Playing Super draws, hand analysis and thoughts please!

Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

Hand 1

$0.50/$1.00 cash game

open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

button has 10cJc.

Pot is $95

Hijack has $75 behind

Button has $250 behind

What do you do in this position if your the button and why?


Hand 2

MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

Pot $925

Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

pot $2,725.

Turn comes Jd

BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

pot is $5721.

BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

What do you do in this position and why?



Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.

Comments

  • trigstrigs Flop smasher
    i'll provide my very amateur opinion.
    Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    button has 10cJc.

    Pot is $95

    Hijack has $75 behind

    Button has $250 behind

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?

    first, i'm curious about the preflop button raise. is this standard? this is not your concern here, but i was just curious.

    on the flop, what kind of hand is HJ check/raising with? AA and QQ are probably reraising preflop i'd imagine so i'd omit those. 88 improved to trips is possible for a check/raise (although i personally would think leading out with them is a better play).

    maybe an Acxc holding top pair and nut flush may check/raise. AcKc is a possibility and may look like a good check/raising hand for villain. AQ two pair check/raise maybe as well. i don't see HJ doing this with the Kc 2nd nut flush draw and no straight draw (as you are holding blockers for that hand).

    AcKc were far behind. 88 is about 60%-40%. AQ is pretty much a flip. pretty sure i'm putting HJ all in here.

    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?

    first, what's with the limit play on the flop? $200 into $900 pot, then min raised to $400, then $600? that's some crazy playing there (unless this is actually limit holdem but i'm assuming not due to the BB's turn bet).

    seems like UTG+1 is just desperately chasing a flush draw for his tournament life so i'm not too worried about him.

    as far as BB's line goes, i really don't know what he could have. 2 pair is possible. i don't see him making this line with a weak flush draw but it's possible. just calling the 3bet flop and then leading the Jd turn is strange to me. T9 chasing the gut shot and getting there or maybe Th9h would make more sense i guess. still a strange line.

    idk, i think i'll leave this one to others.
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    I won't comment on Hand 1 (since I was in it!) - but for hand 2 I am shipping it in on the turn.

    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?

    The weird flop play doesn't scream anything overly strong, so we have fold equity, the squeeze working for us, and then 17 outs if we do happen to get a call. Effective stack is 9.7k with 5.7k in the pot... close enough, shove it.

    Taking a look at the ranges you are ahead... not sure if this is 100% but should be close?

    After the weird turn action, we can narrow down both ranges quite a bit.

    UTG+1 looks like this after the turn:
    k1rqlw.png

    and the BB has a bunch more suited cards (in hearts) given the free look preflop and the action on the flop:
    29fqepu.png

    which looks like this:
    aviukh.png


    now if we shove on the turn, one of them could call with these 124 hands
    20p3nk8.png

    out of the 400+ (average) in the turn ranges. So we are getting a fold 2 out of 3 times, and 1 out of 3 times we are getting it in with 34% equity:
    206n0qb.png

    Given that there are two players in the pot, double the chance of a player calling, for a total of a 50% shot at a fold/call.

    So 50% of the time we get two folds and take down $5721

    and 50% of the time we get it in for 6k (average of the 2 eff stacks) as a 34% to win.

    so 34% of the time that we get it in, we win 11721, and 66% of the time we lose 6000.

    There is also the scenario that both call, in which case you actually gain equity, but to keep it simple I won't include it.

    Add it all up: (5721 * .5) + ((11721 * .34) + (-6000 * .66) *.5)

    = 2860 + ( (3985 + -3960) * .5)

    = 2860 + 12.5

    EV = +2872.5

    verdict, SHIP IT!! Thoughts?
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far, but ill give it some more time. Yes Bfillmaff, you certainly could stay quiet on hand 1, but wouldnt it be fun to see your thoughts on that situation too, just dont disclose in what position you were in, just maybe look at the hand objectively?
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    Also thank you for going soo in depth on the 2nd hand. Since most decisions are based on a shorter time scale than to sit down, go through all the options on the fly, do the math and make a decision, how about just thoughts based on feelings and simple math opposed to counting out all pure possibilities just for numbers sake, although that is good to see and know. Does that make sense?

    Like if your in a live game, and unless your rainman, or someone way better at math than myself, those numbers would be nowhere in site at that moment.

    So maybe some questions based on player feel, or table dynamics or anything etc. Just curious what else people can offer, suggest that I can learn from and evaluate.
  • trigstrigs Flop smasher
    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far

    strat talk on this forum is dying :( sucks because some of us need all the help we can get.

    i know some choose to remain quiet because they don't feel that they are "good enough" to comment (myself included), but since literally no one is commenting lately i've been trying to give my input.

    it'd be greatly appreciated if some of the better players could find some time to help us out. i remember a time when strat threads would run pages long with multiple suggestions and dialogue *sigh*

    personally, i haven't been playing a ton lately, but i'm starting to pick it up with the summer coming. there's a good chance i'll be posting questions in here more soon. hopefully it'll gain some momentum.

    EDIT: i blame those who complain about this forum and the lack of poker talk, and use that as an excuse to not comment in actual poker content threads. seems to me they're just shooting themselves in the foot, but what do i know.
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    I agree trigs, my time on here certainly comes and goes in waves, as life does have its moments outside of the forum that prevent me from checking on here everyday. But there is a lot more talk about general off topic stuff your right than actual game theory etc. Maybe everyone just thinks theres no point speaking up when there are literally hundreds if not thousands of books, websites, training tools etc.

    To me those are all good and swell, and most are geared towards A.) online play and B.) after game analysis since nobody has 10 mins every hand to be punching things into programs, doing all the exact math. I play by feel and basic math understand of the game.

    my .02
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    the idea is you do the math now so that next time something similar happens at the table, you can intuit something close to the 'correct' play
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    p.s. and this forum blows :)
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    cant blow that bad, you got 5 entries into some satties that may or may not run and a snickers bar out of it lol....... cant blow that bad
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    Also, though you are very right about remembering the math on those for next time, but to me that is as simple as figuring out what hand you think your up against, counting your outs, doing some basic math, than thinking about the 100+ hand ranges, effective stacks, +- EV based on certain hands and if more ppl call etc.
  • trigstrigs Flop smasher
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    p.s. and this forum blows :)

    at least it's free. usually you have to pay for that kind of thing.
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    To be honest, I thought there would be more responses on this so far, but ill give it some more time. Yes Bfillmaff, you certainly could stay quiet on hand 1, but wouldnt it be fun to see your thoughts on that situation too, just dont disclose in what position you were in, just maybe look at the hand objectively?

    OK, can't resist:

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Button range once he raises against 2 "limps", (we'll assume that we don't know he holds JcTc)

    2cqjhgx.png

    HJ and cutoff ranges after flatting the pf 3bet are similar to each other:

    24e57ns.png
    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c
    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Button is betting his whole range here, it's a good board to c-bet and 2 players checked, so we gain no information from this bet.
    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    We get check-raised so we know that Hijack has hit this flop, either with a hand, a draw, or both. We can take a few hands out of his range, which now looks like this:

    izxhnb.png
    button has 10cJc.
    Pot is $95
    Hijack has $75 behind
    Button has $250 behind

    Range vs range, Button is a slight underdog at 45/55.
    With JcTc specifically, Button is a 51% favorite against HJ's range:

    10s85ed.png

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?

    Seems like a perfect spot to shove. Out of the 141 hands in HJ's range, he can call a shove with 48 of them, so we're getting a fold 2/3 of the time and taking the pot down with Jack high. The other 1/3 of the time we are getting it in and are in pretty good shape with 40% equity:

    HJ's calling range and our equity against it:
    2jfv4j.png
    esvvqf.png


    Our equity is going down big time once a turn card comes out, and pushing our 1% edge we can safely get it in now and really not mind either a fold or a call. By shoving it now we also avoid the inevitable $75 bet from the HJ on the turn card.

    Adding up the numbers for shoving the flop:

    2/3 of the time we get a fold and win $95
    40% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and win $170
    60% of 1/3 of the time we get a call and lose $105


    Or: (95 * .66) + ((170 * .4) + (-105 * .6) * .33)
    Or: 62.7 + 1.65

    For a total EV of +$64.35 if we shove on the flop. Get it in!
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    Also thank you for going soo in depth on the 2nd hand. Since most decisions are based on a shorter time scale than to sit down, go through all the options on the fly, do the math and make a decision, how about just thoughts based on feelings and simple math opposed to counting out all pure possibilities just for numbers sake, although that is good to see and know. Does that make sense?

    Like if your in a live game, and unless your rainman, or someone way better at math than myself, those numbers would be nowhere in site at that moment.

    So maybe some questions based on player feel, or table dynamics or anything etc. Just curious what else people can offer, suggest that I can learn from and evaluate.


    I love breaking hands down like this after the fact. Sure, you can't necessarily do this level of thinking on the fly, but it can validate your "feel", expose other options, and most importantly develops shortcuts that CAN be used on the fly. I think there is much much more to it than counting outs and figuring out what you are up against. IMO working out and watching the hand ranges narrow down from pre-flop to river is a great way to visualize what they actually look like in game. I know my range evaluation in game has gotten better each time I break one of these hands down at home... and if nothing else it at least gets discussion going!
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    very fair, would u be willing to work with me on these software programs to help me out, I have downloaded pt4 etc etc etc and i am just no good with that sorta stuff. maybe bring your laptop, or i can download again and come by monday a little earlier and sit down with me? or online over skype or something also and maybe do a session? what do you think? ive always wanted to do a skype poker session with someone and just bounce thoughts back and forth. low limits training stuff of course.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    hand 1: i saw the hand. your re-raise pf was insufficient. should have been 13-14. so close enough i guess.

    knowing his hand, he called almost 10% of his stack with that garbage, OOP? shame on you andrew! but i suppose he KNEW he could outplay 2 players OOP, right?

    on the flop, your hand is strong. you have 1 out to the straight flush, 6 outs to the nut straight and 8 outs to a flush but this could easily be second best.

    I would assume he is bluffing 10% of the time. Having a 3rd player still to act even though he checked the first time around could indicate a smaller likelihood of a bluff here. Given the bet sizing, he is never folding with a made hand or strong draw (K high flush or similar straight draw). I would not put him on AA, KK, QQ or AK. Maybe AQ, A8s, Acxc, Kc9c, JT, KJ, AJ or 88?

    I don't think calling is ever a good move here. So push or fold. Go ahead and stove that. My guess is you have 30-40% equity. My intuition tells me it is a fold but it could be close. fold > push >> call.
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    for sure, no problem at all. I can't call myself any good at them either, but I love playing around with it. The images above come from EquiLab - it's free, PM your e-mail and I'll send it over. PT4 is also very slick, if you have some hand histories built up I can show you how to navigate them and some of the reports etc. If you haven't set up your HUD yet we should do that too. The disclaimer though is that I totally suck at online poker. I have busted my stars account 5 times this year and am going to be sticking to live... so take it more as poker discussion than actual training!!
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    I am okay with that! I will pm you email.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    Also, though you are very right about remembering the math on those for next time, but to me that is as simple as figuring out what hand you think your up against, counting your outs, doing some basic math, than thinking about the 100+ hand ranges, effective stacks, +- EV based on certain hands and if more ppl call etc.

    well, there are some tricks to this that the 'pros' on here won't share with you. (are there any left?)

    i've looked into it but haven't put in enough effort to really master it. if i get more serious about playing cash games i'm sure it will be very useful stuff. if you and andrew are serious about it, i'd like to join your study group and get deeper into this.
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    I dont know about Andrew, but I will hardly call it a study group, I would call it someone more proficient on software helping and complete helpless wanderer find his way. But I would certainly be open to a skype "study session" or live or wtv to help improve sngs, mtt and cash. For now I am strictly NLHE but down the road am willing to branch and learn more. I just feel like theres a lot to learn about this game before throwing other games in the mix. Andrew, study group?
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    To the unenviable Mr fillmaff, I think your ranges are off. The button's raising range can be wider but the hj calling range SHOULD be tighter. It wasn't so my read is off...

    If I have the time and inclination I'll take a stab later.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    pkrfce9 wrote: »
    To the unenviable Mr fillmaff, I think your ranges are off. The button's raising range can be wider but the hj calling range SHOULD be tighter. It wasn't so my read is off...

    Yeah you are probably right given the stack sizes. That will change the numbers a bit, I'll run it again tomorrow but I still think shove > fold.

    Here is the range in question, we can definitely take out 55/44/33/22, 87s / 67s, ATo, and A9s to A6s:

    24e57ns.png
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9 SHIP IT, BITCHES!
    I think you can take aa-jj and some of the stronger aces out of the 3b calling range. These would most likely be 4b especially with another person still in the hand and hj being oop.

    tapatalk puts this here to annoy YOU
  • MsBlueMsBlue Chocolate Timbit
    If a skype group ever gets going, I'd love to join in!
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y Full PFC Member
    I would be interested in an MTT skype group too :) i suck at cash games :p
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    yep never used skype but I'm sure I can figure it out. In!
  • Irunit4timesIrunit4times Full PFC Member
    see new thread about mtt study group so we can leave this for real analysis and chatter.
  • sn1perb0ysn1perb0y Full PFC Member
    Okay so I have two hands I am looking to hear thoughts on please.

    Hand 1

    $0.50/$1.00 cash game

    open to $3 from the hijack, called from the cutoff. Button re-raises to $11.
    Hijack and cutoff call. pot $34.50

    Flops comes Ah Qc 8c

    hijack and cutoff both check, button bets out $15

    Hijack re-raises to $45 cutoff folds.

    button has 10cJc.

    Pot is $95

    Hijack has $75 behind

    Button has $250 behind

    What do you do in this position if your the button and why?


    Hand 2

    MTT blinds are 100/200 ante 25

    Utg +1 limps in, folded around to the button. Button calls, SB folds and BB checks.

    Pot $925

    Flops comes Qd 8h 3h

    BB leads for $200 utg +1 calls Button raises to $400, BB raises to $600 UTG+1 calls and Button calls.

    pot $2,725.

    Turn comes Jd

    BB leads out for $1498 UTG+1 calls

    pot is $5721.

    BB has $9704 behind and UTG+1 has $1593.

    Button has Kh10h with $15,365 behind.

    What do you do in this position and why?



    Any and all answers are appreciated. I wont say in what position I am in, just want to see decision making on here in these spots, then I will reveal and my thoughts.

    For hand 1,

    If i was button i'm jamming in this spot, although HJ would get 2.6/1 and would be getting the odds to call a ton of times, we are ahead a lot of the times and we do want him to call.

    If we give HJ the tightest range which would be 88,A8s,A8o,Q8s,Q8o,TJo,TJs
    we are ahead 53% of the time.



    Hand 2,

    Is this NL Holdem or Limit holdem? the raise sizes are very weird pot is 925 then bb leads to 200 then a raise to 400??:confused2:

    On the turn after the maniac action going on I will check behind if it was checked to me, also i'd rather get the straight than the flush since someone could have a flush combo with Ah. The sizing to 400 on the button doesn't change anything i'd rather just call or raise bigger because raising to 400 is useless.

    I'm not sure but i think utg +1 is super strong, like QJhh or 33s but idk why would he limp.

    I would see what is the action on the turn and try to get to the river as cheaply as possible then value you town on the river if i hit. If there was a lot of action on the turn i'd look at my odds then decide but after all the action on the flop i'm not loving my hand as well as its only a draw.
  • hiphopopotamushiphopopotamus Full PFC Member
    Hand 1: I don't think there's very much fold equity but, with 15 outs twice, I'm just getting it in and praying I’m not up against Ax of clubs. Only need to win ~40% of the time to break even and, if you have any sort of fold equity, even less than that.

    Hand 2: Flop play by everyone is weird but whatever. I'd just flat the turn with position and bomb river for value if you hit.

    On a side note, I'd put the stack sizes and hero's hand at the start of the hand history. Especially without stack sizes, you're kind of forced to read the hand twice.
  • hiphopopotamushiphopopotamus Full PFC Member
    Bfillmaff wrote: »
    Given that there are two players in the pot, double the chance of a player calling, for a total of a 50% shot at a fold/call.

    So 50% of the time we get two folds and take down $5721

    and 50% of the time we get it in for 6k (average of the 2 eff stacks) as a 34% to win.

    so 34% of the time that we get it in, we win 11721, and 66% of the time we lose 6000.

    There is also the scenario that both call, in which case you actually gain equity, but to keep it simple I won't include it.

    Add it all up: (5721 * .5) + ((11721 * .34) + (-6000 * .66) *.5)

    = 2860 + ( (3985 + -3960) * .5)

    = 2860 + 12.5

    EV = +2872.5

    verdict, SHIP IT!! Thoughts?

    There is absolutely no scenario where you are winning this pot with a shove uncontested. UTG+1 calls off 1500 and you think he folds his remaining 1600 getting something like 5.5:1?

    Shoving is probably +EV but so is the much lower variance option of flatting. This early in the tournament, the disadvantage of having 20bb (shoving and losing) compared to 70bb (flatting and losing) is much greater than any impact winning this pot will have. Easy flat especially in position, imo. Out of position, it's a bit closer but I'd probably still flat if the pot size and bet were the same.
  • BfillmaffBfillmaff High Roller.
    ^ also good points. this is why I do this... looking forward to working through this again!
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