Your Move Here?
I was able to play at Seneca last weekend for about an hour. $1-2 NL and I bought in for $150 which was probably a bit above average for the table. I won a few small pots without showdowns and won a few showing down decent hands. I would say that my table image was pretty solid. Anyway, near the end of the session my stack is probably around $175 or so. I pick up AQd in LP. There have been 4 limpers, I pop it to $9, lady on button calls, BB calls, everyone else folds. Flop comes Kd Qh 9d, which is pretty much a dream I think. Checked to me I fire out $20. Button calls, BB folds. Turn brings Ac, giving me two pair and the redraw to the fullhouse. I bet around $40 and the button calls again. (She has shown down no hands, played fairly tight, lost one hand to trip aces where she says she had two pair and she has about $125 behind) River is a 2s. Your play...?
Results in white below:
I checked and she checked behind. I really didn't want to get raised here.
She showed down A9s and lost to my AQd for the better two pair.
Results in white below:
I checked and she checked behind. I really didn't want to get raised here.
She showed down A9s and lost to my AQd for the better two pair.
Comments
I probably bet for value here, and here is my thinking...
The hands that beat you are TJ, AA, KK, QQ, 99, AK (assuming 22 folds the flop). Now lets consider her action if she holds any of these hands...
TJ - is possible, I know you made a small raise preflop and I don't know how tight she is, but I feel that TJ could make up part of her range considering she has the button. I am probably eliminating this hand as she never re-raised us holding the nuts with two diamonds on board.
AA - I eliminate this hand, as I would have expected a re-raise preflop, and if not then, I really expect it on the flop/turn with so many draws out there. It is also a little less likely given that we hold one A and another showed up on the turn. This hand has to be pretty rare here!
KK - I eliminate this hand, as I would have expected a raise preflop. If not then, I would really expect more aggresion with top set on such a draw heavy board.
QQ - I eliminate this hand for the same reason as KK, and the added fact that I have a Q in my hand. This hand has to be pretty rare!
99 - This hand is possible, I can see her just flat calling with 99 and evaluating the flop. However, I would expect more aggresion on such a draw heavy board.
AK - This hand is possible, but I would expect a re-raise from the button pre-flop if they are holding AK, but I know some people don't raise AK "because it's just a drawing hand..." lol
So if I can eliminate alot of the hands that beat me, what does she have?
-She could have a busted flush draw (too bad she doesn't hit if this is the case)
-She could have a smaller 2 pair (this is possible but sometimes tough as you would likely share a card)
-She could have a pair and a straight draw (KJ, AJ, QJ, etc.). if she is holding these, I'm not sure how much value you could extract on the river.
It is tough to really put her on much of hand, outside of 2 pair, she either crushes you, or she just missed everything. I still think I bet for value in this spot, and if i do bet, I don't think I am ever folding, even if you bet half pot, thats already $72. It is live, so mayber you should just bet $50 (not that I think this is a good bet, but I'm sure you will extract value from alot of Ax hands with that bet, with $56 left you can't really fold to a shove without some amazing read (but hopefully you already have that information...)
I understand your check here, but it just seems that you will be good too often not to extract some value. More reads would make this easier to judge, but having only been at the table a short time makes it tougher.