pkrfce9;164514 wroteanyone else think 95 screams value but 100 whispers bluff? anyone? anyone? bueller?
That 9 is too round. I like 77 for a bluff!!
I think you have to call this. If this is all you know about the guy.
He either hit the J set on the river or he is bluffing. That's what I think.
I could see him with A J sooted though.
If you bet on the flop to a tight player who just hit top pair with a decent kicker, don't you think he would call a flop raise?
I mean, sure, he's not on the button, and you would think he would put a little bet in there to see where he stands, but he also might think you are just betting because you in in good position and you sensed weakness. He might think you have nothing.
Then, the turn comes and he checks, cause he wants to see if you bet again to see if you have anything. Afterall, he's thinking you could have AK.
So, the river comes and he hits two pairs. Now he has you and you played into him perfectly. He probably would have folded his AJ on the turn if you bet.
Anyway, that's what I think he's got. I don't feel like he would be slow playing a set and he wasn't on a draw on the flop, so I"m thinking he has AJ+ and sensed weakness from you. I don't think he's bluffing, but you still have a chance, and you have to call.
On second thought, maybe he does have a set. Maybe he wanted to check raise you on the turn. I bet that's it!!! He had 99, didn't he? Then, on the river he wanted to put in 100 in hopes of what???? To make you fold?
Nah, he's bluffing on second thought. If he had a monster, why would he be putting in that large of a raise? He would be forcing you to fold. He sensed weakness. I think you have him most of the time.
Again, I go back to calling!!! That's the answer!!!
EDIT!!!!
Man, this is a tough one.
Now I'm thinking about why he didn't bet on the turn. If he had a monster, he already saw a bet come out on the flop, so why not bet on the turn and control the table? Although, if he's tight, why call the river bet? He's not on a draw, cause there aren't any flush or straight draw possibilities, right (at least I don't think a straight)? So, he has like what, 2-6 outs (if maybe an inside straight)? If he's tight, you have to assume he looks at outs and all that.
What could he be putting you on? A set? Top pair? What does he think you have?
So, if he's only got 2-6 outs, is he really going to call this bet? There's an A on the board and he calls a decent raise with nothing? I can't see that happening. Not unless you gave him something that made him think you had nothing, or hit only top pair or something.
I'm going to go check to see if you raise pre-flop. I believe you said you did, but I want to see the numbers.
I don't think it's a full bluff, but I bet he has AT+. Frig, this is a hard one.