actyper;234273 wroteI think your trying to complicate this especially in a $3 tourney where just playing solid poker can get you some wins. Can you really expect the BB to just call a cutoff range with AT-AQ, 77+? I think you got to take your chance and assume he missed the flop and will fold to a cbet. Also when you check back there, I'm sure he's going to lead out the turn tons, and theres no way I'd enjoy bet call, bet call turn and river. Giving up control of the hand sucks.
No, this isn't the range I expect him to call, I expect him to call our flop bet with a lot of that stuff, like any pair and good A-high. His range is obviously really wide, and c-betting here with any 2 cards on this flop will show a profit, it's just that we should play our hand like it's napkins when it's not.
We have a good hand with showdown value. All of our bets should be accomplishing (for the most part), getting worse hands to call, or better to fold, that's basic betting theory, and in this case it's not happening. We can just check it down to river and win most of the time, or lose less when we're behind and he peels our c-bet but would otherwise check it down, and we can always re-evaluate when we hit a pair on the turn/riv or something.
We don't have enough info to think that villain's gonna bluff you off the best hand on the turn a large % of the time, why are we playing scared that he's gonna play perfectly against us when we check back? If we're afraid of this, why aren't we afraid that he'll check-raise bluff us here? If he does lead on the turn, we fold most of the time and take note of it. It's not like this pot is the absolute end of the tournament if we don't win it. Win the tournament, not the pot.