The 77 spot
So we are sitting 6/13 in the early $163 on FTP. First is 54K. 6th is 10K. 13th is 1.5K.
Not much history with villain. OPR shows to be a winning reg.
Villain is 33/26 over ~40 hands.
This was posted elsewhere and got a significant response in one direction. I want to gauge the pulse of this forum in regards to where the strategy level sits here.
Whats your play, and why......
Full Tilt Poker $150,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1500 - 6 players
BTN: t325598 M = 12.06
Hero (SB): t334113 M = 12.37
BB: t324835 M = 12.03
UTG: t830186 M = 30.75
MP: t713747 M = 26.44
CO: t163823 M = 6.07
Pre Flop: (t27000) Hero is SB with 7
7
1 fold, MP raises to t36000, CO requests TIME, 2 folds, Hero ....
Not much history with villain. OPR shows to be a winning reg.
Villain is 33/26 over ~40 hands.
This was posted elsewhere and got a significant response in one direction. I want to gauge the pulse of this forum in regards to where the strategy level sits here.
Whats your play, and why......
Full Tilt Poker $150,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t6000/t12000 Blinds + t1500 - 6 players
BTN: t325598 M = 12.06
Hero (SB): t334113 M = 12.37
BB: t324835 M = 12.03
UTG: t830186 M = 30.75
MP: t713747 M = 26.44
CO: t163823 M = 6.07
Pre Flop: (t27000) Hero is SB with 7
71 fold, MP raises to t36000, CO requests TIME, 2 folds, Hero ....
Comments
I like to have 25x to 30x to set mine.
Here we have about 300,000 back and need to make a 30,000 call so we are not getting as much as I'd like.
While I tend to agree, are we gonna wait for aces all night? there are 13 left..half of whom are gonna have their sphincters puckered...and the other half willing to play..
It costs us 2 laps to flat here, are we gonna see another decent hand in the next 12?
What is our image? is the other factor of course...if we are in the puckered sphincter cat. at this stage of the game, we could probably shove and take it now...but, this probably our last chance to play poker, and last chance at his stack without a race..
I am presuming Wetts hasn't been crazy tight here, and a flat call will put big stack on edge...
then again...I could be out to lunch...I am curious the "proper" line here..
I like to have 20x as well, but 8x and you have the right odds
That's only if you assume he'll double you up if you hit... Now if he also has another caller, then I would take the odds... In this situation I re-raise or fold...
Which, to my thinking, is exactly why we should be doing it..he won't even come close to putting us on a med pair..he will wonder wtf we could flat call with other than a trap...he needs to hit the flop hard to call a shove by us.
BB is the one that would worry me the most for a possible reraise.
Unless we're being leveled I think I'd have to fold, we're not getting the odds to setmine. I'd be surprised if we have fold equity here since the reg is never raising light, so we're hoping for a flip if we shove
So we are playing shove or fold imo. So based on all the information you have, shove or fold?
If BB was the big stack at the table I'd be more willing to shove. Really curious to hear what others think about this spot
It's funny, I think I disagree with every single thing you just said ^^'
Out of position, playing this hand is kind of tough. You really need to hit the flop hard or you are likely folding to any bet if any over cards come. If you hit your set, you have a good chance of doubling up and making it to the final table (and cashing). Short handed 77 is a decent hand so I would likely call and see a flop. I still have plenty of chips if I miss the flop but at this late stage in the tournament, taking a chance to double up is likely worth it. No guts, no glory.
btw, how many total chips in play? not sure if many short stacks at the other table.
What do you feel your table image is?
Are you concerned about the BB at all?
Are you willing to flip?
If your image is TAGish and you are not worried about the BB, then ship it.
Villain would be playing a pot for almost 1/2 his stack.
You take away his odds to call with overs as he would be calling 290k into a 390k pot (if I did my math right)
As stated I think the worst possible play here is flatting. It is fold or shove.
So, I shove:
1) Villain is opening 26% of his range, and probably calling 8-10% of that if I ship. I figured theres alot of equity in shoving given that hes only calling 1/3 of his opening range. I want a fold, and this accomplishes that. If I get called, I flip for a top 2 stack in alot of cases.
2) I have a perfect reship stack (as Richard stated). If villain has some kind of sick metagame where he took this into account, so be it - hes better than me if thats the case.
3) Im playing standard 18/15 nittish. I think my image helps the situation.
4) I dont hate a fold here. I do think that if we dont play back when we are playing basically 20BB poker we are gonna get runover.
So I shipped, and prayed, and lost a flip to AQ. Again, I think I basically ran into the best of his opening range. That said, for some reason I dont feel too bad about it. I think I made the best possible play in this situation.
Was it a 10K-20K flip? Probably. sigh.
Just looked at your post and I can't agree with you about your opponents chance of reshipping. 20+bbs is still ballsy to reship light final table bubble. I'm opening any 2 there if i'm mp.
Edit: Then again maybe we shouldn't assume villain is as good as you ^^'
flatting and leading a dry flop is more gross
I'd end up folding just because I'm really aggressive..I think it narrows his range significantly, but I think your justification for shoving in your situation is perfect.
(He usually has something good v. me and I'm not super-comfortable with 77 v. this tightened range.)
I would open very wide in this spot. There is alot of metagame in this post and my feel at the time is this isnt the case. There are 1700+ people in this tournament, and alot from the satellite structure.
If we are in the 100Rebuy with the 250 best players around I absolutely agree with you.
alright then, if we're not giving villain that much credit I'd reship all day. It'd probably be a crying reship but he's folding out a lot in this spot if he's not adapting making it the perfect spot to push and try to win some chips
We flat...flop comes...we hit our set, sweet... We shove a dry flop, he can't call without hitting...if he has hit...no different than if we got it in preflop....we are giving him two opportunities to fold...ugly flop...we can let go and still be in fine shape.
UL Wetts, but very nice run!
Not at all. Just posting for discussion. I play thishand the same way again.
Personally, the reason I dont like this is it widens his calling range. I would prefer a fold.
If he is opening K10, 79ss, A8, etc. He is calling a shove if he makes any connection. Ex K9 on a 943 board or even K9 on a J93 board.
Shoving pre his calling range is much narrower. And this is a hand I dont want action with!
would players be opening with these cards at this stage of a tournament with likely their largest payday within site? Personally I like the fold over the shove.
lol..you don't seem to realize that you went from "Set mining" to "I heart my 77" by leading.
if you :h: your 77 why are you letting him see a flop in position for free with gtd. overcards? And worse still, if you insist on going to a flop with your "Super Sexy Seven Seven" ...Why aren't you maximizing the amount of chips in the pot by say..C/Ring his c-bet?
The answer is that your 77 isn't that sexy. Maybe you could argue with aces or kings for a pf call, but 77 is illogical.