thoughts

betrthanphil

just want to see what others think here. Dont really want someone to just write fold or call. want to hear thought process on decision. ranges and such

PokerStars Game #66826264786: Tournament #433845271, $665+$35 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2011/08/31 17:12:17 ET
Table '433845271 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: twirlpro (2745 in chips)
Seat 2: NCSU2012 (3050 in chips)
Seat 4: merkurstar (1785 in chips)
Seat 5: anarhi (3190 in chips)
Seat 7: BetrThanPhil (5835 in chips)
Seat 8: nagyy88 (4580 in chips)
Seat 9: cdnblaster (1775 in chips)
anarhi: posts small blind 20
BetrThanPhil: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BetrThanPhil [8d 9c]
nagyy88: folds
cdnblaster: folds
niccc is connected
twirlpro: folds
NCSU2012: folds
merkurstar: folds
anarhi: calls 20
BetrThanPhil: checks
*** FLOP *** [9h 2h 3s]
anarhi: bets 80
BetrThanPhil: calls 80
*** TURN *** [9h 2h 3s] [6s]
anarhi: bets 200
BetrThanPhil: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [9h 2h 3s 6s] [7d]
anarhi: checks
BetrThanPhil: bets 385
anarhi: raises 615 to 1000
BetrThanPhil:??

getem76

the 10 8 of hearts was trying to steal it?? unlikely but outside that your either losing to a small set....shgould have some 3-bet the flop perhaps? I wouldnt call it an error but then you have a better idea where you are....this might be a fold to a good bluff IMO

Unknown

sb complete is obv atc not as likely qq+ not so much 72o

flop donk is most of his range too every pair...gutshots ...over cards A high...not likely sets or two pair as much

turn bet is most of the same range....prob less air...maybe pair +gushot....but i think that at this point when hes stronger he starts to bet bigger....

i feel like he value bets any hands the river completes and plans to check fold his air....but he can't sit on his missed draw.....

i think i could snap this depeneding on the time...whether or not he obv planned to by snap check raising or took sometime to wish he drew out...and decide to bluff....

djgolfcan

Fold. And here's why - Villain knows you have a piece of that board, otherwise you are not calling his flop and turn bet without something, but you didn't raise him either, so he knows you are not that strong.

Checking the river allows him to get extra value from his hand, knowing you would see the check as weak, like he missed his draw, so you'd bet and he could check raise, hoping to get another call from you and a few more chips.

Pretty sure you were behind the whole way.

betrthanphil

ok heres my thoughts, first off getem, im never raising flop. ever haha. DJ your thoughts are almost perfect but not quite. The way you read the hand is why I think its a call. What hands can he check raise the river. 45, 85, 108 and 77 I think are the only ones. Now 108 and 85 are very unlikely unless it was combo with a flush draw. 45 is possible but i see him leading the river and 77 and I like a check raise on the river. But as you said he knows I have something but am not that strong, so any bet he makes on river im prob going to call, so his only way to win the pot on the river is a check raise IMO so he looks super strong. I did end up calling after thinking it all through and he had a8s.

SO dj if he thought i had something but wasnt that strong id expect him to just value the river.

Unknown

betrthanphil wrote: »

ok heres my thoughts, first off getem, im never raising flop. ever haha. DJ your thoughts are almost perfect but not quite. The way you read the hand is why I think its a call. What hands can he check raise the river. 45, 85, 108 and 77 I think are the only ones. Now 108 and 85 are very unlikely unless it was combo with a flush draw. 45 is possible but i see him leading the river and 77 and I like a check raise on the river. But as you said he knows I have something but am not that strong, so any bet he makes on river im prob going to call, so his only way to win the pot on the river is a check raise IMO so he looks super strong. I did end up calling after thinking it all through and he had a8s.

SO dj if he thought i had something but wasnt that strong id expect him to just value the river.

did we opr this villain tho?

edit: what i mean is rather than deciding to turn his into a bluff i always feel like guys are checking and then once you bet they decide to try and turn their hands into a flush ;p

getem76

I was just saying you might have gotten away for less if he does some sort of snap it in kinda thing....to show how polarized you were perhaps

betrthanphil

getem76 wrote: »

I was just saying you might have gotten away for less if he does some sort of snap it in kinda thing....to show how polarized you were perhaps

By raising flop we are opening ourselves to be bluffed. Or playing a big pot with only top pair. We can keep the pot small and make it to the river for cheap. I mean how big can he bet on the turn?

Richard~

ranging is hard BvB ^^'

I'd expect him to be going for value here most of the time with two pairs, a set or 45 since if he was trying to push us off off a draw I'd expect him to barrel river rather than get stubborn. In his eyes we might have a flushdraw so checking the river for value does make sense if I'm villain but if I'm villain I'm probably not raising with less than a set or top two when you bet

the only hands I expect him to take this line with that are bluffs are Axhh and two overs and a fd cause he feels robbed when all those outs brick. A really loose player may raise you here with A9 or JJ, but that seems pretty unlikely

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

cause he feels robbed when all those outs brick

i like this explanation...