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Call?

UnknownUnknown
in Analyze My Hand
UTG+1 is a winning reg so a reasonable shoving range. Blinds prob still have 2mins


Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 50 Ante, 9 Players

MP2: 8,128
JodaB. (CO): 2,685
BTN: 6,395
SB: 3,997
BB: 4,028
UTG: 14,162
UTG+1: 4,900
UTG+2: 8,695
MP1: 30,668

Pre-Flop: (1,350) Qclubnormal.gif Jdiamondnormal.gif dealt to JodaB. (CO)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 4,850 and is All-In, 3 folds, JodaB. calls 2,635 and is All-In???

Comments

  • UnknownUnknown
    whats his range?
  • HobbesHobbes
    With 4BB as much as I prefer to be the shover, I call.
  • HobbesHobbes
    btw

    How'd you end up so sort?
  • UnknownUnknown
    Hobbes wrote: »
    btw

    How'd you end up so sort?
    i lost my chips in a fierce battle of cards vs cards! :-\
  • CerberusCerberus
    I would think crying call. Probably 57/43 vs some Ace rag. Not really going to get much better than that without some serious luck. Also, you have two other short stacks in the blinds who will come along with any weak A or pp, in which case you can quadrouple up should you hit rather than just double up.

    Results?
  • DataMnDataMn
    I know it is not the end all and be all, but SNG Wizard says it is not even close. They would have to be shoving with over 45% of their range to make it profitable.
  • HobbesHobbes
    I need to reinstall SNG wizard on my new puter, but even cEV?
  • DataMnDataMn
    If they are pushing with 20% of their hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then it is slightly +cEV to shove.

    Assumptions made:
    -Button will also call with top 3.8% of hands (TT+,AQs+,AKo)
    -SB will also call with top 5.4% of hands (99,AJs+,AQo+)
    -BB will also call with top 6.7% of hands (88,ATs+,AQo+)
    -If one of the earlier positions call, the later ones would only overcall with QQ+,AKs



    The question is whether UTG+1 was shoving 20% of their hands when they had to go through the big stacks (UTG+2, MP1, MP2) to their left. I think a lot of players would be a bit tighter than that range in that position - or would wait until they are in a later position so that they have less people to go through.
  • Richard~Richard~
    I would fold, we still have som fold equity vs bad players
  • UnknownUnknown
    costanza wrote: »
    whats his range?
    you're somewhat restating the question ^-^
  • UnknownUnknown
    Hobbes wrote: »
    btw

    How'd you end up so sort?
    Sort of what?

    This question suggests that your 10bbs w/antes button shove range is 100%+

    I think you're saying here that I might have folded too much to get here. But my 4-5bbs shove range can be very near atc from any position. Pretty sure I'm the loosest shover here (or at least close to):p


    But also will point out that I'm considering making a marginal or even -ev call here that most players would not even consider...
  • UnknownUnknown
    DataMn wrote: »
    If they are pushing with 20% of their hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then it is slightly +cEV to shove.

    Assumptions made:
    -Button will also call with top 3.8% of hands (TT+,AQs+,AKo)
    -SB will also call with top 5.4% of hands (99,AJs+,AQo+)
    -BB will also call with top 6.7% of hands (88,ATs+,AQo+)
    -If one of the earlier positions call, the later ones would only overcall with QQ+,AKs



    The question is whether UTG+1 was shoving 20% of their hands when they had to go through the big stacks (UTG+2, MP1, MP2) to their left. I think a lot of players would be a bit tighter than that range in that position - or would wait until they are in a later position so that they have less people to go through.
    I think 20% is fairly std. some will be way wider and some tighter. But I think in spots like this we can be slightly negative ev, since the blinds will likely go up by the next orbit, when we hit the blinds we will have very little bbs left, and we are very likely to get pre-empted by other shovers until we hit the blinds.
  • UnknownUnknown
    Richard~ wrote: »
    I would fold, we still have som fold equity vs bad players
    omgclaydoll (a dc pro) says this all the time but I think its important to note that 'having fold equity' and putting a hh into nash or sngwiz are pretty much the same thing.

    The question is I guess is this marginal or -ev hand better than the alternative which is something between now and sitting on the button after going through the blinds and having the blinds increase. So we have to push withing the next 7 hands or something

    sngwiz/nash....doesn't account for the blinds or the blinds going up
  • Richard~Richard~
    fold equity we shouldn't have is really hard to model since it's such a huuuge boots in chip ev in certain situations. I don't think calling QJ is neutral cEV vs an unknown range but I could be wrong. It's really hard to analyze but the pros of folding is that we tap into the possible huuuuge boost in cEV :P
  • UnknownUnknown
    Richard~ wrote: »
    fold equity we shouldn't have is really hard to model since it's such a huuuge boots in chip ev in certain situations.
    yes its trueish but if we chip up here we gain a lot of fold equity in situations too


    Richard~ wrote: »
    I don't think calling QJ is neutral cEV vs an unknown range but I could be wrong.
    well the boys said it was but i thought its a lil negative too

    as i get closer to the blinds im gonna start thinking about taking a -ev shove so I'm somewhat comparing the two, thinking this is gonna be a better spot
  • Richard~Richard~
    I think you're gonna agree with me on this one :P

    in turbos one big thing we profit from is people shoving too tight and calling too tight, there's a good chance those numbers need to be adjusted
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