WSOP 2005 fun - main event final table predictions
Thought I would try out some sportsbooks and place some wagers. For varying reasons, here are my picks. I tell myself, you don't have to like them, they just have to win. Feel free to post yours or critique...
ivey
juanda
harrington
esfandiari
ferguson
hellmuth
harman
corkins
boeken
ivey
juanda
harrington
esfandiari
ferguson
hellmuth
harman
corkins
boeken
Comments
Jarrett
Fischman
Oops. I guess requests can be made to the sportsbook.
Having spent a significant amount of time with these guys at the WSOP preliminary events though, I can say that they are relaxed, and focused. That is a very, very powerful combination in high-stakes poker tournaments.
And as for Fischman, well, I'm just going on his results. He won event #2 last year, and came second (I think) in the same event this year. Clearly, he's doing something right.
Jarrett
Hellmuth
Seidel
Brunson (sentimental favourite)
Doug Lee
Jason Sagle
Gavin Smith
Negreanu
Or, one of three players from Saskatoon that I know who will be playing the event.
random guy #2 from the internet (poker stars)
random guy #3 from the internet (poker stars)
random guy #4 from the internet (full tilt)
random guy #5 from the internet (ultimate bet)
random guy #6 from the internet (party)
random guy #7 from the internet (site nobody's heard of)
Scharf
Jarrett
Armstrong (how quickly we forget - the man is a 6th place finisher)
(maybe a real pro will make it, but probably not)
I don't think we forgot, all indications are he's not playing this year.
Harrington
Negreanu
Ivey
Lederer
Hellmuth
Juanda
Luske
Deeb
Lindgren
ScottyZ
No votes for Layne Flack or Gus Hansen? I guess they would be on my list as far as the named players go. I'll take Ted Forrest and Alan Goehring as well.
Clearly. It's simply numbers. How many truly "big name" players are there? Maybe a hundered? A few hundred at best I think. The "rest of field" is about 6,000+. It's a very safe bet that a non-big name player will win.
Obviously Howard Lederer is a favourite to win the WSOP compared to the average individual PokerStars player. He is probably a favourite to win against the majority of individual PokerStars players. You then observe PokerStars online qualifiers (I do not mean "online qualifier" in the usual condescending way) Chris Moneymaker and Greg Raymer winning back to back WSOP main events. What's going on here? It's sheer numbers.
Basically, Howard Lederer, even being a top notch player, is a huge underdog to win the WSOP to (say) the combined group of PokerStars online qualifiers.
I considered both of these. I concluded that these guys (and similar) were probably too "high variance" to make it though a gigantic multi-day tourney. When Dan Harrington was the one who managed to work his way though the two largest WSOP fields ever to make the Top 4 back to back, it suggested to me a tournament style that might work well to wade through 6,000+ players.
With a lot of poor players in the field, players like Flack and Hansen are also far more likely than usual to make an aggressive move and get picked off by (what they'd probably perceive as) a wacky call. Players like Hansen & Flack are probably more effective playing against players who are actually afraid to lose their chips in a close situation.
I even considered leaving Negreanu off my list because of his variance style. But he's simply too sick.
I passed on Brunson just in case an old school chum of his shows up during the WSOP and wants to go out for nachos or something like that.
Probably my 11th pick.
I also gave a lot of thought to Josh Arieh. In the end, I decided that he seemed like too much of a jerk to be putting on any kind of list of players that I'd (sort of) be rooting for. I think, having actually put Phil Hellmuth on my list, that this may say a lot.
Gavin Smith also struck me as a bit of a dink on FSN's "Poker at the Plaza". So I haven't jumped on his particular bandwagon at this point.
I know that in both of these cases the "I'm only seeing what they decided to put on TV" thing is a factor. But my feeling is that a person of reasonable character can find it in themselves to put their best face forward during a televised poker tournament, not their worst.
And, do I think my favorite "Screaming Mattias" make it?
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
ScottyZ
Paul
He just made another final table in the 5k NLHE. He is as they say on fire.
As for the final table...
Gavin Smith - did i mention that he's on fire?
Hellmuth - For his Record 10th Bracelet? nobody would ever hear the end of it!
Teddy Forest - Too solid
Erik Seidel - Having a great WSOP
Josh Arieh - Cocky SOB! He is good though....Damn!
Now these two would be the sentimental choices along with good old Action Dan!
Doyle would be great, i still love watching him destroy Fischman last year. That was classic.
Good Luck Dave...and watch out for Ol' Doyle
Then there will be some Internet qualifiers.
BCC55...out
I love Hansen but there's no way he's getting through 6000+ players with his style.
He'll get caught for sure.
BCC55...out
I dunno. Paul does give a pretty convincing argument.
ScottyZ
Gavin's "table image" is to be sort of a clown, although I dont know why he'd be doing it at a final table where everyone would be somewhat familiar with his game. He's currently going for his first bracelet at the final table in a 5k no limit.
Hey, I was already convinced.
But that makes sense too.
ScottyZ
Scott Fischman
Gavin Smith
Michael Mizrachi
Howard Lederer
Eric Seidel
Devilfish
Dave Colclough
and a couple of online players.
2. Gavin Smith
3. Dewey Tomko
4. Michael Mizrachi
5. John Hennigan
6. Ted Forrest
7. David Pham
8. Kenna James
9. Allen Cunningham
10. Phil Hellmuth  :D
Scharf
Jarrett
another member of this forum (don't wanna play favourites here <ignore top two names when reading this comment>)
Chris Bigler
haveta go with Howard Lederer
some guy from Canada going by the nickname '88' who wins his seat from the DPC (after he wins his seat in, which he hasn't done yet - hey 'if you post it, it will come')
random internet qualifiers
Ivey had a huge year in tournaments as far as 10k+ events go as did Michael Mizrachi
Dan Harrington just seems to manage to get through big fields
i'm a little worried about Dan cuz he's an old guy
this year the main event will go for almost 9 days...maybe more
age will matter i think
Any takers?
Marcel Luske
Dan Harrington
John Juanda
Howard Lederer
Phil Hellmuth
TJ Cloutier
Scott Fischman
Chris Ferguson
Paul Phillips (I think he's unbanned now, isn't he?)
A Full Tilt Pro, Ferguson, Siedel, and Ivey are all playing amazing right now...and Ledger could easy make a splash
Jeff Campbell
Scott Fischman
Magithighs, for sure cashing this year
A top PokerStar player, Exclusive (Noah) is who I would most like to see. Edit: Jennicide is who I would most like to see but Noah is a rooting favourite.
A ex-Magic Player, they are already making it big and one will probably visit the final table.
One of Alfredo 'Toto' Leonidas, Maciek "Michael" Gracz, Phil Gordon, these guys are all red hot.
I really think that online players with a lot Sunday (ie Pokerstars $500,000 guarenteed) experience have the biggest edge since they have played the most with huge fields.
I would partake in a points pool. Say pick your ten seats at the final table one point for each right. Tie breaker = having the highest finisher at your final table.
$10 - $20 if there is some interest could be fun!
By the way, most of you have some real bad picks.
sweetjimmi's are easily best thus far, he may be tough to beat.
Ill play the pool for any amount, someone set it up quick.
top 50 ??? him and the other old guy TJ
Pokerkid