ranges to push or call when facing an overbet with players left to act?
here's a hand, late into a session at a 'home' game. the table is typically loose but not too aggressive or crazy because 'el burro loco' didn't show up. generally, most 'big' pots have been won with 'big' hands with the occasional bluff and hero call thrown in.
i have had an incredible run of cards and built my stack up to around 300BBs. i have played with most of these guys many times before. my image this night is looser than usual since we have been playing mostly shorthanded and more aggressive than usual since i have been run over by the deck but i've only shown the hands when required. most other stacks are 150BBs or less. the villain in this hand is down to about 55BBs. he is what i would classify as a typical player, not too aggressive or passive, tending to raise with decent or strong hands, not much bluffing, at least that i have noticed.
villain raises from UTG or UTG+1. the raise is 3.5BBs, uncharacteristically small for the game. what is your interpretation of this type of move from this type of player in this position? what is your first cut at his range here?
he gets 5 callers, including the blinds and me in MP. this is pretty much in line with what i would expect from this game. the range of hands here is huge - any pair, any ace, suited cards, connectors - you get the picture. if the pot gets big, you know someone has something approaching the nuts.
the flop comes down AJT with the JT being suited. checked to the villain, he immediately pushes about 52BBs into a 21BBs pot. what kind of range do you put him on now?
the action is on you with 4 loose players left to act behind you. what ranges do you push or call with? a raise should pot commit any of the others. (to get technical - a call should commit any thinking player but i digress) you are getting 7 to 5 to call here. if you call, you are giving players behind about 2.5 to 1 on their immediate calls or maybe 4.5 to 1 implied odds if they hit. if you push the first player is getting about 1.5 to 1 on his call.
what is your thought process in analyzing the possible actions? if you call, what is the plan if someone behind smooth calls? what if someone behind pushes?
all comments appreciated. i will post mine later.
i have had an incredible run of cards and built my stack up to around 300BBs. i have played with most of these guys many times before. my image this night is looser than usual since we have been playing mostly shorthanded and more aggressive than usual since i have been run over by the deck but i've only shown the hands when required. most other stacks are 150BBs or less. the villain in this hand is down to about 55BBs. he is what i would classify as a typical player, not too aggressive or passive, tending to raise with decent or strong hands, not much bluffing, at least that i have noticed.
villain raises from UTG or UTG+1. the raise is 3.5BBs, uncharacteristically small for the game. what is your interpretation of this type of move from this type of player in this position? what is your first cut at his range here?
he gets 5 callers, including the blinds and me in MP. this is pretty much in line with what i would expect from this game. the range of hands here is huge - any pair, any ace, suited cards, connectors - you get the picture. if the pot gets big, you know someone has something approaching the nuts.
the flop comes down AJT with the JT being suited. checked to the villain, he immediately pushes about 52BBs into a 21BBs pot. what kind of range do you put him on now?
the action is on you with 4 loose players left to act behind you. what ranges do you push or call with? a raise should pot commit any of the others. (to get technical - a call should commit any thinking player but i digress) you are getting 7 to 5 to call here. if you call, you are giving players behind about 2.5 to 1 on their immediate calls or maybe 4.5 to 1 implied odds if they hit. if you push the first player is getting about 1.5 to 1 on his call.
what is your thought process in analyzing the possible actions? if you call, what is the plan if someone behind smooth calls? what if someone behind pushes?
all comments appreciated. i will post mine later.
Comments
Is this a mistake or some kind of cute play? Does he understand position?
If he is smarter then the average, this looks like a utg feign of weakness and i would tighten up the range to - TT + AQ+
If he just average aware player I would think this is weakness for the position and think I would remove AA-KK, standard would be to open - limp hoping to reraise. But I would include pairs down to 22 and JTs+ A9s + AKo- ATo
If this is kind of a standard weak opening from someone in with no positional awareness you could also include suited connectors - 78+
I think in later positions you could include k2+ q8+ j7+
smart player? just tight? postflop donk or aggro? you really need to nail this to get the range narrowed
But would could push here?
KQ (no flush draw)
JJ - TT
AJ - AT -JT
Ax with the flush draw
AA is a rare possibility given preflop and KK
AK-AQ w/o flush is a suicide move but again if he is bad it is a distinct possibility given alot of players cant play post flop
89s
All of these are consistent with his original range;
My action would be determined by
1) equity against original raisers range
2) ability of a push to get marginal hands that beat me to fold
3) ability to get a call/repush from hands i beat
4) equity against hands that will call me
all of these can be calculated with EV calc but sitting at the table my math would be approx and I would be focusing on my EQ vs push as I think another call would be an identical range adding maybe Q9 and 89o and removing AKs AQs (which you think would have rrpf)
I think this equates to AQ-AK with flush draw JJ - TT and KQ and Q9 with a flush draw
top two pair is going to diminish against multiples with similar ranges which we presume to call even to a push
knowing some cards we could figure exact EV but this would be the crude table side
Well greg, what did you hold,what happened?
I at least want to know.
i thought i'd give it another day to see if anyone else wanted to participate.
just to clarify, you call with AKs, AQs and Q9s with the flush draw, KQ, JJ and TT? i'm not sure what you were saying about AJ and AT. JT is a fold? and you call rather than push (i.e. not worried about chasers behind)? and you call if someone pushes behind?
i think i'd agree with most of that but i'd push with any made hand without a redraw to discourage chasers behind. if i was on a draw only, i'd probably call to encourage callers behind. but both of those ideas could be bad. i'm open for discussion on that.
If a brick falls on the turn, the pot has ~150BB and your stack is left effective with 70BB can you find a fold? do you really think anyone else can?
I push with;
AK-AQ and Q9s (?*) with the flush draw
*I think it might be +EV but I dont like it
KQ both obv
JJ- TT
AJ I would prefer with back door flush, but based on info given I dont like AJo but i dont think I can stop myself
89s -AT JT are all pretty clear folds imo
you on any other boards?
However, being your "typical" player, this is a spot where I won't be surprised to see him shove AK/AQ because he's afraid of "all the draws" without realizing that he could be way behind already. There is a real small possibility of KK/AA, but I don't think he will shove into 5 players with KK, and he isn't likely to shove top set as most "typical" players tend to think top set is invincible. I don't really see a typical player raising with JT here, so even AT/AJ is a possibility, but my range for villain is pretty much a big A in this spot.
Only hands I would call/re-push with are at least top/bottom pair (A10, AJ, sets) or TP with the flush draw, and obv made straight. Q9 and 89 suited with the TJ is close, but I think I might have lay them down with players to act as hitting my straight OR flush might not even be good.
Most (if not all hands) that I'm calling with I would lean towards pushing. (I'm discounting that you played AA this way) Sets (TT, JJ) are the 2 hands that I might consider calling only, but all other hands are pretty vulnerable to the range of hands most poeple can have here. By pushing, you are going to be eliminating hands that might flat on the flop but will not call a re-push.
*time to read other people's analysis*
my line of thinking is by calling you offer great odds for anyone with a flush draw (esp one with a K or Q) to call behind and you would be hard pressed to find the fold button if any of those cards comes. i think pushing takes away the chance of a tough decision but maybe it cuts down on your long term profit, too?
does anyone have any thoughts on the metagame aspect here? i've built up a big stack. how much advantage does that give me in this game? is it worth risking that status in this hand? or is that not even a consideration here? i guess if i take that line of thinking too far, what hand could possibly not fold here?
i'll give my thoughts on the hand tomorrow. hopefully some others will post before then.
Because you will get callers making the mistake of calling with a drawing hand when they're getting 2.4~:1 for their call. In poker, you are trying to get other players to make mistake, but making them call by not giving sufficient odd is a mistake on their part. You can't have the mentality of "this pot is big enough already" when you can allow them to clearly make a play thats -ev.
I'm confused. If you call here wouldn't it be +EV for the caller if had nut flush draw with K5 suited?
I think if you have any set here you are way ahead of villains range. You lose alot of equity by calling and letting a draw in.
Unless that isnt what you saying.