effective odds

I've started getting used to figuring out my pot odds at the table. It actually took me awhile before I actually started to feel comfortable using it in practice. However, I think I haven't been using the correct odds and I think this is because I haven't been calculating effective odds. What I've basically been doing after the flop is figuring out my chances of winning after the remaining two cards come down and figuring out if my call on the flop fits those odds, not taking into account the extra round of betting on the turn. So for example, if I had a flush draw, I would figure out if I was getting better than 2:1 on just this call, and if I was I would call even though I'm not really getting 2:1 unless the turn is checked (am I making sense here?). This has led to situations in limit holdem where I figured it was correct to call on the flop, but not on the turn. Since I am basing my odds on the flop on whether I will win after both cards come down, it doesn't make much sense to decide to fold on the turn when I called the flop assuming I would see both cards. I assume I should be accounting for more when I decide whether to call on the flop.

So, what odds do you use to decide whether to call the flop? Do you calculate effective odds in practice? Is there an easy way to do this? I'm partly worried that calculating effective odds will take too long and annoy the other players. If you calculate effective odds, in limit holdem do you assume it will cost you one bet and do you assume the players who call the flop will call the turn? In no-limit, how do you guess as to what it will cost you to call on the turn if you miss?

Also, I'm wondering (and this is mostly for no-limit) whether you consider the impact of calling and the delayed bluff when you consider your odds? Often, or at least sometimes, a call on the flop will make your opponent slow down on the turn and allow you to take the pot away. The reason why I ask is that this is what I used to justify just figuring out immediate pot odds as opposed to effective odds. I figured that the possibility of me making the delayed bluff or of even having the best hand right now because my opponent was bluffing (none of which I really took into account in deciding my pot odds) cancelled out the extra odds I was giving myself by not calculating effective odds. Does this make any sense? Is this poor reasoning? How do you finally decide on your flop odds?

Comments

  • Since you're talking about pot odds, I'm going to go ahead and assume you're talking about limit poker. I think the question is, why are you assuming you won't face a turn bet? (or are you just trying to justify a flop call). I figure my odds based on improving by the next card (Ie. an OESD is ~5:1 to hit on the turn), as well you might be able to assume some small imlied odds (in limit), assuming you can gain extra bets in the later betting rounds. I don't put much if any value into being able to make a bluff on the turn when a scare card hits (I play mainly low-limit holdem, so bluffing in general turns out to be a losing proposition). I basically do the same evalutation on the turn, and if I do happen to get a free card, all the better. Crap, I just re-read your post saying the bluff on a scare card on the turn part wrt No-limit... All I can say is that it depends heavily on your opponent, your read of his play, his likely holdings, and his perceived table image of yourself.
  • Sorry... long overdue response.
    So, what odds do you use to decide whether to call the flop? Do you calculate effective odds in practice?

    On the flop I use a mix of effective and implied odds. And, I never really calculate them at the table. I did once, but having done it enough times I generally have a pretty good idea where I stand.

    Basically, look at the effective odds. Assume you have to call the turn as well. This is not really any harder than sorting out pot odds. If you are close, then you can probably make an implied odds call since you will be able to extract an extra bet from your opponent on the river.

    Also, I'm wondering (and this is mostly for no-limit) whether you consider the impact of calling and the delayed bluff when you consider your odds?


    I don't. I consider the two in isolation. I am not saying I am right, but I don't tend to mix the two. Either I am drawing because I think it's worth is OR I am taking the turn off with the full intention of taking the pot on the turn (in which case it helps to have a legitimate draw). In other words, if I have my opponent in a "rock that will bet the flop regardless and then quit" box I will call with any two and then scoop it up. That is a player read and is still an "odds" play but I don't tend to think of the size of the pot. I probably should. I tend to attempt it in small pots so I suppose that is considering the pot in a way.

    Is this poor reasoning? How do you finally decide on your flop odds?

    It might be because it sounds to me like you weren't giving some specific thought to THIS opponent in THIS situation.

    I don't think I have been much help. It might help to break your questions up into much smaller and more digestible pieces?
  • I think he understands how to determine if a draw is profitable on the turn, but doesn't know how to decide this on the flop. I'm exactly the same way and have been confused by sklansky's section on effective odds in theory of poker.
  • Thanks for the reply Dave. It is greatly appreciated. I actually felt it was quite helpful.

    The only thing I'm curious about is precisely what I need to take into account to properly figure out effective odds.

    If you don't mind, perhaps you could help me through an example. Suppose I am playing 10/20 limit and I am on the button. It is raised and there are five people in total in the hand, so there is $100 so far in the pot. Suppose it is checked to the person right before me, who bets. How would you calculate your effective odds? Would you figure it to be 130:30 or would you assume one of the other players will also call? And do you assume that anyone who calls the flop will also call the turn?Or do you know your opponents well enough to know whether they will call or not? Thanks again Dave.
  • Suppose I am playing 10/20 limit and I am on the button. It is raised and there are five people in total in the hand, so there is $100 so far in the pot. Suppose it is checked to the person right before me, who bets. How would you calculate your effective odds?

    This will be a tricky effective odds discussion since you will have trouble knowing, with certainty, what the other three players are going to do. Generally, plan for the "worst odds" and you will not be WRONG (although you may miss a few marginally profitable situations in which the effective odds of an extra caller or two move a play from losing to winning).

    At this point you are being offered $10 into a pot of $110.

    But, what will occur on future streets? You will have to call $20 on the turn against his bet making it, as you say, $30 into $130. And, $20 on the river against his bet making it $50 into $150. You are being offered 3-1 on a 4-1 prop. Fold.

    What about the other three players? Who knows. Better leave them out.

    Note also that if you will win one more bet on the river if you make your hand then the effective odds change. In other words if you KNOW this opponent has top pair and you KNOW that you will fold if you do not hit, but bet or raise raise if you do, then you are "effectively" being asked to call $30 into $150. You are getting 5-1 and you can continue.

    That is a nice, therotical discussion. But, what about the real world?

    In the real world, you do not KNOW your opponent has top pair. And, you do not know that all of your outs are good. What if he has a set? That's ugly. What if he has your kicker covered. Oh-oh. You hit your kicker on the river, raise and get re-raised. Oops you lost $90 instead of $50.

    Be careful that you are not using effective odds as an excuse to call. If it's really close, generally err on the side of caution. This is beacuse your assumptions are often wrong (e.g. assuming he has top pair and a kicker different than your own).

    Also note that pot odds in a pure sense are easy to understand becaue the variables are much more known: "Will I win? What are the odds?" But, effective odds (and implied odds) are a lot more difficult to sort through in the heat of combat because there are many more varaibles to consider -- how many playes will call? Will the pay off the river? Etc
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