Final table situation

Unknown

Final table in a $50 NL tournament on Stars. 8 left, I'm 6th in chips.

PokerStars Game #891660901: Tournament #3535013, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (2000/4000) - 2004/11/25 - 01:34:17 (ET)
Table '3535013 12' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: jeremyunc (135106 in chips)
Seat 3: Radashack (62434 in chips)
Seat 4: bschollh (60388 in chips)
Seat 5: hdtv (41408 in chips)
Seat 6: cupcake2004 (37289 in chips)
Seat 7: IronWood (64202 in chips)
Seat 8: Deep_Pocket (14031 in chips)
Seat 9: all aces (41142 in chips)
jeremyunc: posts the ante 200
Radashack: posts the ante 200
bschollh: posts the ante 200
hdtv: posts the ante 200
cupcake2004: posts the ante 200
IronWood: posts the ante 200
Deep_Pocket: posts the ante 200
all aces: posts the ante 200
all aces: posts small blind 2000
jeremyunc: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [9h 9s]
Radashack: raises 8000 to 12000
bschollh: calls 12000
hdtv: folds
cupcake2004: folds
IronWood: folds
Deep_Pocket: folds
all aces: ?

Radashack is a very loose preflop raiser, and I'd been playing with him for a couple of hours and seriously having my way with him while he had his way with everybody else. I am almost certain he'll fold if I move in. The other player was new to me. Call, fold, or raise?

Thanks,
all_aces

SocietyRed

That late in the tourny my thinking is if its good enough to call with its good enough to raise ( cant recall where I got that from). Being almost last in chips and he has you covered this is a good spot for a raise. Question is how much. if you raise 24k you're pretty much pot commited so going all in is a good option here. I would probably fold because chances are he's holding two over cards. Most likely an A/x hand and I dont know if I want my tourny life on the line with a pair of nines. I would fold and hope for a better hand since you just payed the blinds.

Red

ScottyZ

I'm assuming that Radashack is also new to bschollh based on the fact that the latter is new to you.

Fold. A typical player at the final table of a large(ish) buy-in tourney who cold calls an UTG raiser when the chips are still somewhat deep is showing a lot of strength. It's hard to imagine the caller being a dog to 99.

ScottyZ

Unknown

I'm assuming that Radashack is also new to bschollh based on the fact that the latter is new to you.

You're too smart for your own good, Scotty.

This is a HUGELY IMPORTANT point that I failed to take into consideration. Because bschollh didn't KNOW that Radashack was a loose pre-flop raiser, he is giving Rada credit for an actual hand, and then calling the raise anyways, which means that he himself has an actual hand.

Results to follow tomorrow.

stpboy

Perhaps I'm the only one that calls this hand to see the flop and gets away from it afterwards if it's not 99 friendly. Personally I like 99 for it's trap value. I believe with 29K in chips you can still make a few aggressive plays to finish in the top 3. If you call here and hit a 9, you have two opponents (including an aggressive one that you know about) that you can squeeze some chips out of.

I also think that the fact that you know nothing about the other opponent doesn't necessarily say that he is calling with a premium hand. He could be equally loose/aggressive. Of course, like you have pointed out, the odds are better that he is not.

This may be a more risky play then folding or raising but offers a lot of value if the flop is kind to you. Let's gamble a little.

stp

ComaU

Online poker offers something that a B+M tourney does not and that is the fact that you can watch the other tables before the final. Any time ive made it to the final table of an online tournament I have opened all of the 3 last tables and have watched AS MUCH as possible of the other two.

It is possible that bschollh knows that he is facing a loose preflop raiser and is trying to trap or he doesnt know which is a worse situation for you because he DOES have a hand then. If he was trying to re-steal I would think that he would have moved in.

I think the question is do you want to call 10k in chips to try and bust them both?

as for the answer...... If it was a weaker player we were talking about I would say gamble and try to flop a set (I dont think you hand is good) and trap the person who I think is trapping plus pick up some chips form the loosey.

Since you are a very strong tournament player from what ive heard and read in your posts and others I would say that you can find a lot better situations in which you could improve you stack without as much risk.

Jeremy

Iron

I might actually call here like stpboy. If you hit the 9 you have a very good shot of more than doubling up, which will give you a real shot at the top spots. If no 9 comes you get away from the hand with 7 BB's left... just enough to still have some fold equity on the next few hands if you push all in preflop.

I wouldn't reraise. I would either call and see if the 9 flops, or fold.

magithighs

I was in a very similar situation last night. I'm at the final table of a stars tourney ($33 rebuy) for an entry to their WPT tourney in Atlantis. I'm second last at the final table with approximately T30K and blinds are 1/2K. There are 8 players, top spot gets the trip, 2-6 gets $600 and 7 gets $500.

In the SB I see 99. The small stack/loose raiser UTG goes all in for 20K. A solid player smooth calls from the button.

I put the solid player on Kings or Aces, as I think he'd try to protect QQ-JJ or AK and go all-in to get me and the blind out, and get it heads up against loose desparate guy.

Now, I'm thinking I should call as I can really drive down the odds of the small-stack by calling, and making it more likely I'd be in the money. If he wins the pot, I'm the target! I want to push all-in, but I don't. I fold.

@#$.

As a small stack, I think I should have rolled the dice and given myself a better chance at being in the money, and also getting a stack I could work with. Sometimes I think it is better to go in with the worst of it.

I don't know the payout scheme for your tournament, but it may have been worth going all-in as a small stack. Worst case, you're a 4 to 1 dog. I think the payout would warrant a 4 to 1 situation. Winning that pot would put you in second spot, and likely a top three finish. Not playing that pot would get you into 4-5 spot. Averaging the probabilities, I think you're getting more than four times the money when you are a 4 to 1 dog and win the pot. This is worst case. Well, the worst, worst case is that you're up against aces and kings -- but we can't look for monsters under the bed!

This advice may be (well it is!) clouded by the fact that I should have rolled the dice last night!

Chugs

The smooth call, looks like a move of immense strength to me. It really really looks like a move designed to invite more people into the action. I'm only willing to credit him at this point with three possible hands AA, KK, AK ... the fact is he may have less than that but i'm not willing to guess at this point.

The other thing is that for Radashack to be raising UTG i got to give him credit for something at least two cards in the paint.

Calling here, with the chip leader also still left to act, leaves you in a situation where you honestly can only proceed with this hand, with a 9 hitting.

Fold it and bitch and moan when a '9' falls on the flop.

ScottyZ

I don't think the implied odds are likely to be sufficient to attempt to spike a set in terms of calling being a +EV play. This doesn't necessarily make calling the wrong thing to do however.

If you manage to get both players all-in when you flop a 9 and win the hand 100% of the time, the implied odds work out to be 7 to 1. Getting one opponent all-in would give you 4.5 to 1. Both players folding post-flop gives you implied odds equal to the pot odds, that is, 2.1 to 1 on your 12K. The implied odds for each scenario are lower if you do not assume you win 100% of the hands when you flop a set or better.

Since flopping a set or better is 7.5 to 1 against, calling seems to be a -EV play. The implied odds are insufficient even when restricted to the best case of getting the two opponents all-in.

So, the real question is: Are you at a point in the tournament where you are willing to make a -EV play, trading off some EV for the prospect of a large stack size increase?

It's not so obvious to me that the standard line of thinking (i.e. "reject all -EV plays unless your stack is in dire straits" which is a special case of "a good player can pick a better spot") necessarily applies here.

A good tournament player can make good use of his/her chips. So is it more important to preserve or build chips in this case?

(Again, the general theory suggests that chip preservation is often more important, but does this situation depart from the general theory?)

ScottyZ

P.S. I still like folding myself. You seem to have good control over a loose pre-flop raiser at your table. Why not wait for a situation in the next couple of orbits where you can tangle with him/her directly with no other enemies in?

Irah

I was watching that final table last night, good job aces, unfortunate about the AQ Vs. Q 10 thing, that table was crazy though. There was an all in pre flop every hand. Not much you could do.

Good job though!

Iron

Thanks for the analysis, Scotty. I'm still digesting and thinking it over. I didn't fully consider that the implied odds are limited in this situation by only having another 29K to bet if a 9 comes on the flop.

Unknown

Thanks Irah. Yeah, losing with AQ to QT for his 18K all-in really really (really) sucked.

As for all of the replies, great stuff as usual. Personally, the idea of calling 10K to try and flop one of the 2 nines left in the deck is out of the question. It was move in or fold for me, and I moved in. Radashack folded, as expected, and bschollh called with pocket tens. No help for me, and I was out of the tournament.

I looked at it as an opportunity to get myself into contention for 1st place. Because I was raising another 30K or so, there was also the possibility that BOTH players would fold. Unfortunately, I was blinded by the fact that I knew one of the players had junk, but I didn't take my quick analysis any further than that (ie: looking at the hand from bschollh's perspective).

I should have folded. BUT wouldn't it have been OHHHH SOOOO SWEEEET if I'd won that hand.

Regards,
all_aces