- Deep Analysis Required -
Scenario for the Poker - Math wizards:
House game, no rake.
Main event: 7pm start time. $40 CDN dollar buy-in. Freezeout. Top three pay ( 50% / 30% / 20 % ).
( I could care less about the money - from my perspective, I'm playing in my first "real money" cash game, I'm playing for experience and I'm paying for a 40 dollar poker lesson ).
[ I'm lucky to have played in a 5$ preliminary let's-play-while-waiting-for-the-main-event (6pm-7pm). ]
So I already have a read on all but four of the players ( the new arrivals basically ).
9 Live players ( including myself )
1,000 in chips.
Blinds starting at Low: 20, High: 40. Doubling every ( 20 minutes - give or take a few minutes lol).
After about nearly one circuit of the table ( 8 hands ? ), I end up on on Big Blind, I pay my obligatory 40 in chips and pull 9, 8 ( unsuited ).
Everyone pays their big blind. Options to me: I check ( thinking what a crappy hand that I have to pay for ).
The flop comes down:
rainbow: 10, Jack, Queen
hmmm... flopped a low straight on a hand that I was obligated to pay / play - very amusing.
The dealer 3 seats-ish to the right of me checks, nobody touches the possible straight, I throw in a couple of feeler chips: 50.
Fold, fold, fold, fold etc. until it gets to Mr. T.H.M sitting across from me who throws in 50 + a raise of 300 ( who is this guy? ). The three people to the left of Mr. T.H.M fold with a speed that reminds me of people abandoning the Titanic.
1) What should I do?
My gut read is that he is buying blinds with a hand lesser than a straight.
I laugh and throw in 300 right off the bat, calling him.
The turn card comes down:
Jack
( the flop is pure rainbow so flushes fly out the window ).
! potential full house ! immediately flys into my mind.
2) What should I do?
For some reason, I lost track of the dealer and after 30 seconds of thinking about the hand, started asking this non-player girl about the Tenassee Willams book that she's reading. The dealer laughs. Mr. T.H.M. sitting opposite me, stares at me and says to the dealer, "it's his call...". I say, " oh sorry...." and stop reading the cover of the book.
I check.
He says "All-In".
I start thinking very deeply about the hand:
10, Jack, Queen, Jack, rainbow
I start thinking, "maybe I'm wrong, maybe he does have Ace King high straight".
I start replaying the play in my head. A blur of math flies through my head.
I look at him - he looks at me, he suddenly has: faint blush, slightly tense, cramped up posture.
He has a Full House, I think.
3) What should I do?
I figure, I have half of my stack in the pot. I seem pot-committed. I think about whether it is more prudent to fold in the face of a full house and become a half-stacked, short-stack with blinds going up to 40 / 80. How will the end-game play out?
I ask him how many chips he has. He gives a rough count. I start counting my chips, I give him an accurate count - pretty simple ( mine is in a chip rack ). I ask him again how many chips he has, his count looks slightly off and it is by 40 ish after the dealer's recount. Another player jokes with me that I will have a big blind's worth after the hand. I'm joking around with him. I turn to Mr. T.H.M and say so I have 25 extra. He looks a little worried for the first time. I push my chip rack into the centre.
The crowd cheers.
A King comes down.
4) What the hell am I doing? I have no clue, it's off the map.
I check, he checks.
I lay down my 8, 9 King-High straight.
He lays down Jack , Queen making jacks full of queens.
Fill the blanks for 1) through 4).
My retrospective is that instead of calling the initial 300, I should have re-raised all-in but that seems like an incredible stretch of the imagination.
If I had all-ined prior to the turn card what was the probability of him getting a full house on the turn / river. Compare that to my low-straight.
I'm guessing that my odds of winning dropped when the second Jack appeared but it was impossible to read the guy with the non-fluctuating bets ( ie. he either had nothing, or he had everything when the turn card came down ). After the Jack came down, I think that the only thing that worried him would be overcards on the river.
House game, no rake.
Main event: 7pm start time. $40 CDN dollar buy-in. Freezeout. Top three pay ( 50% / 30% / 20 % ).
( I could care less about the money - from my perspective, I'm playing in my first "real money" cash game, I'm playing for experience and I'm paying for a 40 dollar poker lesson ).
[ I'm lucky to have played in a 5$ preliminary let's-play-while-waiting-for-the-main-event (6pm-7pm). ]
So I already have a read on all but four of the players ( the new arrivals basically ).
9 Live players ( including myself )
1,000 in chips.
Blinds starting at Low: 20, High: 40. Doubling every ( 20 minutes - give or take a few minutes lol).
After about nearly one circuit of the table ( 8 hands ? ), I end up on on Big Blind, I pay my obligatory 40 in chips and pull 9, 8 ( unsuited ).
Everyone pays their big blind. Options to me: I check ( thinking what a crappy hand that I have to pay for ).
The flop comes down:
rainbow: 10, Jack, Queen
hmmm... flopped a low straight on a hand that I was obligated to pay / play - very amusing.
The dealer 3 seats-ish to the right of me checks, nobody touches the possible straight, I throw in a couple of feeler chips: 50.
Fold, fold, fold, fold etc. until it gets to Mr. T.H.M sitting across from me who throws in 50 + a raise of 300 ( who is this guy? ). The three people to the left of Mr. T.H.M fold with a speed that reminds me of people abandoning the Titanic.
1) What should I do?
My gut read is that he is buying blinds with a hand lesser than a straight.
I laugh and throw in 300 right off the bat, calling him.
The turn card comes down:
Jack
( the flop is pure rainbow so flushes fly out the window ).
! potential full house ! immediately flys into my mind.
2) What should I do?
For some reason, I lost track of the dealer and after 30 seconds of thinking about the hand, started asking this non-player girl about the Tenassee Willams book that she's reading. The dealer laughs. Mr. T.H.M. sitting opposite me, stares at me and says to the dealer, "it's his call...". I say, " oh sorry...." and stop reading the cover of the book.
I check.
He says "All-In".
I start thinking very deeply about the hand:
10, Jack, Queen, Jack, rainbow
I start thinking, "maybe I'm wrong, maybe he does have Ace King high straight".
I start replaying the play in my head. A blur of math flies through my head.
I look at him - he looks at me, he suddenly has: faint blush, slightly tense, cramped up posture.
He has a Full House, I think.
3) What should I do?
I figure, I have half of my stack in the pot. I seem pot-committed. I think about whether it is more prudent to fold in the face of a full house and become a half-stacked, short-stack with blinds going up to 40 / 80. How will the end-game play out?
I ask him how many chips he has. He gives a rough count. I start counting my chips, I give him an accurate count - pretty simple ( mine is in a chip rack ). I ask him again how many chips he has, his count looks slightly off and it is by 40 ish after the dealer's recount. Another player jokes with me that I will have a big blind's worth after the hand. I'm joking around with him. I turn to Mr. T.H.M and say so I have 25 extra. He looks a little worried for the first time. I push my chip rack into the centre.
The crowd cheers.
A King comes down.
4) What the hell am I doing? I have no clue, it's off the map.
I check, he checks.
I lay down my 8, 9 King-High straight.
He lays down Jack , Queen making jacks full of queens.
Fill the blanks for 1) through 4).
My retrospective is that instead of calling the initial 300, I should have re-raised all-in but that seems like an incredible stretch of the imagination.
If I had all-ined prior to the turn card what was the probability of him getting a full house on the turn / river. Compare that to my low-straight.
I'm guessing that my odds of winning dropped when the second Jack appeared but it was impossible to read the guy with the non-fluctuating bets ( ie. he either had nothing, or he had everything when the turn card came down ). After the Jack came down, I think that the only thing that worried him would be overcards on the river.
Comments
What i'm amazed at is that he went all-in on the turn, he really should have milked that hand, since he almost got you off your hand with his large all-in.
I think once the second J appeared he was really not worried about anything at all. While he didn't have the absolute nuts, based on how this hand played out he had to know he was best by a huge margin