WRGPT Hand Analysis: Interesting river play
WRGPT (World Rec.Gambling.Poker Tournament), late stages, 75 players remaining. In the (virtual) money, but the serious money goes to the top 27 or so, and the monster payouts go to the top 9.
What the heck is going on in this hand? What hole cards do the players have? (If we assume they are reasonable players that is.)
http://hands.warmfuzzies.com/f/hands/f8_190.txt
BTW, that's me over there on table f1 limping along in 73rd place of 75. 8)
ScottyZ
What the heck is going on in this hand? What hole cards do the players have? (If we assume they are reasonable players that is.)
http://hands.warmfuzzies.com/f/hands/f8_190.txt
BTW, that's me over there on table f1 limping along in 73rd place of 75. 8)
ScottyZ
Comments
The only hand that I can see mike queen folding to a $1775 bet on the river in a $228000 pot is 93, for a flopped 2 pair, seriously counterfeited on the river.
But what would he be doing in there with 93 in the first place.
And really, there are precisely zero hands I would fold for $1775 in a $228000 pot, including a stone cold bluff (just in case), so I can't assume these are reasonable players. Also, if this was a total bluff, he can't *just* call the 24K turn raise.
So, a more reasonable estimation would be that mike queen has TsJs. He led out on the flop to try and get KK, QQ, JJ to fold to the ace scare card. Then he picks up an open-ender and a 4-flush on the turn, bets it, gets raised, and calls. The river is a brick (for him), he is playing the board without even having the best kicker, and so he folds to the $1775 rather than giving away any info. when his hand is (usually automatically) exposed after he calls the all-in bet.
Paul R. has a monster of some kind, at least an ace, and was slowplaying it on the flop.
If I'm right, I'm not a big fan of the way mike queen played it. TJs is a fun hand, but not heads-up, especially when you don't have position. I'd fold to the preflop raise here. I don't like the flop slowplay (just calling) by Paul R., either, because he lets hands like TsJs see a very juicy turn card.
Regards,
all_aces
ps: Do you know what they had, or is this strictly hypothetical? Either way, thanks for posting this truly truly bizarre hand.
No, I don't know what they had.
I'm not sure what hand you could fold here to for a bet less than 1% of the pot. I was thinking maybe mike queen had some hand like two suited cards in spades to the bicycle straight.
Even stranger is the actual bet. I don't think I'd risk betting my last $1775 in last position with any hand less than the nuts (in this example, QQ). With a hand even as good as AA, is it really worth trying to make that extra piddly $1775 at the risk of busting out the the tournament when there's even the (super) remote possibility that it's no good? And a decent player couldn't possibly be bluffing with such a small amount, since you've got to expect your opponent to call another $1775 for a $200,000+ pot with hands as bad as 7 or 8 high.
So, my best guess is it was QQ vs. 45s (spades) unless at least one player was being irrational, not playing attention, chip dumping, or something strange like that.
I would honestly have called $1775 with anything here, even the nut low 24 hoping for the chop-chop. Now that's a loose call! 8)
ScottyZ
http://hands.warmfuzzies.com/f/hands/f8_191.txt
ScottyZ