The 77 spot

Wetts1012

So we are sitting 6/13 in the early $163 on FTP. First is 54K. 6th is 10K. 13th is 1.5K.

Not much history with villain. OPR shows to be a winning reg.

Villain is 33/26 over ~40 hands.

This was posted elsewhere and got a significant response in one direction. I want to gauge the pulse of this forum in regards to where the strategy level sits here.

Whats your play, and why......

Full Tilt Poker $150,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1500 - 6 players

BTN: t325598 M = 12.06
Hero (SB): t334113 M = 12.37
BB: t324835 M = 12.03
UTG: t830186 M = 30.75
MP: t713747 M = 26.44
CO: t163823 M = 6.07

Pre Flop: (t27000) Hero is SB with 7

1 fold, MP raises to t36000, CO requests TIME, 2 folds, Hero ....

GTA Poker

I set mine you have the correct odds and are still in a similar position with your stack if you miss.

DennisG

We are playing oop...and don't want to be forced with a cbet if we miss, so likely I am gonna flat here...shove any sort of dry flop, 1/2 to 2/3rds bet if we hit and hope he got a piece of it..

ReefAquarium

GTA Poker;213524 wroteI set mine you have the correct odds and are still in a similar position with your stack if you miss.

I like to have 25x to 30x to set mine.
Here we have about 300,000 back and need to make a 30,000 call so we are not getting as much as I'd like.

DennisG

ReefAquarium;213531 wroteI like to have 25x to 30x to set mine.
Here we have about 300,000 back and need to make a 30,000 call so we are not getting as much as I'd like.

While I tend to agree, are we gonna wait for aces all night? there are 13 left..half of whom are gonna have their sphincters puckered...and the other half willing to play..
It costs us 2 laps to flat here, are we gonna see another decent hand in the next 12?

What is our image? is the other factor of course...if we are in the puckered sphincter cat. at this stage of the game, we could probably shove and take it now...but, this probably our last chance to play poker, and last chance at his stack without a race..

I am presuming Wetts hasn't been crazy tight here, and a flat call will put big stack on edge...

then again...I could be out to lunch...I am curious the "proper" line here..

GTA Poker

ReefAquarium;213531 wroteI like to have 25x to 30x to set mine.
Here we have about 300,000 back and need to make a 30,000 call so we are not getting as much as I'd like.

I like to have 20x as well, but 8x and you have the right odds

compuease

GTA Poker;213551 wroteI like to have 20x as well, but 8x and you have the right odds

That's only if you assume he'll double you up if you hit... Now if he also has another caller, then I would take the odds... In this situation I re-raise or fold...

jdAA88

lmfao at thinking you can setmine here. You need at least 20x the raise to be able to setmine in mtts (general guidelines). I've seen where you posted this, seen the views of those who responded, and I'm pretty sure I know how you played this. But even before I saw all the views, I felt like this is a fold. 77 is like, pretty much the toughest hand to be dealt in this spot imo because it's so close, but I think what makes it a fold is that there are 13 left, you obv have an edge over most of the field left, and although you're short, you can probably find a better spot.

DennisG

jdAA88;213559 wrote You need at least 20x the raise to be able to setmine in mtts (general guidelines). .

Which, to my thinking, is exactly why we should be doing it..he won't even come close to putting us on a med pair..he will wonder wtf we could flat call with other than a trap...he needs to hit the flop hard to call a shove by us.

[deleted]

you could set mine and thats about it but its not a lucrative play i don't think....i cringe and fold.

Perfdude

Call and if its a low board bet straight out 45k. I would think his range is a little wide in that position. I think you have enough of a stack to play around a little bit.

BB is the one that would worry me the most for a possible reraise.

Richard~

Either I shove cause 7s is the nuts agains his mp opening range or I fold cause I think I can find a better spot to grind my way into the ft. Normally I would shove but since villain is a winning reg he should know he's raising into two perfect reship stacks, he's not gonna be light here...most of the time.

Unless we're being leveled I think I'd have to fold, we're not getting the odds to setmine. I'd be surprised if we have fold equity here since the reg is never raising light, so we're hoping for a flip if we shove

Wetts1012

I honestly cant fathom wanting to play a flop here. It never entered my mind. We are far far too shallow to setmine, and doing any kind of stop and go only widens his calling range. 3b/folding is also horrible.

So we are playing shove or fold imo. So based on all the information you have, shove or fold?

Richard~

Fold. I get it in with 9s or 10s+ since I'm beating the legit part of his range but it really feels like villain has to realise he's gonna get shoved on here. We do however need to push edges and chip up a bit soon but I like a fold with the intention of looking for good reship spots soon that doesn't smell bad.

If BB was the big stack at the table I'd be more willing to shove. Really curious to hear what others think about this spot

actyper

Doesn't look like other stack sizes was ever mentioned here. UTG already folded, the other stack size mp fears. Everybody else is average and waiting it out to make the FT. MP range here is huge!!!!! I think I would shove but I'd put my hoodie over my eyes and pray for no call.

Richard~

actyper;213570 wroteDoesn't look like other stack sizes was ever mentioned here. UTG already folded, the other stack size mp fears. Everybody else is average and waiting it out to make the FT. MP range here is huge!!!!! I think I would shove but I'd put my hoodie over my eyes and pray for no call.

It's funny, I think I disagree with every single thing you just said ^^'

JimmyHo

congrats on getting this far and getting a shot at 54k. Must be nice!

Out of position, playing this hand is kind of tough. You really need to hit the flop hard or you are likely folding to any bet if any over cards come. If you hit your set, you have a good chance of doubling up and making it to the final table (and cashing). Short handed 77 is a decent hand so I would likely call and see a flop. I still have plenty of chips if I miss the flop but at this late stage in the tournament, taking a chance to double up is likely worth it. No guts, no glory.

btw, how many total chips in play? not sure if many short stacks at the other table.

Hobbes

I'm thinking I push here but I need a bit more info?

What do you feel your table image is?
Are you concerned about the BB at all?
Are you willing to flip?

If your image is TAGish and you are not worried about the BB, then ship it.

Villain would be playing a pot for almost 1/2 his stack.
You take away his odds to call with overs as he would be calling 290k into a 390k pot (if I did my math right)

Wetts1012

So this is one of those spots where I legitimately didnt know what to do.

As stated I think the worst possible play here is flatting. It is fold or shove.

So, I shove:

1) Villain is opening 26% of his range, and probably calling 8-10% of that if I ship. I figured theres alot of equity in shoving given that hes only calling 1/3 of his opening range. I want a fold, and this accomplishes that. If I get called, I flip for a top 2 stack in alot of cases.

2) I have a perfect reship stack (as Richard stated). If villain has some kind of sick metagame where he took this into account, so be it - hes better than me if thats the case.

3) Im playing standard 18/15 nittish. I think my image helps the situation.

4) I dont hate a fold here. I do think that if we dont play back when we are playing basically 20BB poker we are gonna get runover.

So I shipped, and prayed, and lost a flip to AQ. Again, I think I basically ran into the best of his opening range. That said, for some reason I dont feel too bad about it. I think I made the best possible play in this situation.

Was it a 10K-20K flip? Probably. sigh.

Hobbes

Still like the shove. He folds way more than he calls here.