herschelw;171632 wrotePot odds arent important when survival is the only thing rewarded. If you're among the biggest stack in a double or nothing you shouldnt be playing a hand. Let's say we're 6 handed(5 get double thier money) I have 7k chips, a 2500 chip stack shoves on my BB from the button and there's a 1200 chip stack and an 800 chip stack at the table with blinds at 200/400. I MUST fold pocket aces here. This is basic satellite strategy and it can be easily mathematically proven that it's the best play with an ICM calculator. I will cash a higher % of the time when I fold than when I call.
To crank some numbers. assume the other 2 guys have 1000,
Your ICM equity is
Player Name
Chips
ICM Equity
0.1997
1st: 0.5362nd: 0.2823rd: 0.1254th: 0.0455th: 0.012
0.1918
1st: 0.1792nd: 0.2613rd: 0.2404th: 0.1765th: 0.104
0.1651
1st: 0.0862nd: 0.1363rd: 0.1844th: 0.2105th: 0.210
0.1363
1st: 0.0572nd: 0.0933rd: 0.1334th: 0.1755th: 0.225
0.1535
1st: 0.0712nd: 0.1143rd: 0.1604th: 0.1975th: 0.225
0.1535
Lets say you lose with AA.
Player Name
Chips
ICM Equity
0.1986
1st: 0.3572nd: 0.3083rd: 0.1964th: 0.0975th: 0.035
0.1986
1st: 0.3572nd: 0.3083rd: 0.1964th: 0.0975th: 0.035
0.1639
1st: 0.0862nd: 0.1143rd: 0.1784th: 0.2195th: 0.223
0.1347
1st: 0.0572nd: 0.0783rd: 0.1254th: 0.1795th: 0.235
0.1521
1st: 0.0712nd: 0.0963rd: 0.1534th: 0.2045th: 0.237
0.1521
You've lost .0011 equity trying to gain .0003 equity.
So you need 3 and 2/3 odds to make this call.
AA will beat his range 3.66 to 1 so it looks profitable on a 1 on 1.
But this doesn't factor in the chance that some (idiot) will call.
If they do then you get a free ride. ...
So if you assume sensible players (never true) then you can call with AA getting a very slight advantage. If you assume real humans playing behind you, then fold.