AK sooooooooted....tough spot?
$100 local live MTT, 106 entries, 11 pay.......starting 10K stacks, currently 22 players left (avg stack = 46K)...blinds 1500 / 3000 (no antes)
8 players seated....relevant players noted below
UTG + 1 = 12K Older ABC guy
MP = 19K TAG'ish
CO = 31K Spewy table donk
BB (me) = 45K Best Player In the Field
UTG + 1 Jams all-in (my impression will be a very wide range...any PP, Ax, QK)
MP re-shoves (Has to have a hand here....1010+AQ+)
CO hums and haws, and calls (likely Ax or any 88-, not 88+ as I think he'd jam)
BB: wtf do you do here?
8 players seated....relevant players noted below
UTG + 1 = 12K Older ABC guy
MP = 19K TAG'ish
CO = 31K Spewy table donk
BB (me) = 45K Best Player In the Field
UTG + 1 Jams all-in (my impression will be a very wide range...any PP, Ax, QK)
MP re-shoves (Has to have a hand here....1010+AQ+)
CO hums and haws, and calls (likely Ax or any 88-, not 88+ as I think he'd jam)
BB: wtf do you do here?
Comments
Gotta love the pot odds, not to mention, being big stack, even If you take a hit, there will be 2 others eliminated and you are still in the tourney, in ok position. If you hit, you just added LOTS of life to your stack.
I like that position.
what happened.
You have a skill advantage.
Fold and pretend it was 2-7.
Worse case, donk wins hand, becomes chip leader, but would risk his larger stack against mine in a better spot. Best case, ABC player doubles up through donk. Only real threat I see is if MP tag wins.
Reluctantly, fold.
This was my first thought.....changed my mind though, simply because of uber donk being in the hand.
My thinking was that if i jam, uber donk calls 100% of the time, and as long as I beat him, I lose at most 4K on top of my BB by winning the side pot. I can can take down the main, It will give me a dominant stack going forward in the tourney.
Remember, it looks like I have alot of chips compared to the players in the hand, but in reality, I was just over average, and with 23 players left, still aways from the money.
As I only had 15BB's, I figured this was a safe spot to gamboool....mainly because I was pretty sure I had uber donks range crushed.
Had the CO not been in the hand, I believe I would fold there, as I don't like my hand against the other two.
Read my post below about donk call....I was as sure as I could be on any read. Would it have surprised me if he had AA....no.....but, I thought 95% I have him crushed (he would jam a pair here most of the time)
AK, suited no less, is getting shoved by me, no matter what else is happening around me.
If a better (rockets) or other sub par hand takes it down, then good for them, thats gambling. Thats poker.
please tell me you played it t8?
At first my immediate thinking was fold, but after your reasoning here, it seems like a call isn't bad.
I'll post the results later, but, yes I did play it.....but, if you can't fold AK preflop, you need alot of work on your game.
The donk humming and hawing...is probably him deciding how good his J9 really is..and after all...it is soooted...so he better go for it..but, again..he has two live..we likely only have one...
I just don't feel good here.
Fold. Move on. Keep those hard earned chips for a better spot. That is what you should have done.
Me. I shove. Hey, the "resident pro" said it was the right play, didn't she?
The reliability on your read of the CO is the key ... and I'd trust it to be right. I say take the shot and shove. The side pot is big enough to make the riskier portion of the gamble worth going for.
There are way too many scenarios where none of them have AA or KK and you are holding two overcards to them all (with likely domination on at least one of them), getting big pot odds and an opportunity at a huge chip stack going down the stretch.
Even if he's TAG, I think you're still probably dominating the (4M) MP player nearly as many times as he's dominating you (with the largest % of possibilities being coin flips to underpairs or chops with another AK). Knowing how desperate UTG+1 was, and with it being only an 8-player table, it's possible that AJ may be in MP's range as well.
While obviously not doubting your skill advantage, with an average-sized 10m stack, I'd maybe assign a slightly lower value to it than others will (unless you think a number at the table were so poor/passive enough as to allow themselves to be blinded down to nothing).
Take the big two or all three stacks out and you're virtually guaranteed to be in the money with a great shot at a top finish. Even if you lose the hand to all three of them, you're hurt bad but not dead.
...and I've folded AK and QQ at similar stakes and in somewhat similar situations, so inability to fold is not an issue with me.
Good question.
Lets ignore the fact that its 16K to see a 55K pot. This is more of a question for the C/O.
You know he's an idiot, so you know he's going to feed someone his chips, or he'll hit a miracle and take it down. You NEED to take his chips before some pro gets it! You have AKs which KILLS a donk-spew range. Take the chips away from this fish, you'll have him crushed so often.
if he calls 100% when you shove, you'll often win 12K from him. If you lose the main, you'll lose a net of 4K when you beat the fish.
So think of it this way. You'll lose just over 1bb to take out 2 additional people, both players are not bad and who you'd like to see gone, potentially add 55K to your stack, AND have a solid chance of harpooning the tuna.
On top of it all I went through a sim on pokerstove. Against their ranges, (which by the way i think you made teh TAG guy too tight and DONK too narrow IMO so i put these ranges in, you had a read and I didn't but still) you're over 32% chance to win in a 4 way pot
Everything is favourable for you, call and pray to the poker gods you hit/ dont get sucked out!
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
250,153,254,735 games 818.247 secs 305,718,511 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.753% 30.49% 02.26% 76281121564 5652543623.08 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 18.897% 18.14% 00.76% 45377501325 1893062507.25 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 28.069% 26.28% 01.79% 65730739045 4483604611.92 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 20.281% 19.20% 01.08% 48024263231 2710418828.75 { 44+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
UTG+1 = A7/55
MP = AK
CO = 88
BB = AK (obviously)
CO holds up.
Here's how it broke down:
UTG+1= 99
MP = KK
CO = A10os
BB = AKsoooooted
Flop was a disaster......4 5 10 rainbow (none of my suit of course), turn A, river 5.
Spew monkey hits big, and takes in massive pot.
we talked about all nince sng players going all to you on the bb with Aces, and how its more ev to fold, i don't know if exactly works here but i assume that its a fold from that...i guess you could suggest someone has a monster, someone has a decent ace, and someone has a pp....or am i just being stupid after knowing the hand.
And against KK and 99 you're going to win 30% of the time, so you have better then perfect odds to do it.
still 30% with a dead ace? seems high..
I think the key to this, is the donk being in the hand. If the donk folded.....I'm pretty sure I would have as well, as I didn't have a break even proposition built in.
It's you vs spewy donk for a 12 x 2 = 24K side pot OR maybe he folds to your shove. And you're probably going to have 60+% equity vs him.
Otherwise you're calling another 16K to play for 3K + 19K + 19K + 12K (53K).
That is some sick odds and if they all have pairs like 66 ABC vs TT Tag vs 88 Spew, you're in a pretty sick spot with a lot of equity. The structure looks quick, I'm getting my chips in here.
Sure AK is foldable, but g'dam we're playing 13BB effective stacks.
Yeah thats if donk wasn't in.
2 outter is about 18% I believe.