Shiity Set Spot?
This one is live $1-2 NLHE, min b/i $50, max $500
In this hand, I'm in middle position, holding a very LAG line for about 2 hours:
Players:
UTG+1: Horrible, just horrible, players you dream of at your table....2nd pair calling station ($300'ish)
Button: Uber tight older euro...pretty much has only played the nuts or better all night ($550'ish)
Me: Playing my laggy best ($1400)
Action:
UTG+1: limp
one more caller
Me: (4,4) raise to $15
Folds to button
Button: re-raise to $35
UTG+1: flat? (really luv this guy at the table)
Me: call
Flop: As 10d 4c
UTG+1: Check
Me: Check
Button: Bets $75
UTG+1: Calls
Me: Call
Turn: 7h
UTG+1: Check
Me: Check
Button: Ships about $450 all-in
UTG+1: fold
Me: ?
Now I know the ridicule for possibly folding a set here will be coming....here's my mental notes on the Button:
3-bet exactly zero times in 2.5 hrs playing with him (and I always give alot of opportunities for getting threed). Seen one hand of his when he opened pre, bunch of callers (as well as me in the SB), flop K J 7, he doubles through me holding KK (I have J7 obv), in which I put him all in on the check raise.
Is there ever a spot to fold a set on a dry board?..........or do u chalk it up to variance and fistpump snap call?
What hands does this villain have in his range?
In this hand, I'm in middle position, holding a very LAG line for about 2 hours:
Players:
UTG+1: Horrible, just horrible, players you dream of at your table....2nd pair calling station ($300'ish)
Button: Uber tight older euro...pretty much has only played the nuts or better all night ($550'ish)
Me: Playing my laggy best ($1400)
Action:
UTG+1: limp
one more caller
Me: (4,4) raise to $15
Folds to button
Button: re-raise to $35
UTG+1: flat? (really luv this guy at the table)
Me: call
Flop: As 10d 4c
UTG+1: Check
Me: Check
Button: Bets $75
UTG+1: Calls
Me: Call
Turn: 7h
UTG+1: Check
Me: Check
Button: Ships about $450 all-in
UTG+1: fold
Me: ?
Now I know the ridicule for possibly folding a set here will be coming....here's my mental notes on the Button:
3-bet exactly zero times in 2.5 hrs playing with him (and I always give alot of opportunities for getting threed). Seen one hand of his when he opened pre, bunch of callers (as well as me in the SB), flop K J 7, he doubles through me holding KK (I have J7 obv), in which I put him all in on the check raise.
Is there ever a spot to fold a set on a dry board?..........or do u chalk it up to variance and fistpump snap call?
What hands does this villain have in his range?
Comments
Based on your description I guess his range is AA possibly 1010 if he can ever 3bet that and possibly AK if he spews that postflop and also the constant live player random card spew factor that you have to account a little bit for
It's hard to fold a set.
It's impossible on that board with the action the way it went to fold. PERIOD.
His range to my mind is AT+/AA.
Now I also keep in mind to myself that 2.5 hours is NOT long enough to get an idea of a players 3bet range with a huge amount of accuracy.
So stove your question vs. that range.
Board: As Td 4c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.188% 92.19% 00.00% 5841 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 07.813% 07.81% 00.00% 495 0.00 { AA, ATs+, ATo+ }
Add in TT:
Board: As Td 4c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.898% 86.90% 00.00% 5850 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 13.102% 13.10% 00.00% 882 0.00 { AA, TT, ATs+, ATo+ }
EDIT!!!!
I (after thinking about this) even ran a stove for AA,TT,AKs/Ako (Richards range above). and you are still a 67-32% favourite.
This seems to be typical MUB, you got the exact spot you wanted, a guy shipping into you and you hold a strong hand (3rd nuts on flop, 4th on turn), and you are thinking about folding?
Long term, it's likely a call. But there will be better spots, and that's what live poker is about. Not many people can play a million hands live.
If this was a younger kid, I'd have the chips in the middle before his.
Not saying your wrong but we can't discount aces or a set ever here. Its perfectly reasonable for him to check flop and jam turn.
I don't like squeezing with 44 pre but maybe its ok cause its really deep? with 100bbs or so I think its not good.
His button 3bet i think can be looked at as a 4bet and he likely never has AT AJ and maybe even never AQ.
Unless you think your image has caused him to get smart one time. But I think we trick ourselves too much in thinking our opponents ever truly adjust to us.
also we don't really ever have to fold a set to set
If he doesn't 3bet ak then your drawing to like 7%, but if he does your 80% if I can't absolutely get ak out of his range then I'd call...
I will be the one who nit folds this more often than not when the hand plays like this. I'm not saying a call is wrong, just that given what you said about him always showing up with the nuts, I dont think the call is right. Keep in mind, we are playing 1/2 live. I believe the OP is from edmonton. These games are special.
Given all this, the line I would of took was to check raise the turn to 180ish. You can go 220 if you feel strong. If he then shoves over, snap fold. If he calls, shove turn.
It all comes down to how often you really think he does this with AK. If you think it's a decent % of the time, put the chips in. If you feel, like I do, that he would play AK slower, fold.
Call worse case senerio he has AA and you bink a 4 on the river! easy game
I never said that lol
I'm never folding here preflop with stack sizes.....ever.....not saying calling is wrong....asking if it's ever OK to fold.
Agree somewhat to the 2.5hrs of play line.....but I'm sure if any of you were there, you would have seen it the same way I explained (basically a super predictable 60 year old with some kind of Schwartzenegger accent).
I run the math, for about an hour now because I wanted to make sure I was right. If I'm still wrong, I'm going to spend a week in grade school.
(amount in pot)705:450(amount we have to call)
Calculator says this is 1.56:1 or 3:2. Which means we have to win 2 times out of every 3 or 66% of the time, making this a break even call based on Richards range for button. That makes it far from a snap call, or even an easy decision once the reads are factored in.
On a side note, to do this at the table, break it down. 705:450 = 70:45 = 14:9. 9 goes into 14 1.5 times. Which gives you 1.5:1
is it 40% because we are getting a better deal on our money 1 for 1
T8, is this someone you have played with other times? Could he be cognizant of what you think of him and be using that very fact? It's something I will do against an uber lag (but also good player) who I know has the ability to fold.
I can only think of one time that I have been called in this situation but probably have done it successfully 7-8 times. I would NOT do this against a random. Plenty of better spots.
I think we discussed something like this in a different thread, and I posted something along those lines. I'm going to say I was wrong there, i was likely only considering the times the bet pot. An overshove is a special situation that I probably wasn't thinking about at that time. Sorry if that is what you were recalling.
Regardless of it all, great hand to post about T8. It's making me really use my brain today! It's not a clear cut choice in either direction.
AK on AT47 is the nuts to 99% of live 1/2 players. It's so unlikely he's thinking about what you have but is just used to making big bets with strong hands and having some player call their stacks off and lose to them.
If they lose, it's because they were unlucky.
This is true for pretty much every older player I've ever played with. Heck this is true to most 1/2 players.
Side note, the way again 99% of 1/2 players play a set is they SLOW PLAY IT. Not bet flop/ ship the turn. They view AK different from a set (even though they are pretty much essentially the same hand on that board) and bet AK for value, while slowplay the monster that is a flopped set. They would at least check the flop back to try to let someone 'get something'
Why would he ever play AK slow???
I don't understand this fear of monsters under the bed. You beat AT/AK which makes up a significant percentage of his range here.
Even just look at the combinatorics of the situation:
There are just 3 combinations of either TT or AA. So 6 combinations to fear that you are losing to.
There are 12 combinations of AK. Another 12 of AQ and another 12 of AJ. There are 9 combinations of AT.
So even if it's JUST TT or AA or AK, AK is twice as likely mathematically than either pocket pair. Never mind how many combos there are as you add other hands.
You are wrong.
This is a call 100% of the time here unless he flips over and shows me AA's or TT's before I call.
It's a +ev play always and the fact that anyone could consider a fold here boggles my mind without any 'special' read. Which essentially would be, you have played with this guy for 6 months and the only time in 6 months he's 3 bet is with AA's.
This is not a Shitty Set Spot, this is Valuetown, population.. You.
Side note, post this in Small Stakes on 2+2, see what type of responses you get. I would love to see what they have to say.
Zunni, respectfully, you are way to simplistic in your reasoning to take such a strong position for calling. I find it hard to believe that you have played a lot of 1/2 and really believe it. While I certainly don't fault a call here and would very likely call myself most of the time. There is certainly a case for folding, maybe not a strong one but a case nonetheless...
But this is why this is a great thread, as it brings out multiple opinions and thoughts.
ev1 please continue.. all very valuable info for this old nit.
Sorry, this thought process was bothering me so much I had to come back downstairs from being in bed just to post this.
What better spots are you going to be shoved into where you are ahead 86-92% of a very selective range for your opponent ON THE TURN??
In order for that to happen, you need to have the nuts, and your opponent misread their hand and think they have the nuts and shove into you (like you have Straight flush and your opponent has the nut flush), this is so unlikely that I've seen it happen once in 4 years of regular live play. So not a 'better spot' that you are likely going to run into.
I also wanted to say that I don't think any of us should be short selling the potential range of an older 3better after 2.5 hours of observation. (especially if this is the first time he's 3bet). To eliminate AQ/AJ from the range of hands he's likely to have is a mistake imo. Especially if we are keeping TT's??
hmmm.....partially agree....but I'd have to say that 99% of players are not going to ship with AK in this spot let alone AA....I'd be surprised if 10% did.
I didn't mention in that previous hand where he had top set, and me bottom two........he did not slow play, as it was checked to him, and I check raised, he snap shoves, and I have to call.
Indeed, but probably not played this fast either.
Obviously I'm 'almost' never folding a set on a dry board....this is an extreme circumstance that made me recondsider...
lol........OK, let's see me get flamed....
Anyhow, result of the hand, I folded face up after tanking for a few minutes.
He shows AA........
Maybe a bad fold......but at what point do you trust your read on the situation?
I think longterm, it's for sure +ev to call here. I just couldn't justify the call when I was 75% sure I was beat.
I don't disagree, but given the way that the action went, AK is way more likely than AA's (never mind the combinatorics of the situation). He leads the flop with AK hoping someone has a piece big enough to call (another A perhaps), and once he feels like you have a piece and a blank comes on the turn, he ships because he feels he's way ahead and you have to have a piece big enough to call.
Typically a guy with AA's won't play it that way because he knows there's only one Ace left and it's unlikely you have a piece. He will take a card or two off and hope you get 2 pair and can call a river bet.
Action is totally different here. He's already got someone on the line that will likely call his all-in. IE. you check-raised.
Wow, this guy is terri-horrible. I think this is one of these players you make a note on and snap-fold to any 3-bet because he's obviously not smart enough to disguise his hand strength in any way/shape/form. Certainly not common.
Regardless of results (and most/all of you know why), I get this in 100 times out of 100 against any unknown or fairly unknown player. When he shows me this, I drink his milkshake for the rest of this session and any others I play against him because he has shown himself to be beyond transparent. Nice you didn't have to pay to prove you were right.
Oh and I do think posting this on 2+2 is a good idea (Live Low Limit is the forum you want), link the thread here. I'd love to see if I'm way off in my analysis.
Set Spot - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum - Live Poker Low-stakes NL
However if we decided villain had a uber tight 3bet range here we can fold on an ace high board if he never bluff shoves.
We hit out set about 1 in 7 and there is an ace on the flop about 1 in 4......comes out to about 14% we hit but 25% of that 14% we have to fold to an Ace high flop.......
seems you need 10 to 1 on your money assuming the villain stacks always which is true in one sense because his range is so nutted ....but not so much if he has QQ or KK and an over card comes off for him
just saying it can still be profitable.... not quite sure it is here....prob still a little.
I think we can get a big enough sample in some situations especially live within secs......but you crush as....and therefore.....you ARE the math.... :-\
we can calculate that easy too by adding in some random hands or by slipping in some versions of ak like just suited if we want 25% or just a couple versions if we want less.
So we can do the math on what you are saying and it skews it towards calling but really villain has to be doing this with AK to make this a call ....its what T8 is saying and I think its a valid question and a NH
maybe horrible but i think predictable is better. but if we had this note before this hand we would surely fold on this turn i think.
I did the math that shows you have to win 66% of the time to break even. And I ball parked, but I would say you need at least 62%. If you want to snap call here virtual break even plays, I hope you have deep bankroll. Personally, I will wait for one of those spots where my money is going in better.
Consider this, if he overshoves for 900 are you calling? I will agree with you that he is a terri-horrible player. I will also agree that in 95% of the times this can happen, it's a call. Just not this time. The read is that he only shows up with the nuts. If he is abusing this, all the power to him. I'll get him next time.
As for him range balancing, he is a mid 60s 1/2 live player. I doubt he even knows what range is, let alone how to properly balance it. Bad players are bad. This is why over shoving works so well, 95% of players snap call with 44. I only have to take you to shove Ville once to make up for a lot of trips to valuetown.
I'm going to just agree to disagree on everything else.
I'll go back and edit some posts this morning when I turn my laptop on. Maybe now I can get some sleep.