Stumped
6 left in a 21 player tourney. $10+$1 to enter, top 3 paid. Levels are 10 mins.
I am in 2nd place at the time of this hand with 7,965 in chips and the opponent who is the SB has 5,462
Blinds at 100-200.
Me: :ad:qh
UTG folds
UTG+1(me) raises to 550
UTG2 folds
Dealer folds
SB calls
BB folds.
FOP: :6d:5d:qs
SB checks
I bet 975
SB calls
TURN: :4d
SB insta-jams 4,117
I have a decision to make. I have top pair with top kicker and a draw to the ace high flush.
Opponent's possible hands? suited connector diamonds such as J-10, Q-J, K-Q, maybe pocket 5's or 6's and maybe a slim chance of any suited connected 7-8 except diamonds.
Did he hit his straight on the turn? Did he hit his flush? Does he have a set?
I don't put him on 2p because I would think he would have c/r on the flop. I also don't put him on a high PP, I think I would have been reraised pre. If he did hit any of these hands, I have to assume that he must think I have the :ad and wants it to end right there.
If I call and win, I'll still be in 2nd but with a considerbale cushion between rest of the field. If I lose, I'd sit in 5th with just over 2k....
I am in 2nd place at the time of this hand with 7,965 in chips and the opponent who is the SB has 5,462
Blinds at 100-200.
Me: :ad:qh
UTG folds
UTG+1(me) raises to 550
UTG2 folds
Dealer folds
SB calls
BB folds.
FOP: :6d:5d:qs
SB checks
I bet 975
SB calls
TURN: :4d
SB insta-jams 4,117
I have a decision to make. I have top pair with top kicker and a draw to the ace high flush.
Opponent's possible hands? suited connector diamonds such as J-10, Q-J, K-Q, maybe pocket 5's or 6's and maybe a slim chance of any suited connected 7-8 except diamonds.
Did he hit his straight on the turn? Did he hit his flush? Does he have a set?
I don't put him on 2p because I would think he would have c/r on the flop. I also don't put him on a high PP, I think I would have been reraised pre. If he did hit any of these hands, I have to assume that he must think I have the :ad and wants it to end right there.
If I call and win, I'll still be in 2nd but with a considerbale cushion between rest of the field. If I lose, I'd sit in 5th with just over 2k....
Comments
wat?
oh yeah..and he never jams two diamonds..
This is pretty much my assumption too. Should be an easy enough call
Villain probably has 87 maybe with 1 diamond and wants to take down the pot there or he has 44 and turned a set. I can't see villain jamming 77-1010 there given the over card unless villain has the a hand like 7d7x or 8d8x for a combo draw. If we are ahead, we are probably way ahead....I dunno, I think still it is a fold.
Either way, it is a very weird line by villain.
Board: 6d 5d Qs
win
Hand 0: 58.626% { AdQh }
Hand 1: 41.374% { 66-55, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d,
8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d, 3d2d, AcKd, AdKc,
AdKh, AdKs, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd,
QcJd, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJd, QsJd }
If he's bluffing, whatever, nice hand.
look at all this random data that doesn't actually help us <.<
I would think I agree on he either has a set or maybe even AQ/KQ, and just wants to make you pay to draw to the fourth diamond.
not claiming this helps, makes sense, or is right....
Board: 6d 5d Qs 4d
Eq
Hand 0: 44.215% { AdQh }
Hand 1: 55.785% { 66-55, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d,
8d7d, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd,
KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd }
So we might even think we are behind vs. his range but the pot odds will surely make up for that. Plus we can give some random air to his range and feel like its a snap call.
I appreciate the input from everyone by the way.. Been very absent from the board since posting but will be going over the full thread in the next day or two and see just how chicken I really was
Put 87 with 1 diamond, 7d7x and 8d8x in their range and see how it changes.
Not that I think a lot villains ranges exist solely in that range, but I think we have to include it in villains range.
With dead money, it may still be a call. But I stay with my first position of it is a very close fold.