Vandal;165082 wroteYour premise is correct, but your conclusion is... Tenuous... It's accurate (not mathematically) in this case, but it doesn't apply evenly to all suited cards. But yes, your way of calculating is accurate.
"Suited" becomes exponentially more important, the worse your starting hand is.
Observe:
Let's say you know your opponent has 9/9.
You have AK, unsuited. You have a 44% chance to win the hand. 1.27:1 pot odds. You need to be getting 1.27 dollars for every dollar you put in for this to be the correct call.
Now you have AK suited. You have a 47% chance to win the hand. You have 1.13:1 pot odds. An increase of roughly 7%.
You can see that Suited vs. Unsuited has an effect, but not a drastic one, on your decision.
Now Consider:
You have 72, unsuited. You have an 11.7% chance of winning the hand. 7.5:1 pot odds to make the call.
You have 72 suited. You have a 16% chance of winning the hand. 5.25:1 pot odds to make the call. An increase of 45%.
Clearly, suit matters. In fact, it matters dramatically more for poorer starting hands.
So, in summary:
Suit should have virtually no effect on your decision process with Strong hands. But it should have a dramatic one with poor hands.
I don't know how much I like this way of thinking.
What you're saying is if I were to have two hands (A and B). You have 1% chance of winning with hand A and 2% with B, you have just increased your chances by 100%. The increase of chance shouldn't be represented in this way, in my opinion.
I don't see how 11.7% is all that much worse than 17%.
Also, a dramatic one with poor hands? What happens if someone else has a higher flush? Also, you have to look at how many other people are in the hand.
Lets say you get dealt 2s 3s and the flop comes out Qs Kh Ts. Are you going to call with 8 other people in the flop because you have 9 outs to the flush? Lets say you hit the flush on the turn and someone bets like mad. Are you going to call and go all-in? What are the chances that one of those other 8 players have two spades?
Now, lets say you have AK of spades and the same thing happens. You're hoping someone has two spades.
Lets say you have AKos in the same situation. You're likely going to fold to any decent raise with only top pair and the nut kicker.
Lets say you have 23os. I would hope you would fold. But if having lower suited connectors makes them that much more valuable, shouldn't you then be playing 23 suited?
I can only see a straight with no flush possibilities returning a lot of money with 23 suited, or the straight flush, which is highly unlikely.
So, the fact that you get 23 and it is suited shouldn't really make your pre-flop action any different than if they weren't suited.
Does this make sense, or am I completely off the map here?
