Image Exploiting Hand, Live $550
One of my hands from the $550 at Yellowhead yesterday, not sure what I think about it.
12k starting stacks, and we are about 2 hours in, blinds @ 100/200, I have about 11k.
Despite what you know about me having played locally before, my image is for sure the tightest at the table. Im legitimately card dead (not even any 78ss I can play!).
Old aggro (Im gonna say russian?) dude with about 15k limps UTG.
Competent to good mid 40s guy raises to 700. He keeps talking about how good the games were 20 years ago, etc.
I flat in the BB.
Old dude flats, pot 2200.
J9J rainbow flop.
Me and old dude check, guy bets 1100, I call and old dude folds.
Turn 3, I check again. He checks back. Pot 4400.
River 5 and I lead for 3400.
Assuming you were paying attention to the fact that I havent played more than 2 hands in the past 2 hours, what is your calling range here if you are villain?
12k starting stacks, and we are about 2 hours in, blinds @ 100/200, I have about 11k.
Despite what you know about me having played locally before, my image is for sure the tightest at the table. Im legitimately card dead (not even any 78ss I can play!).
Old aggro (Im gonna say russian?) dude with about 15k limps UTG.
Competent to good mid 40s guy raises to 700. He keeps talking about how good the games were 20 years ago, etc.
I flat in the BB.
Old dude flats, pot 2200.
J9J rainbow flop.
Me and old dude check, guy bets 1100, I call and old dude folds.
Turn 3, I check again. He checks back. Pot 4400.
River 5 and I lead for 3400.
Assuming you were paying attention to the fact that I havent played more than 2 hands in the past 2 hours, what is your calling range here if you are villain?
Comments
KJ calls, QJ probably maybe Ace 9....someone who wants to hero you off with AK maybe at best....just based on tightest at the table, I would like to think you have AJ suited or something, maybe J10 only because you started with seeing no hands at all....but what do I know not sitting with you!
As for the specific hand, I think your better off betting a lot smaller. A three quarter pot bet makes it a bluff or nuts situation. As your opponent, I would at least call with all jacks, tens plus...and with most nines...would depend on my live read.
Flop bet by guy after you check - only 1/2 the pot. Strength or feeler? I say feeler (not knowing how he's played to this point). I don't give him a J here - so AK, AQ, AT, KQ, KT. No 9. I think your call represents strength. I put you on a J - KJ, QJ, JT, J9.
Your check into the raiser on the turn - pretty common but no bet from him. Story seems the same.
Your bet on the river gives the same story - you have a J. His story so far doesn't say 3's or 5's. He has a busted straight draw or a lower pair but not 9's.
As villain, I'm only calling you with AJ, KJ, or QJ or 9's.
(btw - the most hands of yours I think I ever saw was last time in Bolton)
Tom
Villain had 99.
I'm probably folding anything less than a 9 though, unless I have a read
just cause the turn check seems ultra weak....
not saying i feel that way but given the story and im some old russian dude...and keep in mind...i pretty much am vodka....
i want to argue this because when our preflop range shrinks our river range itself is quite small and our perceieved leading range gets confident...but wetts flatted from the blinds and i feel like that range is large regardless of the image and vpip
However, when wetts defends his bb....and check-calls flop, check-check turn, and leads river for 3/4 pot...he's polarizes his range to more bluff or Jx+/boat.
The bet on the river doesn't exploit a tight image at all. If Wetts VPIP thus far was 8% or 25%, it doesn't really change how often your opponent will call in this spot.
If we have seen Wetts bluffs these spots before, or seen him value bet thinly, or most significantly seen his value bet sizing or bluffing bet sizing before....it will significantly impact the chances percentage of times he gets called/raised here.
this quote and the one you quoted of mine agree....but i dont' think we are betting that flop with air after folding for 2 hours....in a multiway pot....percieved wise?
On the flop, there's a lot more combo of hands that he defends with that aren't trips/boat...especially given that there's two jacks on the flop.
My hand is irrelevant.
Also, I thought I was bluffing on the river bet. But we can talk about value bluffing later....
I had 88 in this hand. I got called by 77.
The hand really got me thinking about what a competent villain was thinking here, and where my mistake was. I mean really, even though I won the hand, I shouldnt have. My live bet sizing leaves room for improvement. So I guess on a spectrum of bluff -> nuts, I could have half and half each way with a 3/4 river bet?
My plan was to CR the turn or bomb the river based on my nitty white dude image.
So is a value 1/2 pot type bet here more appropriate to move me to a more nutted range, or do we overbet?
An overbet on the river used to look like a bluff but I have seen the overbet for value so many times online now, I wonder which is standard any more.
Either way, I think this villain calls you, seems he can't let go of his mid pocket pair on a paired board.
People should not play hero when they think they are getting robbed in particular, not just because to see your hand, you lose more chips than you win doing things like that!
Me personally, I'd usually just be check/calling a bet on the river. I don't like the idea of turning eights into a bluff when I think they're doing pretty well against his range. If I was going to value-bet them, I'd be betting smaller (like 1/4-1/2 pot) because I don't think he's going to call off with very many weaker hands to a bigger bet.
In regards to exploiting a tight image, I think a better way to go about it would be to just c/r flop and fire turn. Even nits/tight players can throw out a random bluff but I'll give a ton more credit when they're firing multiple streets. With your line and bet sizing, it's hard for me to really think you have a super strong hand.
Fwiw, assuming effective stacks of 11k preflop, my bet sizing if I were to go the c/r, bet turn route would be to 2300 and then something between 2600-3200 on the turn into a pot of 6800. Leaves you in kind of an uncomfortable spot on the river but you can evaluate at that point whether you feel like there's any value in triple barrelling (which would be a river ship for ~40% psb) or to just give up the pot and still have 25bb to work with.