Can I get away from this hand?
Hey Dave,
With my 1st trip to WSOP looming, I'm looking at leaks in my game. I have a few that I know about, and probably lots more that I don't. The one I'd like to address here, and hopefully get a handle on within the next week or so, is my inability to fold 2nd best hands.
Even when I have a strong feeling that it's 2nd best. I've been playing a lot of $20 NL multis online to practice up, and here's an example of what I mean:
2nd round of tourney, 15-30 blinds. Folded to me in MP, I raise it up to 90 with AQo. I get one caller in LP, both blinds fold.
Flop: TQ2 rainbow. I bet 250 because I want to end it, and LP just calls.
Turn: A. I have top 2. I bet 500. He raises all-in for another 750 or so, he has me just barely covered. It's too early for me to have a read on him--not sure if he's tight or loose or whatever. I fear JK. But I call anyways.
River's a brick, he show TT for a flopped set, and I'm out.
If this happens at WSOP I think I'll probably cry at the table.
Is there any way I can get away from this hand?
Thanks very much,
all_aces
With my 1st trip to WSOP looming, I'm looking at leaks in my game. I have a few that I know about, and probably lots more that I don't. The one I'd like to address here, and hopefully get a handle on within the next week or so, is my inability to fold 2nd best hands.
Even when I have a strong feeling that it's 2nd best. I've been playing a lot of $20 NL multis online to practice up, and here's an example of what I mean:
2nd round of tourney, 15-30 blinds. Folded to me in MP, I raise it up to 90 with AQo. I get one caller in LP, both blinds fold.
Flop: TQ2 rainbow. I bet 250 because I want to end it, and LP just calls.
Turn: A. I have top 2. I bet 500. He raises all-in for another 750 or so, he has me just barely covered. It's too early for me to have a read on him--not sure if he's tight or loose or whatever. I fear JK. But I call anyways.
River's a brick, he show TT for a flopped set, and I'm out.
If this happens at WSOP I think I'll probably cry at the table.
Is there any way I can get away from this hand?
Thanks very much,
all_aces
Comments
AND also, by folding on the river your opponent never gets a look at your hand. You still get to see his though. ~~~
This is where I get worried. Him calling here says he probably beats top pair.
Unless you're up against someone you've observed as a calling station, I think a calling a large bet usually very much *means* something.
A bad card for you here in the sense that it's not likely to improve your hand *relative* to your opponent. The Ace only helps you in this sense if your opponent is in there with QT, T2, or KK, all of which seem unlikely.
Also, even if your opponent is still in there with a foolish straight draw (KJ pre-flop seems as unlikely as the previously mentioned hands), he just hit it.
Your bet of ~250 on the flop makes perfect sense to me, but I'd be inclined to check the turn and fold to a large bet. Another medium size "feeler" bet might be okay too. I might instead shoot another 250 out there and go ahead and fold if my opponent pushed in.
Another thing to keep in mind is what the plausible hands are for your opponent. It's true that you can pick off a bluff here, but there aren't too many legitimate (i.e. worth moving all-in with) hands your opponent could have which you can beat. It's also alarming to me whenever a card which (apparently) improves my hand is not the least bit of a scare card to your opponent. Apart from a possible bluff, your opponent moving in after the Ace falls says he can beat the hands that the Ace might have helped.
A very difficult fold in any case, and it's not impossible to imagine having the same decision again, calling, and winning the hand (e.g. if your opponent made a bad call on the flop with some trash like AK or AT).
ScottyZ
So far I think I play the hand the very same way. His call of 90 doesn't mean that much. He is *probably* on what I name an "implied odds" call. He is willing to look at the flop for 90 with a small pair or suited connectors hoping to hit the flop and take you off for your whole stack. He also might be slow playing a BIG pair ... A-A and K-K come to mind.
ON THE OTHER HAND... this is the 2nd level of a $20 tourney. He might in fact have the sound of TV static running through his mind and nothing more.
Oh oh. This is a problem.
Two things to think about. First, he EXPECTS to get called. At least I would guess he does. You have shown all kinds of strength. So... what are the hand that he will make this raise with that wants to be called with?
A-K is certainly possible. Any set. I will also give him K-J. I think there are LOTS of players in $20 multis that might play K-J for $90 and then NEVER fold an open straight draw. Also, he might have a hand like A-Ts, A-Q, or even A-2s.
You are offered 750 into a 1750 pot. Obviously, you do not have the odds to draw if you are beat... this becomes a complete questions of psychology. What does he have? What are the consequences of being wrong?
On balance I favour folding. He has a hand that EXPECTS to get called. Your hits are "in the open." In other words, he is able to take a pretty good guess at what you have. And.. the consequences are severe -- you are out. So, fold. 750 is still enough to do battle.
Having said all that... I might STILL call. Folds like this, in the heat of combat, are one of the things the seperate the REAL players from the rest of us. Any slack-jawed California mid-limit pro can put down top pair. Putting down sets or top two is a little more difficult.
I have new phrase I am rehearsing for the main event. Facing a tough decision: "Time! I am a little nervous and I think my Depends is full. Some pee just leaked out. I need to change my diaper." The the denial. Then the crying.
Good luck at the WSOP. There's no feeling like a WSOP final table.
ROTFLMAO
You have to get to the final table at a WPT event and say this, because that will cause Vince Van Patten to say, "If someone at your table ever says this, *run*, don't walk, out of the casino."
"Baby made a boom-boom."
ScottyZ
Yeah, I didn't have it in me. I wish I did... I had that nagging feeling that something was seriously not cool. Hope I listen to it next time.
I think it was Sam Farha who laid down top 2--jacks and queens--in a recent WSOP. His opponent had turned a set, and Farha got his second pair (the queen I think) on the river. I guess that's what seperates the men from the boys in this level of play.
Your points about his expectation of being called are good ones. If my opponent fully expects a call based on pot size and betting action so far, that can't be good for me. I guess it's like when someone bets T500 all-in into a big stack and a T2500 pot on the flop. They either have a strong hand, or it's the worst bluff attempt in all of history.
However, I didn't have to call his all-in raise in this spot, but I did anyways. Arg.
Thanks Dave. I leave in three days, and I'm very excited about my first trip to Vegas/WSOP. Good luck to you as well in the Big One.
Regards,
all_aces
Years ago I published a little magazine called "Canadian Poker Monthly" - Nothing compared to our current venture. In it was an article written by a Vancouver player by the name of Robert Copps that I often think of. Basically, he suggested that you NEED to trust yourself. It is a skill that develops over time. And... it gets better. The more you trust yourself the more you find out that you are right. The more you find that you are right the more you are able to make the tougher decisions. Etc etc etc.
Or, it's a good bluff because he knows that you know that he would never bluff in that spot.
Well, most of the time I prefer your line of thinking here, because the big stack is normally getting good enough pot odds to call even with 2 undercards. (Well, it's pretty close at 5:1 in this example... you're probably right to call in this example thinking your opponent may have also missed.) It really depends on your assessment of the possible bluffer's skill level. Only a very bad player (who doesn't know better) or very good player (who is thinking on several levels, and knows you will not read him for a bluff here) would consider the sort of small all-in bluff you are talking about. You can put the short stack on a good hand a huge percentage of the time if he stacks in.
And you have to call anyway. 8)
Best of luck to you both at the WSOP!
ScottyZ
That sounds like a viscious cycle I'd like to be a part of.
ScottyZ:
OK, Scotty, now my head hurts. Poker's hard. He would, in this hypthetical situation, have to know that I'm an OK player in order for the "he knows that you know that he would...." plan to work. I tend not to give off the impression of being an OK player.
Thanks man. I'm going to need it.
Regards,
all_aces