Live: WPT500 UK, C$1.8 Million Guarantee

I have four U$850 bullets for the partypoker-sponsored WP500 UK, or ~C$3900. The guaranteed prize pool is £1,000,000, or ~C$1,800,000!

10% - $390 (no mark-up; depends on conversion from British pounds).
5% - $200
3% - $123
1% - $41
0.5% sweat equity - only $21.

I will refund for any unused bullets. For example, if I have a huge stack for Day 2 on my first bullet, then I will try to transfer/sell the remaining three entries and refund 3/4 of the BAP.

The first place prize in the first-ever WPT500 was $260,000, won by a recreational player. As one example, an investor with 10% can win up to C$26,000 for spending as little as C$97.50 (if I win first place with only one bullet).

I accept payment via Paypal, EMT, or partypoker transfer. Deadline is on Tuesday night, November 11, as I plan to play my first bullet on November 12, 13:00 UK time.


Details (TLDR):

This event needs 2,222 entries to avoid an overlay. It has the most qualifiers that I have heard of, including >= 244 players that qualified through the local club, along with online qualifiers. As mikelbyl likes to point out, the more qualifiers, the better for winning players. Local celebrities will be playing, such as Nottingham boxer Carl Froch.

I have over $100,000 in live tournament winnings, including #1 by far at Casino Rama since my live return. I also have six figures in PROFIT in the much tougher games online.

If there is wifi, I will post a live update every break in a Facebook group, including a photo of the tournament screen and my tournament receipts, just like during WPT Philippines. For pokerJAH and those who don't just want poker, poker & more poker, I will try to do a trip photo blog, including the Euro Style Royal Flush Girls, partypoker models, DTD models, Player Party with DJ Spoony, Nottingham Forest, etc.

I expect to receive more poker swag at this partypoker-sponsored event than DirtArse and I did at WPT Philippines. The name of the poker club is "Dusk Till Dawn" which is the same as the movie with Selma Hayek and George Clooney. It is claimed to be the best card room in Europe, and seems to sell a lot of branded poker merchandise, including DTD playing cards. Investors have the option of receiving free swag from WPT UK, Dusk Till Dawn, and/or WPT Philippines.

===============================================


Reserve List:

5% - DirtArse (owe $150; requests WPT UK XL black shirt)
3% - PIRANHA (paid; gave XL WPT UK hoodie, wants WPT Philippines patch)
1% - UBetIFold (paid; cash chip reserved)
1% - lynx5 (paid; requests WPT Philippines white & WPT UK XL dark grey shirts, cash chip)
0.5% - Colin408 (paid; gave WPT UK hat, Dusk Till Dawn & Harrah's WSOP Poker Room chips)
0.5% - Beefylogs (owe $21; cash chip reserved)
0.5% - Hobbes (paid).
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Comments

  • I'm in for atleast %0.5 will confirm later on this thread, and ship on party. might have too email me or PM me on here your party details again so I can keep them on file for this time and upcoming events. unless I can scroll up that far on our Facebook message history and find it.

    GL , ship it!


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  • 0.5 pct sweat equity
  • Ill take some sweat equity but have no way to transfer online ill pay cash when I see you in Branford on the 30th with DirtArse but if that's not acceptable then ill pass till the next time you play something. Btw good luck buddy! :)
  • Also if its not to much to ask can you pick me up a 1£ cash chip ill trade you a tooney for it :)
  • Beefylogs, when will you be at Playground to play the WPT Montreal satellites? I put you down for the $21 sweat equity.
    Beefylogs wrote: »
    Ill take some sweat equity but have no way to transfer online ill pay cash when I see you in Branford on the 30th with DirtArse ...
    Beefylogs wrote: »
    Also if its not to much to ask can you pick me up a 1£ cash chip ...
    Sure, I'll get you and Milo a "Dusk Till Dawn" cash chip for free.
  • BlondeFish wrote: »
    Beefylogs, when will you be at Playground to play the WPT Montreal satellites? I put you down for the $21 sweat equity.

    Sure, I'll get you and Milo a "Dusk Till Dawn" cash chip for free.

    I'm going to be there on the 13th at 8pm I'm going to show up an hour or so early and have dinner at the rail and mentally prepare for battle. Are you playing any of the satellites? Thank you kindly for the chip :)
  • %1 - shipped.

    GL TO US.
  • From the information I have been given, there was an overlay in the first event already! The casino wanted at least 2,222 entries to earn its 10% rake and meet the £250,000 guarantee for the £125 WPT Warmup, but it only got 1,811 entries. This basicaly means that there is a lot of extra money added to the pot, and the average EV of each entry went up by +23%!

    The buy-in for my WPT500 Event #2 is four times as much, so it's possible the overlay may be even bigger. This means that the £1,000,000 guaranteed pool will be easier to win with a low fewer entries, and the value of each entry can go up by 23% or more.
    Beefylogs wrote: »
    Are you playing any of the satellites? Thank you kindly for the chip :)
    You're welcome. The final table for WPT500 UK won't be until November 16. Since I know the November 19 GBH tournament will sell out as usual, I have already bought an entry. As soon as I'm done with that tournament, I plan to drive straight to Playground and grind the WPT Montreal satellites.
  • BlondeFish wrote: »
    You're welcome. The final table for WPT500 UK won't be until November 16. Since I know the November 19 GBH tournament will sell out as usual, I have already bought an entry. As soon as I'm done with that tournament, I plan to drive straight to Playground and grind the WPT Montreal satellites.

    Well good luck in London Buddy looking forward to the updates :)
  • A poker executive put an over/under for the number of entries, and after doing the analysis, I am willing to bet a lot of money for the under. Just like I correctly predicted an overlay for the PokerStars Canada Cup, I am now predicting an overlay for the WPT500 UK with £1,000,000 guarantee. To get to the 2,222-entry target, an average of 317 entries are needed each day.

    1A, Sunday: only 199 entries
    1B: only 102 as of Level 8 (there were already 159 as of Level 6 in 1A)

    With an overlay, it means that it is worth it to fire more than one bullet. My goal is to have over 130,000 chips for Day 2.

    I'll try to get into the Live Updates. Here is the link for the official photos.
  • There were only 116 players each in Day 1B and 1C, so it could be a huge overlay like what happened at the $10 million Seminole Hard Rock Open. I will start on Day 1D tomorrow. Even in the worst case scenario where I am unlucky and don't make it to Day 2 after four bullets, it would actually be highly +EV to re-enter.

    I'll be looking for a plug adapter so I will be able to recharge my iPad and continue posting updates on Facebook, etc.


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  • Knock em dead buddy :)
  • Got lots of sleep and an adapter for updates. Going into strategy stealth mode now. If any of the investors did not get my first strategy post in the Facebook BAP group, PM or email me. I will try to make $EV-maximizing adjustments throughout each of the four days in my favourite format where I can rebuy four times (or more) if necessary. Let the Battle of Britain begin!


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  • Ubetifold, per you PM, you are now reserved for 1%. Please PM or email me if you can access the Facebook BAP album and messages yet, and which WPT UK swag you prefer.


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  • I'll take the hat :) I can pick it up at the next GBH tournament.
  • DirtArse is in for 5% of the probable huge overlay. Only 674 entries, more than halfway into the guaranteed event! :o DirtArse, take a look at the Facebook album photos and let me know if you prefer the WPT UK hoodie or shirt (XL).



    I will play the cash game with 5% rake at some point, and get a Dusk Till Dawn chip for beefylogs, UBetIFold and Milo.
  • After I made Day 2, I got the cash game chips for beefylogs, UBetIFold & Milo. It's a unique design that I haven't seen before, so I'll try to post a photo. I'm taking Friday, Day 1F off from tourneys, maybe playing cash games.


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  • So what's the deal if you make day 2 more than once? They pay you for your shorter stacks? A set amount or does it vary with stack size? I guess you can gamble a bit more with those extra day 1s now if you don't sell them?
  • Unlike the Matt Savage-designed format of the inaugural WPT500 where you
    can cash for all six Day 1s, this UK version will only take your "best stack
    forward" into Day 2 and all your shorter stacks will be worthless.

    The huge advantage of this event is my predicted overlay. I would have been
    willing to keep re-entering as long as there is an overlay. The disadvantage of
    having a BAP is that it gets too complicated if you have made a Day 2 but want
    to keep re-entering with the overlay to get a much bigger stack than what your
    investors have a stake in.

    I will play my final bullet on the final Turbo Day 1G.
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    So what's the deal if you make day 2 more than once? They pay you for your shorter stacks? A set amount or does it vary with stack size? I guess you can gamble a bit more with those extra day 1s now if you don't sell them?


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  • that sounds like a 77% rake to me. must be one hell of an overlay to be beatable!



    gl
  • No, say pkrfce9 is +EV to play in a re-entry tournament. If your Aces get bingo-ed, you are still +EV to play again. If there is an overlay, your EV goes even higher.
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    that sounds like a 77% rake to me. must be one hell of an overlay to be beatable!
    gl





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  • Show me the math!
  • Cash game chip on FB looks great!
  • BlondeFish wrote: »
    No, say pkrfce9 is +EV to play in a re-entry tournament. If your Aces get bingo-ed, you are still +EV to play again. If there is an overlay, your EV goes even higher.


    If you're in day 2 already, playing extra bullets with no value other than getting a bigger stack seems terrible. You're essentially killing the overlay yourself.

    I assume you have a very small stack moving forward?
  • I would be curious to see that math as well. If you have already made day 2 I would think that re-entering to try for a larger stack wouldn't be worth it unless you were super short.

    Assuming you made Day 2 with an average stack, your chance of winning is x.

    For an extra U$850 you have P chance of increasing your chance of winning to y

    X = your stack / chips in play x your edge
    Y = your new stack / chips in play x your edge
    P = the chance of acheiving Y

    For simplicity, lets say that your new stack is double the average, so Y = X * 2

    So U$850 gets you equity X

    And U$1700 gets you equity (Y * P) + X (1 - P)

    Therefore, to be +EV, P must be greater than ____. (TBD!)

    I'm on my phone and this excludes a lot of things, such as the overlay... But I think the chance of getting a double stack needs to be pretty high for it to work and I just dont see that happening often enough.

    Theres also a good chance that I'm missing something or that my math is off. Thought I would throw it up here anyway as at least a starting point!
  • You missed that he'd fire a third bullet, too.

    I can see if you won the entries and can't transfer them you don't have much choice but this is not much solace to bap investors, is it?
  • With just one flight to go in tomorrow's Day 1G Turbo flight, surely we'll see the £1million guarantee smashed!!

    = no overlay
  • If someone had posted this kind of stuff 7 or 8 years ago.He would have been called a genius or sort of a nerd.Am I wrong?it makes no sense to me.i am one of the ancient ones.^-^
  • Looks like 20-30% of the field make it thru to day 2. So average stack will be 100-150k. Buddy had 100k from his first successful qualification. So he might be slightly below average but he's also going to be in a field of around 4-600 for day 2.

    How much is a min cash?

    Quick math says he's used about 3k worth of entries for about 3k worth of ev. If he can get in there with a double stack then I guess it is worth the extra entries but that is a pretty big IF.

    That plus he's GIVING ev to those who got to day 2 on 3 or less bullets. Just seems un-Buddy.
  • Thanks for the poker posts. I was talking to a pro at the empty Player Lounge (the other partypoker qualifiers had not made Day 2 & were playing 1F) whom I had met at previous WPT events and discussing our options with our remaining entry. Now I remember why I much prefer the Accumulator format to the "best stack forward" format, which Allen Kessler hates and has been lobbying to get rid of. I have sent a message if I can get a refund of my final bullet.

    Now I'm going shopping for One Direction merchandise, so my daughter will let me back into Canada!
    Bfillmaff wrote: »
    I would be curious to see that math as well. If you have already made day 2 I would think that re-entering to try for a larger stack wouldn't be worth it unless you were super short.

    Assuming you made Day 2 with an average stack, your chance of winning is x.

    For an extra U$850 you have P chance of increasing your chance of winning to y

    X = your stack / chips in play x your edge
    Y = your new stack / chips in play x your edge
    P = the chance of acheiving Y

    For simplicity, lets say that your new stack is double the average, so Y = X * 2

    So U$850 gets you equity X

    And U$1700 gets you equity (Y * P) + X (1 - P)

    Therefore, to be +EV, P must be greater than ____. (TBD!)

    I'm on my phone and this excludes a lot of things, such as the overlay... But I think the chance of getting a double stack needs to be pretty high for it to work and I just dont see that happening often enough.

    Theres also a good chance that I'm missing something or that my math is off. Thought I would throw it up here anyway as at least a starting point!





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