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What are the chances.....

***** Hand History for Game 8575015710 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $9 USD Buy-in Trny: 48307982 Level: 6 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, November 03, 12:15:14 PST 2009
Table $5K Gtd (1784568) Table #5 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 9: Br_Elec ( 6,744 )
Seat 7: POSP68 ( 7,016 )
Seat 2: Wolle92 ( 21,735 )
Seat 5: andalf01 ( 2,394 )
Seat 10: angela67222 ( 4,862 )
Seat 6: HERO ( 12,260 )
Seat 4: jimmytedesch ( 4,260 )
Seat 8: klois ( 8,095 )
Seat 3: paolopirlo ( 7,915 )
Trny: 48307982 Level: 7
Blinds(300/600)
** Dealing down cards **
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kc Ks ]
HERO raises [1,500]
POSP68 did not respond in time
POSP68 folds
klois folds
fischchen__ has joined the table.
Player fischchen__ has been moved from table 27 to this table
Br_Elec did not respond in time
Br_Elec folds
angela67222 folds
Wolle92 folds
paolopirlo raises [2,400]
jimmytedesch folds
andalf01 is all-In [1,794]
HERO is all-In [10,760]
paolopirlo is all-In [5,515]
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, Qh, 5h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
paolopirlo shows [ Ah, Ac ]three of a kind, Aces.
andalf01 shows [ Kd, 9s ]high card Ace.
HERO shows [ Kc, Ks ]a pair of Kings.
HERO wins 4,345 chips from the side pot 2 with a pair of Kings.
paolopirlo wins 11,042 chips from the side pot 1 with three of a kind, Aces.
paolopirlo wins 7,482 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, Aces.
Player andalf01 finished in 253.


I had the villian on anything he was making some poor plays and my weak flop bet could of meant anything to him. The table seemed likely to lay down so I was looking for a caller. I know I could have laid it down to the re raise (or call) , not sure I would but my question is on a standard 10 person table, im utg, what are the chances with 9 hands to go and I have kings....someone has AA.

Comments

  • darbday wrote: »
    ***** Hand History for Game 8575015710 *****
    NL Texas Hold'em $9 USD Buy-in Trny: 48307982 Level: 6 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, November 03, 12:15:14 PST 2009
    Table $5K Gtd (1784568) Table #5 (Real Money)
    Seat 3 is the button
    Total number of players : 9
    Seat 9: Br_Elec ( 6,744 )
    Seat 7: POSP68 ( 7,016 )
    Seat 2: Wolle92 ( 21,735 )
    Seat 5: andalf01 ( 2,394 )
    Seat 10: angela67222 ( 4,862 )
    Seat 6: HERO ( 12,260 )
    Seat 4: jimmytedesch ( 4,260 )
    Seat 8: klois ( 8,095 )
    Seat 3: paolopirlo ( 7,915 )
    Trny: 48307982 Level: 7
    Blinds(300/600)
    ** Dealing down cards **
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to HERO [ Kc Ks ]
    HERO raises [1,500]
    POSP68 did not respond in time
    POSP68 folds
    klois folds
    fischchen__ has joined the table.
    Player fischchen__ has been moved from table 27 to this table
    Br_Elec did not respond in time
    Br_Elec folds
    angela67222 folds
    Wolle92 folds
    paolopirlo raises [2,400]
    jimmytedesch folds
    andalf01 is all-In [1,794]
    HERO is all-In [10,760]
    paolopirlo is all-In [5,515]
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ As, Qh, 5h ]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
    ** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
    paolopirlo shows [ Ah, Ac ]three of a kind, Aces.
    andalf01 shows [ Kd, 9s ]high card Ace.
    HERO shows [ Kc, Ks ]a pair of Kings.
    HERO wins 4,345 chips from the side pot 2 with a pair of Kings.
    paolopirlo wins 11,042 chips from the side pot 1 with three of a kind, Aces.
    paolopirlo wins 7,482 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, Aces.
    Player andalf01 finished in 253.


    I had the villian on anything he was making some poor plays and my weak flop bet could of meant anything to him. The table seemed likely to lay down so I was looking for a caller. I know I could have laid it down to the re raise (or call) , not sure I would but my question is on a standard 10 person table, im utg, what are the chances with 9 hands to go and I have kings....someone has AA.

    about 1 in 25.
  • about 1 in 2.5.

    Tourney is on Stars; fyp :)
  • The real question is how did you find that number and can something like poker stove tell me these answers? And another real quesiton is what if im utg +1?
  • These things happen. It's pretty rare, but unfortunately you can't do much in this situation as even if you reraised him to try and get info you are committed. Look at it as variance and move on.
  • It happens more than you'd think....


    I've seen AA vs. KK vs QQ or some other big three pocket pair combo dozens of times. Just last week I saw AA vs KK vs. 99 vs. 22 (the 22 folded after the third raise).

    Mark
  • DrTyore wrote: »
    It happens more than you'd think....


    I've seen AA vs. KK vs QQ or some other big three pocket pair combo dozens of times. Just last week I saw AA vs KK vs. 99 vs. 22 (the 22 folded after the third raise).

    Mark

    Such a weak player ;)
  • darbday wrote: »
    The real question is how did you find that number and can something like poker stove tell me these answers? And another real quesiton is what if im utg +1?

    If you hold KK, then the chance of an opponent having AA is:

    = n * 6/1225 - C(n,2) * 6/1225 * 1/1128
    where n is the number of opponents

    so for n=9 you will run into aces ~4.38862% of the time!
  • DrTyore wrote: »
    It happens more than you'd think....


    I've seen AA vs. KK vs QQ or some other big three pocket pair combo dozens of times. Just last week I saw AA vs KK vs. 99 vs. 22 (the 22 folded after the third raise).

    Mark

    Worked out for me in the end though, didn't it ;)

    Seriously, I did not see Greg's raise. Allen's raise I thought was the first raise and it put me all in, but when Kris cold called behind me, I knew I was drawing to two outs.

    When that 9 hit the river, it was sooooo sweet.
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