SNG short stack scenario
Was in a SNG on stars blinds are 200-400 and ante is 25. 3 handed. One huge stack and me and other guy. I post my small blind and have 75 left. The other short stack is at 385 and on the button. (All in next hand) but the big stack does not have to call him but probably will no matter what. I get dealt 33 and make the last call for my last 75. I think this is a pretty simple decision as 33 is better than average although does not dominate many hands(but there are a couple). My question is more what hands could/should u fold in this scenario. (Play any average or better hand ie q8 offsuit or better etc.)Maybe don't fold any hands as putting 75 into a pot for a chance to win 675. (I am sure this in not correct way to look at it as my increased chip position doesn't mean squat in the tourny but it does mean a little bit) What do majority of people think???
Comments
Yes me and the other short stack are basically playing for 2nd but if i fold and he wins the 50:50 next time i am still all in with 25 chips left on my Big blind. I have to win two 50:50 then to even think of getting 2nd and it still will be a long shot.
BBC
You think it is correct to play 23 or 27 when the other short stack is facing an all in 50:50 coin flip the next hand and if he loses I get 2nd. In a cash game i agree the call with any two is a no brainer but this is not so clear i don't think.
AS for the hand in question I could go both ways. Yikes I hope I didnt say that too load. I would probably take the opportunity and call. You are in proabably in a 52/48 chance for 800 chips and almost a guarantee on 2nd. I always aim for first thou. Same problem comes with a being dealt an AA or KK, AK when you have a 60% chance of backing into a seat into a high buyin in tourney. Do you stall and hope or would you take the Hand into battle? Some would fold. I would battle. How much was the buy in and Difference between 2nd and 3rd
You caught me. I didnt' read your entire OP
I've been in your situation before when I used to play freerolls, and my policy is that when you are this shortstacked, make sure you don't bust out before you have to. This idea is from TPFAP (Tournament Poker for Advanced Players).
In your situation, I would have folded the 33 and gambled that the all-in short stack busts and I move one rung up. This is a SnG and the big stack's got this thing in the bag, so theres 0.001% chance of winning but a pretty good chance that Big Stack calls the forced allin next hand.
Get ScottyZ in here and I think he can do the math to show that folding is higher EV than calling..
Yup, Whidden Hall Basement Rat 1997-2000. Heck, I had the presidental suite for 1998-2000..
The way I think of it is that it's pretty irrelevant whether you have $75 or $625 at the end of this hand. What matters is whether or not your short stacked opponent wins the next hand.
First of all, there is such a small chance of coming first place that it's hardly worth considering. I'd also assume that you fold nearly 100% of your hands if you see the next hand.
Your opponent will win the next hand 50% of the time, assuming that the large stack will not fold his SB. If your opponent loses the hand, you do Balki's dance of joy.
If your oppenent wins his BB hand (and this is the key I think) he will have $795 in chips and you will still be scheduled to blind out before him regardless of whether you have $50 or $600 at that point.
So, playing the 33, you have about a 25% chance of your opponent busting out next hand putting you in 2nd, a 25% chance of you having $575 and the BB versus his $760 on the SB two hands from the present, or a 50% chance of busting out immediately in 3rd.
Folding the 33 (and the next hand), you have about a 50% chance of finishing 2nd, and a 50% chance of being anted to death in 3rd.
Note that you have (approximately) a 50% chance of finishing 3rd in each case. Folding seems to maximize your outright chances of making it into 2nd (a full 50% of the time). Calling essentially breaks up this 50% slice of the pie into a 25% instant win (you win the 33 hand and your opponent loses his BB hand), or the additional 25% of the time when you find yourself mucking around in the $575 vs. $760 situation.
This is a great example of what would be a textbook play in any "normal" situation (e.g. a cash game, or a tournament when still far from a prize money jump) turning into something completely different in a particular tournament scenario where the payout structure matters.
ScottyZ
Thanx Scott
I think I finnally see the light. I knew this was a strictly theory question but after your explanation I cant beleive that I called. lol.  Where were you at 5:00 am this morning.  As an aside note i did have a dominating hand as oppentent has 3 5 offsuit. I m like a 65% fav to win the hand. But now after your explanation I think I fold even if I knew what his cards were. (and he hits his 5 on the flop