Thoughts on river overshove

Wetts1012

Discuss.

Full Tilt Poker Game #18264696214: $22,000 Guarantee (1r+1a) (137990136), Table 52 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:15:37 ET - 2010/02/07
Seat 1: Jeffboski (2,897)
Seat 2: LeoEleven (3,120)
Seat 3: loddar_m (2,975)
Seat 4: titantom32 (1,695)
Seat 5: Der mude Andi (2,420)
Seat 6: Wetts1012 (3,770)
Seat 7: govshark2 (4,015)
Seat 8: dcoop4506 (4,140)
Seat 9: llSayMyNamell (365)
loddar_m posts the small blind of 25
titantom32 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Wetts1012 [2d 2s]
Der mude Andi folds
Wetts1012 calls 50
govshark2 raises to 225
dcoop4506 folds
llSayMyNamell has 15 seconds left to act
llSayMyNamell folds
Jeffboski folds
LeoEleven folds
loddar_m folds
titantom32 has 15 seconds left to act
titantom32 folds
Wetts1012 calls 175
*** FLOP *** [6c Kc 2c]
Wetts1012 checks
govshark2 checks
*** TURN *** [6c Kc 2c] [Kd]
Wetts1012 bets 395
govshark2 calls 395
*** RIVER *** [6c Kc 2c Kd] [2h]
Wetts1012 has 15 seconds left to act
Wetts1012 bets 3,150, and is all in

actyper

Sure why not?

Sharantyr

First, I would ask about your and his image? You both have a stack, he just has you slightly covered. He did raise pre behind you. His check on the flop and flat on the turn to me would indicate he has something of value but without knowing more information about him I would hesitate to try and guess what he may be playing here.
Though the possibility of a flush draw is also there so what were the possibilities of him chasing that?

Your river all in is for almost 3x the pot size so I am guessing you have him on a hand he is calling with?

Wetts1012

Sharantyr wrote: »

First, I would ask about your and his image? You both have a stack, he just has you slightly covered. He did raise pre behind you. His check on the flop and flat on the turn to me would indicate he has something of value but without knowing more information about him I would hesitate to try and guess what he may be playing here.
Though the possibility of a flush draw is also there so what were the possibilities of him chasing that?

Your river all in is for almost 3x the pot size so I am guessing you have him on a hand he is calling with?

WAT.

I guess my thinking was only a king calls anything here.

Sharantyr

I would be hoping he had a K, and that was my first thought ofcourse. But just thinking about it more, if he thought he was slowplaying you with a K and hit his boat there, somehow I would think all the chips are going in regardless.

If there is a chance he was being a goober and chasing say suited connectors that he thought were pretty you are either going to win the same pot as you would with that shove or win the same pot as you would with a bet...unless for some reason he thinks he can make you fold. Perhaps I am jaded but I see it so often that I can't help but think that.

Unknown

actyper wrote: »

Sure why not?

he needs a king to call, if he doesn't have it hes folding. maybe hell call with AA too. its possible hed call with a flush but likely hed lay down if hes any good. i think most made hands, will call a value bet and any king will reraise so i think that's a better play. give a chance for him to bluff lesser hands. of course its possible through previous play to put him on a king so if your sure then thats the better play. im prob value betting though, something that he thinks i could lay down to a shove. there is also the possiblity of KK which i don't think you have to worry about in the long term of course.

GTA Poker

I prefer a weak lead at the flop...or do I just suck at MTTs?

compuease

Well as played to the river, I bet whatever I think he will call without a K. That way you get something if he has AA or a flush perhaps. If he has a K he is re-raising and you get to push then. Pushing first means you likely only get a call with a K. Best of both worlds IMO... lol... I am not concerned about KK... ever..

I also like a weak lead at the flop as if you have a so so K.

waltsfriend

compuease wrote: »

Well as played to the river, I bet whatever I think he will call without a K. That way you get something if he has AA or a flush perhaps. If he has a K he is re-raising and you get to push then. Pushing first means you likely only get a call with a K. Best of both worlds IMO... lol... I am not concerned about KK... ever..

I also like a weak lead at the flop as if you have a so so K.

I disagree with this idea. This is a chance to double up on the river if he has a king, or make an extra 300 or so chips if he has a flush. I would much rather take the chance he has a king, and give up the few extra chips you might get with a smaller value bet. And, unless he has a bigger full house, it is unlikely he will raise with just a king. The overshove looks like a bully tactic to steal a chopped pot. I think this is especially effective because it is a rebuy tournament. The only thing to worry about is if he thinks you are shoving with a bigger full house. But I think it is worth the chance.

Unknown

waltsfriend wrote: »

I disagree with this idea. This is a chance to double up on the river if he has a king, or make an extra 300 or so chips if he has a flush. I would much rather take the chance he has a king, and give up the few extra chips you might get with a smaller value bet. And, unless he has a bigger full house, it is unlikely he will raise with just a king. The overshove looks like a bully tactic to steal a chopped pot. I think this is especially effective because it is a rebuy tournament. The only thing to worry about is if he thinks you are shoving with a bigger full house. But I think it is worth the chance.

there is no bigger full house, hes more likely to reraise with a king than to call a shove with a flush. no one is thinking k6. seeing its a rebuy now i can see the argument but i would value bet.

compuease

waltsfriend wrote: »

I disagree with this idea. This is a chance to double up on the river if he has a king, or make an extra 300 or so chips if he has a flush. I would much rather take the chance he has a king, and give up the few extra chips you might get with a smaller value bet. And, unless he has a bigger full house, it is unlikely he will raise with just a king. The overshove looks like a bully tactic to steal a chopped pot. I think this is especially effective because it is a rebuy tournament. The only thing to worry about is if he thinks you are shoving with a bigger full house. But I think it is worth the chance.

Uhhh, any K is the only reasonable full house...... Please re-read. I do agree that he calls an all in shove with any K. Trick is with a value bet you get your double up if he has a K and at least some chips if he has a decent hand. OP is unlikely to consider the quads...

Kristy

Money thrown away from most of the sensible pf raising range. Only a king or a hero pays.

My guess: aa with a clubs?

actyper

Pretty sure he has QQ/JJ without any clubs here, anything better he played like ass.

I think he hero calls an allin looking bluff more often than a value bet. If I were bluffing, then I would make a value looking bet on this board.

Wetts1012

idk I thought I'd try something new.

My thoughts were that a value bet might net me a couple hundred chips, but I stack him 100% of the time that he has a king. He could also hero something bizarre if he thinks Im a spaz.

btw this is not a rebuy. It is a 1r, 1a and almost everyone insta adds on. If I bust him hes out.

Edit: No idea what he had cuz my brilliant play resulted in a fold.

T8urmoney

Interesting spot....I think on this one, you have to go with your read on the other player. (ie. is he likely to hero call with Q's or such)

If he has a king, all the chips are likely getting in no matter how it's done......the trick is to get as much value over other hands as possible.

If you set the value bet @ $700 (a little less than half the pot), and he calls any non-king made hand I would say 50% of the time.....giving you an average profit of $350 on the river.

If you shove $3150, and he calls any non-king hand say 15% of the time....giving you an average profit of $472.50.

I think a shove has the best value.....of course my calling percentages may be off, this is where your read comes in.

syphilaids

don't mind the shove, but its player dependant.

If you think he'll hero call then go for it. If eh has a K then it doesn't matter what you do the money is going in.

If not, then a C/R is better as you MIGHT get an extra bet from TT, JJ, QQ, AA if he's an idiot.

moose

Wetts1012 wrote: »

Edit: No idea what he had cuz my brilliant play resulted in a fold.

Yeah you do. He didn't have a king.

I think I like compuease's line on this.

Well as played to the river, I bet whatever I think he will call without a K. That way you get something if he has AA or a flush perhaps. If he has a K he is re-raising and you get to push then. Pushing first means you likely only get a call with a K. Best of both worlds IMO... lol... I am not concerned about KK... ever..

jdAA88

I think it should be mentioned that govshark2 is one of the best mtt pros out there, not your avg tourney donk.

Knowing this I'd probably get 800ish on the river.

Unknown

T8urmoney wrote: »

If you set the value bet @ $700 (a little less than half the pot), and he calls any non-king made hand I would say 50% of the time.....giving you an average profit of $350 on the river.

If you shove $3150, and he calls any non-king hand say 15% of the time....giving you an average profit of $472.50.

I think a shove has the best value.....of course my calling percentages may be off, this is where your read comes in.

you really don't have to change these numbers much to sway the scale the other way i don't think.

Wanita1

From what someone else said about govshark2 not being a donk and actually playing well, I think that he likely had a very good hand and would have probably called a low value bet if you gave him odds to call. You may have been able to pick up a few extra chips. For him to call the turn bet he had to have had something good if he is a disciplined player. Maybe QQ, JJ.

A player with amazing self discipline may have even had a better FH such 6's over K's and thought you had the nuts with the shove. If that is the case then that shove saved you many chips. I have seen one hand played live where a player had such amazing self control that he actually folded a set of Kings. I believe it was blind on blind. There were bets at the flop and the turn. He had K8 and bet the river. The other guy had K6. The K6 hit the Full House and raised him all in but the guy in the end did not call the bet. It was amazing that he folded. The guy with the FH showed him only the 6 so it made him second guess the fold but in the end he would have seen that he made an amazing play as it was televised.