet, but isn't a bluff in his mind. I don't see AK shoving here unless he feels you have a weaker K which would have to be specifically KQ(/KT) if he thinks he can get a call, but the J on the river would halt all value polarizing shoves as KJ is easily a part of your range that is never folding to a shove.

Him having KJ does not seem likely given your description of him.

AA would be a value shove vs your AK/KQ/KJ/KT hands.

I fold as I think his range is strongly skewed towards JJ/KK. The action reallly makes me think JJ in this spot as most polarizing value shoves would be for disguised hands and hitting the J is pretty much equivalent of hitting a backdoor anything on the river and making a value shove the way the hand played out.

Vekked

Good analysis GTA. Fwiw he probably thinks I have a very low fold to 3B in this spot, like I think he would think I'd fold only my worse hands to this sizing, since my fold to 3B is pretty low vs. normal sizing. He usually 3-bets slightly bigger.

So given your analysis, what do you do if you're actually holding JJ OTR in this spot?

GTA Poker

Vekked;298167 wroteGood analysis GTA. Fwiw he probably thinks I have a very low fold to 3B in this spot, like I think he would think I'd fold only my worse hands to this sizing, since my fold to 3B is pretty low vs. normal sizing. He usually 3-bets slightly bigger.

So given your analysis, what do you do if you're actually holding JJ OTR in this spot?

100bb deep I don't think I can ever find a fold there unless it's a super nit that I have known for a long time at a live table...even then I throw AA/AK in cuz live nits are terrible and call...I probably don't start thinking about a fold ever unless we are 200bb+ deep.

We are also cutting his range down to KK/88 that beats us with 88 probably being a less likely hand for him to 3bet pre given his stats and stack sizes. I think 88 flats some of the time 100bb effective in position to set mine vs risking getting blown off the hand preflop.

I forgot to mention that I think there are a range of suited 8s (A8, J8-68) that a good LAG player can 3 bet in this spot pre, but from your stats I don't see it from this player so I discounted all those from the analysis.

Richard~

I think the op hand smells more of an 8 than of a full house, just saying

[deleted]

your call oop is a lil suspect vs one of the best no?

is villain going to have air here? its a simple overbet jam here with air and reps jj and kk very nicely but some even good players might not really use that line (or is that silly to question at this level?).

its seems like you still have to call given the way you played it,

is he GTO here?

[deleted]

GTA Poker;298170 wrote
We are also cutting his range down to KK/88 that beats us with 88 probably being a less likely hand for him to 3bet pre given his stats and stack sizes.

88 not so likely :-\

DennisG

Hmm...he is raising 13%, 3 betting 6%..I don't feel it narrows it down enough to say it's simply KK or JJ... and it's definitely not 88..lol He is mass tabling and still hitting those numbers..that is a lot of play for mass tabling, no? I don't know how many hands this number comes from, but I suspect it isn't a lot Vekked? I don't know the history between Vekked and him, but....There are a surprising number of bad players playing 200nl that will call off here with another pp..he might feel we are one of those and he simply has the King. He bets the turn to make us pay for the flush draw..when it doesn't hit, he either isn't getting paid because we missed, or we are calling it down with no matter what we have so he makes it look bluffy....he can have aces and queens here as easily as KK or JJ...
I *sigh* call....

djgolfcan

He has already 3-bet preflop, given his numers (less than 6% 3 bet), narrows his range to TT+, AQ+

He bet the turn 2/3 pot and you just flat called. He has to think you have a King or an 8, but given that he is a reg, may dismiss the 8 as it is unlikely you flopped trips. And he may put you on a mid pp (99 - TT) as you may not put him on a King.

You have really under repped your hand in this spot and he may think his AA is good, hoping you have K-J and his two pair is bigger than yours. Maybe he thinks he can get a weak King to fold here, versus his QQ.

There are too many hands that he can have and that he thinks is ahead of your hand but is not. I cringe and call.

DennisG

djgolfcan;298207 wroteHe has already 3-bet preflop, given his numers (less than 6% 3 bet), narrows his range to TT+, AQ+

I don't know how true this is??...we don't know how many hands this 6% is over...and if he isn't 3betting other hands than tt+ aq+(which is less than 5% and is he really 3 betting aq?), especially against someone he may think is loose, he probably has a leak...and a sne at this level mass tabling...I don't know that this is one of them?? (I could be way off base here and maybe he is just straight up standard playing)

He bet the turn 2/3 pot and you just flat called. He has to think you have a King or an 8, but given that he is a reg, may dismiss the 8 as it is unlikely you flopped trips. And he may put you on a mid pp (99 - TT) or 77 or QQ or KQ (he may see us as loose) as you may not put him on a King.

You have really under repped your hand in this spot and he may think his AA is good, hoping you have K-J and his two pair is bigger than yours. Maybe he thinks he can get a weak King to fold here, versus his QQ.

There are too many hands that he can have and that he thinks is ahead of your hand but is not. I cringe and call.

I too like this..

Vekked

Sample size is 3.5k hands I think. Fwiw with his sizing I think he can definitely 3B AQ and TT sometimes, but I think he flats AQ/TT sometimes as well. He definitely has some bluffs in there but not many, less than half of the time for sure.

Vekked

I also think he expects me to have KQ here nearly 100% of the time, and QQ nearly 0% of the time, JJ probably discounted as well b/c I 4-bet a decent amount (see: too much for cash) pre. One thing I think you guys might be underestimating is that he's jamming over 2x pot here, like a REALLY big jam. This isn't a thin value jam, I'd be extremely shocked if he took this line with AA. I think AA is like one of the nut hands for him to c-bet on this flop vs. my range too.

DennisG

Vekked;298226 wroteSample size is 3.5k hands I think. Fwiw with his sizing I think he can definitely 3B AQ and TT sometimes, but I think he flats AQ/TT sometimes as well. He definitely has some bluffs in there but not many, less than half of the time for sure.

This makes a large difference...didn't realize you played so much cash online.

Vekked;298228 wroteI also think he expects me to have KQ here nearly 100% of the time, and QQ nearly 0% of the time, JJ probably discounted as well b/c I 4-bet a decent amount (see: too much for cash) pre. One thing I think you guys might be underestimating is that he's jamming over 2x pot here, like a REALLY big jam. This isn't a thin value jam, I'd be extremely shocked if he took this line with AA. I think AA is like one of the nut hands for him to c-bet on this flop vs. my range too.

I need to rethink now..honestly..I didn't know you had this much history and now that we know he doesn't/wouldn't treat you as just some random that is playing out of his league, it certainly makes a difference.

If he takes QQ and JJ out of our range for the most part are we 4 betting these too often and not flatting enough?

Thing is..would he jam kk or jj here or make a reasonable size bet hoping you call him with KQ KJ 8x? He doesn't know we don't have 88 unless he has an 8 also..so he has to have that slight inclination that we might have 88?? .Does he 3 bet with A8? probably not...but 89, 78...maybe..

I could just be rambling...I have been in and out of bed sick for 3 days...lol Will reread later and see what kind of nonsense I come up with..

Vekked

I've just played the last month or so, put in ~60k hands working on my deepstack game. Obv with him being a SNE I have a lot of hands on him cuz he plays every table, lol.

He definitely takes QQ out of my range, but JJ isn't completely out I don't think. I think he expects me to 4B QQ all day (and I do), and JJ he may or may not discount, I can't remember any super specific history for 3-bet/4-betting, but I don't think there was much particularly notable, I doubt I've gotten it in that light vs. him cuz I realize his stack-off range is so pretty tight.

As for your question about what he'd do with KK or JJ, that's kind of the question being asked here, haha. It's possible he has A8s, 87s, 98s, maybe some more 8s... I'd maybe discount 98s and 87s cuz he flats them, but he could easily have 86s or T8s. But remember we're probably at least slightly -EV vs. any range of 8s given that we never win the pot against them.

DennisG

Vekked;298264 wrote
As for your question about what he'd do with KK or JJ, that's kind of the question being asked here, haha. It's possible he has A8s, 87s, 98s, maybe some more 8s... I'd maybe discount 98s and 87s cuz he flats them, but he could easily have 86s or T8s. But remember we're probably at least slightly -EV vs. any range of 8s given that we never win the pot against them.

With this being said...then it's a *FML* fold...makes sense. We just aren't gonna be good enough times...

(I am probably still rebuying cause I don't think that fast...)

Cerberus

Results?

Personally, being a terrible player, I'm breaking my finger from mashing the call button. Having read all of your, and everyone else's, thoughts, I now have a headache but feel like a better player for having read this.

Movowelling

Cerberus;298393 wroteResults?

Personally, being a terrible player, I'm breaking my finger from mashing the call button. Having read all of your, and everyone else's, thoughts, I now have a headache but feel like a better player for having read this.

Yeah me too...well, maybe not the better part. Sometimes i read this board and i imagine all this strategy being explained this way (the first minute or so worth)
Fandango Skydiving Scene, Pt. 2 - YouTube

Vekked

Anyone else before results?

betrthanphil

Didnt read all the posts, but I cant find a fold here ever the way this hand was played. I mean by the river our hand is unrepped to that point that he prob think AK is the nuts. Meaning there are a few hands he can jam for value here. AA,AK, KJ. I feel like a check flop smallish bet on turn and jam river cant be a monster. Just doesnt make sense to me. If maybe he bet bigger on the turn to like 28 I could see it. You have to take out some hands from his range based on the action. I really only think we lose to JJ or a better 8. KK is highly unlikely because what is he gonna put you on to call, no way he can put you on an 8 with the image you have and the line you took here. If he has KK then a K in your hand becomes highly unlikely. I also would expect 33 to bet flop here but could be wrong as dont know much about villian. But all in all, I fist pump snap if im playing a hand this way, against a good villian.

Vekked

betrthanphil;298418 wroteDidnt read all the posts, but I cant find a fold here ever the way this hand was played. I mean by the river our hand is unrepped to that point that he prob think AK is the nuts. Meaning there are a few hands he can jam for value here. AA,AK, KJ. I feel like a check flop smallish bet on turn and jam river cant be a monster. Just doesnt make sense to me. If maybe he bet bigger on the turn to like 28 I could see it. You have to take out some hands from his range based on the action. I really only think we lose to JJ or a better 8. KK is highly unlikely because what is he gonna put you on to call, no way he can put you on an 8 with the image you have and the line you took here. If he has KK then a K in your hand becomes highly unlikely. I also would expect 33 to bet flop here but could be wrong as dont know much about villian. But all in all, I fist pump snap if im playing a hand this way, against a good villian.

The big question for me is if he has a bluff, why doesn't he c-bet the absolute nut flop to c-bet? It seems a bit of a stretch to think that he would check back planning to bet small on the turn and shove >2x pot on the river as opposed to just c-betting and folding out a bunch of hands. It just doesn't seem like a likely line to take as a bluff unless he's turning QQ or TT into one.

Also if he has KK here, and I call his turn bet, my range is almost purely bluff catchers that are either not calling a river bet no matter what he bets, or are calling nearly any river bet. I think if he has KK here he played it pretty sick, it would maybe only be slightly better if he bet flop small, checked back turn, and jammed any river regardless of action, I think that maybe makes it more believable for him to have air, I just think 95% of players will c-bet a bone dry K-high flop with all their bluffs in position because they have so much FE and the flop is pretty great for his range given he only 3-bets 6%.