Likely EV vs. actual EV of calling on a flush or straight draw

TrophyAngler

I know everyone has run into the situation where they’ve hit a flush or open ended straight draw on the flop. Deciding whether to call on the flop is usually pretty easy as long as you are not facing an over bet since the implied EV should be positive even against a full pot bet. The situation I find most difficult is what to do on the turn when you miss? I understand the theory behind EV which basically says you would multiply 2 times your number of outs to determine your % chance to hit and then fold if it is showing negative EV. However, I’ve always wondered if this is how to properly assess the situation. In reality, based on this theory, you basically should always be folding unless you are facing a 1/3 pot bet which is still a borderline fold/call. What I wonder about is the EV which is only based on what is currently in the pot. This is where I wonder if the theory is broken. What if I can say with confidence that I could bet another half pot if I hit my flush or straight (let’s assume both of these are the nuts) and the villain will call? I feel like, a lot of people would call in this situation at microstakes and maybe even low stakes and it’s not an unrealistic expectation. Wouldn’t this mean that the true EV of hitting you flush or straight is actually a lot higher than theory dictates? If this is the case, does it not imply that in these situations with fishy type players, you should in fact call a bet (maybe even as high as full pot) on the turn? Maybe I’m crazy but just wondering if anyone else has had this thinking because it just seems like a waste to constantly be folding draws on the turn vs. 50-75% pot bets. Let me know your thoughts?

trigs

You're not crazy. That is called implied odds. That is, what are the chances that you hit your draw on the river and your opponent is still able to call a river bet. Obviously, implied odds are not able to be calculated exactly. You have to try to put your opponent on a range of hands and decide if you hit your draw, how many hands does opponent still call a river bet.

MrCaspan

The other thing is you can't play an EV only game. You have to add variance to it because if you play a perfect EV game and I know that, I'm going to exploit that So as Triggs said, you also had to take your implied odds as well as your read from the player as well as throw some variance in there 20-30% of the time. And sometimes you just have to pay to get information about a player.

thisORthat

Just float the flop then donk bet the turn . . .

TrophyAngler

Appreciate the responses. I will definitely consider implied odds going forward. Especially against fishy call stations 😆