Big Mike
BBC Z;168222 wroteHoly shit 5 bets is now a big pot? Are you retarded or just mathematically un-inclined?
Edit: I propose this thread is renamed: "Why people will always suck at limit poker".
5.5 big bets is not a
huge pot, but it is worth trying to win. If you are ahead you will also get another bet on the river, more if you improve.
I don't want to insult you, honest - but the difference between being an OK limit hold'em player (quite possibly still a winning player mind you), and an expert who crushes the game is that on this hand the expert makes this c/r.
(ignoring the fact that an expert wouldn't play the hand in the first place, most likely).
And people will suck at limit poker only if they refuse to learn from those with more knowledge/experience. Hopefully at least the OP is learning that there's often a lot more to winning LHE play than capping a boat.
actyper
5.5 bb pot is a nice pot to win in limit.
lunatic
Been a while since I played limit. As played I definitely CR the turn. I will CR the turn there with much less since LP could be betting light after it has been checked twice to him.
If I had not checked the turn, I'm still not a 100% convinced that CR is the best play here. Unless the 2/5 game at Brantford has changed, will anyone bet a draw here? I think if you are still good on this board then it gets checked around again. If you are behind you probably get 3bet. I think I lead out in order to get some money in the pot. I would call a raise but fold if it was more than 1 bet to me.
Raise the river a few times but if he keeps reraising you then you gotta consider a higher boat.
DrTyore
BBC_Z is right
moose
DrTyore is wrong. Thanks for the intelligent contribution.
Pot $19 + $5 call = 5:1 for any draw to call, and successively better odds with every call that follows, until finally the guy with 22 decides, what the hell, lets call to hit my 2 outer. Give me a break.
Pot $19 + $10 c/r = 3:1, incorrect for draws to call
There is 5 other people left to call in this pot. Are we going to make it correct or incorrect to call? Are we there to make the other players make the mistakes or not?
ReefAquarium
We want to win this 5.5 big bet pot
BBC Z;168222 wroteHoly shit 5 bets is now a big pot? Are you retarded or just mathematically un-inclined?
Edit: I propose this thread is renamed: "Why people will always suck at limit poker".
BBC Z, You need to review/improve your understanding of limit poker.
There are two kind of difficult points here.
Why we checkraise the turn:
In this situation we risk losing an extra bet checkraising, in return we try to win this pot by offering bad odds to the other players. It's okay to risk losing an extra bet in order to try to win the 5 big bet pot.
We don't open bet the turn because betting doesn't protect our hand, checkraising does. ...
Edit: For those who are new to limit poker "big bet" means the bets on the turn and river. Limit poker talks about pot size in terms of big bets on the turn and the river.
DrTyore
Okay let's look at it this way...
FACT: 7 players, so we're against 6 other hands
FACT: This is limit 2/5 at BCC
FACT: Current pot size (on turn) is $14
FACT: The dude insta-checked anyways, so this is moot, but....
We have 2 pair (2nd and bottom) on a board of J-8-10-4 (assume rainbow)
Since just betting out would likely cause cancer anyways, we'll look at the debate b/w the two options of c/r and c/call.
Scenario 1: We check / raise
POT: $19 (after his bet)
"Pros"
- Gets us to heads up
- Puts MINIMUM 4 more BB (his call of c/r, and his re-raise on the river* as shown)
- Taking away odds for hands to draw to beat us
"Cons"
- We have a very weak two pair, and our c/r - if called - is putting money in behind a LOT here (7-9, 9-Q, J-8, J-10, and any set that was slowplayed), meaning we have at best 4 outs to these, and at worse 2.
- We're putting in $10 to win $19
- We're chasing out any other callers with a weaker hand
ASIDE:
- We are at least calling the river with two pair, meaning we are risking MINIMUM $15 to win a pot that was $19
- *he may not be re-raising us on the river with a c/r since it screams set to me
Scenario 2: We check / call
POT: $19 (after his bet)
"Pros"
- Only costs us one BB to win 4 BB.
- If even one caller comes along, the pot becomes 6BB
- Minimizes our losses when we are behind drawing to 2-4 outs, since we're still calling the river
"Cons"
- Allows any hands we're beating to draw out on us (10-9, J-9, QK, PP)
- "Only" puts in one BB from the raiser
ASIDE:
- We are risking $10 to win a pot that was $19
- More likely to get the original check raise from him
Now, let's look at how this may have turned out
Scenario 1: Best case scenario
We c/r, getting one call from the raiser with a worse hand and we hold, or we suck out on the river meaning he puts in 4 more bets, +$20.
Scenario 1: Worst case scenario
We c/r, and get re-raised by any hand better than ours. Now with the pot at $40, we've gotta call for 8:1 odds, but we're at best drawing to 4 outs to the river, making us a 9:1 dog, we still have to call river with 2 pair when we are facing a $5 into $50
Summary: In best case scenario, we win $20 more, in worst case scenario, we're putting in $20 behind. --> push
Scenario 2: Best case scenario
We c/c, trying to entice another caller. If we're ahead, we win 2 more BB out of the caller (if we bet the river and he calls). However, if we get even one caller of the remaining 3, we win 2 more bets from them too. Further, if the hand plays out as it did, we may even get 3BB from each of the others.
Scenario 2: Worst case scenario
We c/c/, don't get a caller, and we're behind. We still call the river bet with two pair. We have now spent $10, in an attempt to win what was a $19 pot.
Summary: Best case scenario, we win $20 more (with one caller) with potential for $30 more. Worst case scenario, we lose $10.
And this is why I agree with BBCZ. It's the limit equiv. of big hand / big pot, small hand / small pot. 2nd and bottom pair is shit in a 7 way pot IMO.
Mark
BBC Z
It's okay to risk losing an extra bet in order to try to win the 5 big bet pot.
What's better? a 70% chance to win a 5.5 bet pot or a 50% chance of winning an 12bb pot? because in your scenario, you fight for a 5 bet pot, in my scenario I fight for a 10+ bet pot.
When you checkraise, you ensure that you are playing against the best remaining hand who is likely way ahead or way behind you. When you call, you entice all those other medium one pair hands and overcards to play.
Here's a concept you probably forgot. More players means bigger pots. Also, more players mean you win more with less risk (My way sees two bets go in on the turn/river, with the loss of the extra checkraise bet made up for the 1-2 players who come along for the ride).
kk_rush
Thanks everybody for the replies. I wasn't expecting this much discussion.
In retrospect after reading the responses, I agree that the turn check/raise is the best move here....and now I feel a bit stupid about not thinking about it at that point in time.
After the J-8-4-10 rainbow board after the turn card, there was $14 in the pot from the 7 limpers. It was checked around to the villian who bets making the pot $19 dollars....so about 4 BB's. If I check-raise now in this spot, it would have folded around to him who, at the least, would have called. It is also possible, since he had the made straight, that he would have re-raised. At this point, I could narrow down his hand range right here. If I put him on the made straight (which I suspect I would have done given the image he had), I was facing a pot now of 19 + 10(my CR) + 5(his call) = $34 or $39 dollars if he re-raised.....so about 7 to 8 BB back to me.
If I put him on the straight, I now know that realistically I have 4 full outs (the other 10's and 4's) so my pot odds would have to be 46/4 or about 11.5 to 1 to call. I would have picked up the extra 3-4 BB on the river via implied odds given his actions on the river with the insta-raising he was doing....since at Brantford there isn't a cap when the pot is heads up.
Yep...I left money on the table here.
moose
DrTyore;168277 wroteOkay let's look at it this way...
FACT: 7 players, so we're against 6 other hands
FACT: This is limit 2/5 at BCC
We have 2 pair (2nd and bottom) on a board of J-8-10-4 (assume rainbow)
- We have a very weak two pair, and our c/r - if called - is putting money in behind RARELY here (7-9, 9-Q, J-8, J-10, and any set that was slowplayed), meaning we have at best 4 outs to these, and at worse 2.
Mark
Thanks for the analysis (serious) but I fixed your key errors.
zunni74
Grunch:
I agree with the C/R, though can see the point for the C/C as well.
Hands we are behind (that make sense with the action as given) include:
JT, T8, 44's, 97, Q9, 88
Hands that are likely calling a 1-bet (because we C/C),
Some 4 outers are calling (Qx 7x), hands like KJ, QJ, KT, QT, A8, K8 are also likely calling, plus all the hands below that would call a raise
I guess my question is, by checking/calling the turn, how many hands that have hit a piece of the board will be sticking around and calling a single bet to see the river, which could beat us on the river (hands like A8/K8/Q8 or something, that hit a bigger 2 pair on the end, or 4 outer) because we've allowed them to stick around and see a card for 1 bet. I don't know the answer to that question but have seen it enough at the 2/5 tables to know there is a % of people.
Hands that may call a c/r but we are currently ahead of include:
AT, AJ, A4, KQ, pretty much 9x (chase that 8 outer, it is 2/5 limit after all)
While a 5.5 bb pot is not a monster, neither is our hand. It's decent, has some limited opportunities to improve but hands that call the turn that we beat are pretty obvious and we can tell pretty quickly if the river helps them. We also don't know how many other previous callers will call 2 bets cold.
What's folding here:
Pretty much every thing else.
--------------------------
So after all that, the really big question is what do we do when the player re-raises us (assuming everyone else folds), it really allows us to see where we are and know that we are likely behind to 4 clean outs (he's got the made straight, high or idiot end). It really helps define our hand.
---------------------------
I also ran some math about where we stand in both cases
quick pokerstove analysis against 1 other random hand I'm about a 61% favourite (mixing in the hands that we are losing to and would likely call a C/R in that situation):
Board: Jd 8c 4h Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.159% 61.05% 00.12% 1028695 1973.50 { Tc4s }
Hand 1: 38.841% 38.73% 00.12% 652575 1973.50 { 88, 44, AJs-ATs, A4s, KQs, Q9s, JTs, T8s, 92s+, AJo-ATo, A4o, KQo, Q9o, JTo, T8o, 92o+ }
I also see that against 7 other players with our 2 pair, we are a 33% dog to win the hand against 7 other random hands:
Board: Jd 8c 4h Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.643% 32.79% 00.86% 59906 1563.00 { Tc4s }
Hand 1: 09.362% 08.08% 01.29% 14755 2350.58 { random }
Hand 2: 09.487% 08.19% 01.30% 14960 2374.00 { random }
Hand 3: 09.477% 08.16% 01.32% 14906 2409.67 { random }
Hand 4: 09.443% 08.15% 01.29% 14891 2362.50 { random }
Hand 5: 09.515% 08.20% 01.31% 14984 2400.92 { random }
Hand 6: 09.596% 08.29% 01.31% 15143 2389.33 { random }
Hand 7: 09.475% 08.15% 01.33% 14880 2432.00 { random }
So to clarify: I do expect the pot that you are winning from the 7 handed hand is much larger, but you are approx. 50% as likely to win it. However, another point to be considered is you are only contributing 1/7 of the cash for the big pot and 1/2 the remaining bets for the smallish pot.
Big Mike
I did a similar analysis with a more defined range for the bettor. I gave him a range of hands that both would have let the flop check through and now have a made hand on the turn. I excluded overpairs and Jx top pairs, but included sets who might be making an idiotic slowplay.
JJ-77,ATs,A8s,A4s,KTs,QTs-Q8s,T7s+,97s+,94s,87s,ATo,A8o,A4o,KTo,K8o,QTo-Q8o,T7o+,97o+,87o
Vs that range and 5 random hands our equity is 31% to the bettor's 25%, and 8.5% for everyone else.
Since we have an equity edge a raise is clearly correct, and we don't mind any number of callers. If we are 3bet we can assume we are behind, and possible c/fold some rivers.
Vs a passive player's 3bet on the turn, I think we could fold river Q's, 9's J's 8's. A case could be made for folding any non-T or 4 if we know the bettor well enough (wouldn't 3bet a pair+draw).
It's important to note that while us just calling may let other hands in, increasing the size of the pot, that is not guaranteed. Therefore we may simply be missing out on value by ending up hu on the river with the bettor, where we need to bet our boat and might not even get called, let alone raised, by many of the bettor's possible hands (that would certainly have called the turn c/r.)
zunni74
Big Mike;168348 wrote
It's important to note that while us just calling may let other hands in, increasing the size of the pot, that is not guaranteed. Therefore we may simply be missing out on value by ending up hu on the river with the bettor, where we need to bet our boat and might not even get called, let alone raised, by many of the bettor's possible hands (that would certainly have called the turn c/r.)
Valid point, though highly unlikely at the 2/5 limit game. Most players will spend 1 big bet on the turn to try to hit their draw on the river, so 6 players folding is almost certainly not going to happen. Though 1-2 folds is certainly possible.
Big Mike
zunni74;168350 wroteValid point, though highly unlikely at the 2/5 limit game. Most players will spend 1 big bet on the turn to try to hit their draw on the river, so 6 players folding is almost certainly not going to happen. Though 1-2 folds is certainly possible.
Well, 5 folds is possible too, because that's what happened to the OP ;)
And since they're inclined to call, they may call with decent draws anyway, and each of their calls can then make us twice as much.
zunni74
Big Mike;168351 wroteWell, 5 folds is possible too, because that's what happened to the OP ;)
And since they're inclined to call, they may call with decent draws anyway, and each of their calls can then make us twice as much.
No argument from me :) WP sir
BBC Z
Since we have an equity edge a raise is clearly correct, and we don't mind any number of caller
"Since we have an equity edge, a raise is clearly correct as it will force everyone who is putting in negative equity to fold."
Make sense? Nope.
Having an equity edge means that we are trying to maximize the NUMBER of bets that are entering the pot. If you think that raising will do that, then you do it. It's not a 'cause and effect' relationship.
Big Mike
BBC Z;168366 wrote"Since we have an equity edge, a raise is clearly correct as it will force everyone who is putting in negative equity to fold."
Make sense? Nope.
Having an equity edge means that we are trying to maximize the NUMBER of bets that are entering the pot. If you think that raising will do that, then you do it. It's not a 'cause and effect' relationship.
Yeah, I may not have been entirely clear there. I really meant that a raise cannot be wrong. There is a time that one would want overcalls instead of the raise. On this board, however, anyone calling is drawing live against our hand. Many of those hands will call two cold, either correctly or incorrectly. If you want 5 overcalls for one bet, don't you want 5 overcalls for 2 bets?
BBC Z
I really meant that a raise cannot be wrong
Ok strike 2. Of course it can be wrong.
Big Mike
BBC Z;168368 wroteOk strike 2. Of course it can be wrong.
By wrong I mean it cannot be -ev given the ranges assigned to the opponents, which I believe are fair. It may not be the
highest possible ev, of course that's what we're debating.
payperview
The correct play is to not play 2/5 at BCC where its a horrible game to start with. How do you fold preflop, your always getting odds. If you want to play bingo with 6 other players you can visit my grandma on Wednesdays with her friends and win a toaster or slippers.