Milo takes the plunge

MiloMilo
in No Limit / Pot Limit Holdem
First some explaining, then some back ground, then the pay-off, and then some questions.

I have not figured out how to get the HH from Winner poker, so I am typing it off the site.

Villain has been aggressive with most Ax hands, has shown a couple bluffs, including getting me to fold a better hand at the river. I have been trying to play very disciplined, and have folded a couple hands re-raised preflop. Think I have established a solid image in the 20 minutes or so at the table, but what do I know? So, here goes . . .

Playing NLHE $0.10/$0.20 Blinds, max. buy-in of $20.00. 6 max. table

SB posts - $0.10
BB posts - $0.20
Villain - raise to $0.70 (UTG)
PlayerA - FOLDS
Hero (KK)- raise to $2.40

Folds to Villain who calls the raise. Pot is $5.10

Flop comes - Qd, 8s, 3s,
Villain - checks
Hero - bet $3.82
Villain - calls $3.82. Pot is $12.74

Turn comes Ac
Villain - checks
Hero - checks

River comes 2d. Board is Qd, 8s, 3s, Ac, 2d

Villain - bets $20.47 after letting his timer drop 3/4 of the way to zero.

What do you do and why? I do not have a HUD, so cannot provide any of that info. I will post my thoughts and final decision later.

Comments

  • UnknownUnknown
    fold...he has every set on that board plus a few aces in his range...and because its such an overbet you have to be right alot....which means he has to be bluffing alot....i think
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    I am thinking villain saw how much you hated that Ace and decided to try and bluff the river, repping the Ace. I don't think a set is just calling that flop and/or checking the turn.

    He could have As-Xs and now has the nut flush and makes an over bet to look like a bluff. The only other hand, besides a flush draw that takes this line is AQ.
  • MiloMilo
    No flush is possible, and the only straight that gets there is 4,5 . . . cannot see that in his range.

    Based on previous play, I literally thought it was a coin flip between him having the Ace, or betting with air.

    I thought he would have bet the turn, whether he had it or not. The fact that he did not, made me think the Ace was a scare card for him, too.
  • OneTime1TimeOneTime1Time
    Since you don't list how much you started the hand with, I'm going to use $20. After all the action, you have $13.78 left, which means you call that much into a pot of $26.52. You are getting slightly under 2:1 odds, meaning you have to be the best hand just more than 30% of the time to make this a profitable call. (In contrast, if you have him covered, you have to call $20.47 to win $33.21, give you a little better than 1.6:1. You'll have to be right more than 40% of the time to be profitable then.)

    Without a HuD, it's difficult to say what exactly his range is here, but it definitely includes all the hands Darbday listed. It also likely includes KQ, QJ, possibly QT suited, and most Pocket Pairs.

    One question I have is why did you check the turn? If you feel he floated you with an Ace, it's an easy fold at the river. Personally, I'd have led the turn with the intention of getting it in. The reason I ask, is because from his view, it looks like you have JJ or TT. You 3bet pre, cb the flop, check scary turn. Had you bet the turn, you would of commited yourself, taking this option away from him. Unfortunately, I can't come up with a turn bet where you could really fold if he shoves :(

    After an hour of thinking, I don't like this hand at all. It's a reminder of why I don't play 25NL. I would call purely because it's only $12 dollars, and I fail at bankroll management.
  • MiloMilo
    He had me covered by about a $1.00 or thereabouts. I started the hand with $26.18. The reason I checked behind is that I am an idiot. Also, If I bet 1/2 to 2/3 the pot on the turn, can I fold to a shove after putting in 1/3 of my remaining stack? Figured it was safer, if I was still ahead, to keep the pot smaller and see what came on the river.
  • MiloMilo
    Long story short, I thought about the play of the hand, and the brief history I had on hand. Everything he had done to that point made me believe that the River bet was designed to get me to "go away" with anything short of the nuts. That made me switch to thinking about "Figure out what your opponent wants you to do, and disappoint them." So, after debating between the Hero call and the meek fold, I decided to cross my digits and call the bet.


    KK > Jd/10d
  • MiloMilo
    Next question is this: Take the double up and run? Or settle in to grind out even more $$$?
  • UnknownUnknown
    OneTime1Time wrote: »
    You'll have to be right more than 40% of the time to be profitable then.)
    i totally don't know the numbers but i think you mean 60% the other half of 100
    you have to be right more than half...or im wrong...
  • OneTime1TimeOneTime1Time
    darbday wrote: »
    i totally don't know the numbers but i think you mean 60% the other half of 100
    you have to be right more than half...or im wrong...

    Try looking at it this way. If we flip a coin, and I give you $2 every time it lands on heads, and you pay me $1 dollar for every tails, you are getting a 2:1 prop. In order for you to break even, you only have to win 33% of all the flips. It's the same in poker, when you are faced with a Pot Sized bet. You have to call 1 Pot Bet to win 2 Pot Bets. So you only have to win 33% of the time to break even.

    The 40% I listed above was off the top of my head napkin math, it won't be exact. An interesting note though, is that you will never be in a situation where you have to win more than 50% of the time to be profitable. It's not possible in poker.
  • UnknownUnknown
    OneTime1Time wrote: »
    Try looking at it this way. If we flip a coin, and I give you $2 every time it lands on heads, and you pay me $1 dollar for every tails, you are getting a 2:1 prop. In order for you to break even, you only have to win 33% of all the flips. It's the same in poker, when you are faced with a Pot Sized bet. You have to call 1 Pot Bet to win 2 Pot Bets. So you only have to win 33% of the time to break even.

    The 40% I listed above was off the top of my head napkin math, it won't be exact. An interesting note though, is that you will never be in a situation where you have to win more than 50% of the time to be profitable. It's not possible in poker.
    k i re read off the tables and ya i think your correct ( you prob know you are)...

    i think im thinking when we over bet bluff we need a fold more often than 50% like if we 2x pot it.....can't wrap my brain around it right now tho.....
  • OneTime1TimeOneTime1Time
    Yup, you are right that if you over bet they need to fold lots. A 2x Pot works out to about 67% with 1.5xPot being 60%.
  • UnknownUnknown
    OneTime1Time wrote: »
    Yup, you are right that if you over bet they need to fold lots. A 2x Pot works out to about 67% with 1.5xPot being 60%.
    ahh then backwards me
  • UnknownUnknown
    whats your read? if he is very passive I bet fold turn if he is call center, I get it in on the river..... if hes agro I bet/call turn
  • HammerDadHammerDad
    I think this is a standard call in most cases.

    I think when you check the turn you've turned your hand face up as being KK. While villains does have many AX hands in their range, I think they have more Qx hands in their range that we beat.

    I don't put villain on a set here often. Given the draws out there, a villain is more likely to c/r a set on the flop. With the blank river, villain is also more likely to c/r a set for value hoping you have an Ace then over bet pot when the least likely draw gets there.
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