Final Table Decision
Blinds 3000/6000
6 players left...
I have about 75k (2nd or 3rd in chips), chip leader has about 85k in chips.
Aggressive loosish player (let's call him Chip) (who works at the casino) raises to 12000, I have A9c in late position and call.
Flop comes 7c7d2c.
Chip pushes.
What's your play?
Top 2 only payout
6 players left...
I have about 75k (2nd or 3rd in chips), chip leader has about 85k in chips.
Aggressive loosish player (let's call him Chip) (who works at the casino) raises to 12000, I have A9c in late position and call.
Flop comes 7c7d2c.
Chip pushes.
What's your play?
Top 2 only payout
Comments
Oh... sorry chip = chip leader 85k preflop (about 73k on the push)
1. You say your third in chips with about 75k. Do you believe in your game that if the chip leader or any other player for that matter had all the remaining chips left on the table but what you had infront of could you still win the tournament. In other words can you steal enough chips to survive until the heads up battle.
2. Position is everything in poker. Calling with A9 is ok maybe the play was to re=raise there to put him on a hand or define your own hand, but what has happend earlier? Have you ever played a pot with him before, how did it turn out, did you win or lose the hand, does he bully you or does he respect you. Do other players fear your play, what kind of image do you protray at the table. Do they see you how you want to be seen?
3. Have you pulled off a big bluff?
4. Have you got a player to make a big bet when you had the nuts?
5. Have you been caught with your hand in the cookie jar?
6. All this things come into play. I don't mind if I am one of 2 players left being out chip 5 or 6 to one, take your example. If I had 75k and heads up the blinds 5k 10k, I can make that work. If on the other hand 25k-50k than I might have to take some chances eariler, which means if I believe Ace high is the best hand here I make the call. You have to been so in tune with your game and that of the table only you know what the right call here is.
There is nothing like sitting at a table and knowing J high or Ace high is good and you make the call. There are lots of people on the forum who know what I am talking about.
Prophet 22
Ok, glad to provide clarification...
I was 2nd or 3rd, it was very close between 2 of us (not the chip leader), the rest of the pack was about 30-45k.
Because of the loose nature of the game I was in, it would be difficult to apply enough steals to keep chipping up. And in all honesty this one aspect (final table MTT play) is probably the weakest part of my game. So I'll answer it's unlikely that I would have been able to make enough 'right' steals to earn enough chips to keep me topped up.
I didn't re-raise only because the button (+ blinds) were left to act and he (the button) was the shortest of the remaining stacks and I feared his push. If he did then I could re-evaluate based on what the blinds and Chip did.
I had played (a lot) with all the players before except one (not the chip leader). He knows that the majority of players at the game are weak-passive and uses that knowledge to his advantage. He bluffs a fair amount, he bets second pair like it's the nuts and isn't afraid to put his entire stack at risk. He also knows that my game is solid ABC poker with an occasional move thrown in. He saw me earlier get paid off on a slow-played set and turned flush at an earlier table. I know he respects my game and knows I'm not afraid to call down with K high if I've got a read he's on a bluff. The Image I provided is pretty much a rock (playing only the nuts, and not showing any time another players hand was folded). I think I'm considered a solid player by most of the people there. As for your last question, the players are so weak-passive/atm style players that regardless of the fact I may only play 1 hand an hour, I'll still get action from most players when I do play a hand.
Not that was shown.
He and I hadn't tangled much except in a couple of sb vs. BB hands (he was on my left at an earlier table)
No.
<DON'T READ BELOW UNLESS YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT I DID AND WHY>
I didn't feel a 2 or 7 or PP was likely as he's a solid enough player and knows I can fold a big drawing hand (we'd actually had exactly that conversation after another of his all-ins were called by a player on a OESD) so unless he put me on 2 clubs (which is possible), an all-in here to me screams "FOLD YOUR HAND, PLEASE". I would expect him to try to extract more out of me with value bets in this situation.
I had played enough with Chip and put him on what I felt would be an appropriate range of hands in this situation. Included in those were things like KT,KJ,KQ,QJ,QT as well as A2o/s+.
I also knew that he was (next to the new player, who had shown he was pretty solid) my biggest competition on the table (in terms of skill) and that crippling him here would give me a large chip advantage moving forward.
I figured that I had at least 12 outs (9 flush and 3 9's) perhaps 3 more with the A's if he had a KQ/KJ kind of a hand. I also considered that perhaps I could already be ahead if he's making a move.
After about 2 minutes, I called.
Results of the hand will come in another post.
I make the call on his shove only if I believe my Ace high is good and I believe I can make the best hand. In this case any club gives you the nuts. It is really a feel play here. You know where or not you are good at the point you make the call or fold.
The real play would have been to raise to point where he felt you were committing your stack to the hand.
Prophet 22
Only paying top 2 jmakes a difference. With the blinds 6000/12000 you are still essentially coin flipping to get to the money. You need a large lead to have a high probabilitiy of cashing here. You are getting 3:2 on your money. Are you likely to be a better favourite to cash than 3:2 if you fold? Unlikely. You need this pot to win the tourney. Odds are he has an overpair to the board, meaning at most he holds one of your flush outs, plus your ace outs are likely good. He is pushing because he doesn't want the flush draw to come in and he is happy to pick up the pot. If he has an A, since the board is already paired, even if he has a stronger A than you, then you have more outs for a chop if the board double pairs or high cards fall.
He's my biggest threat, I think I have math and solid play over him but he's much better at bluffing, taking risks and chipping up than I am.
If you`re 2nd / 3rd in chips with blinds at that level already, this is becoming Bingo. I would have likely re-raised preflop given that you've said he's a fairly loose blind stealer - make him make the decisions. As is, I call here.
Mark
Fuck me! Is it my birthday?
Your preflop call is sooooo bad vs this type of player. This type of call is the kind of play that I use to immediately classify someone as tight passive and adjust my game against them to exploit thier tendencies. You must shove here every time vs the type of opponent you're playing. With your read and history it's a very easy call on the flop. You very likely have the best hand here and even if you dont you still have 35% equity in most cases.
All of the bolded portion should be in your first post. How can we help you make a decision without knowing your read on him. When you dont post all this our assumption is that you've given us all the info you have in terms of reads.
There's actually still a significant edge to be gained by understanding good push fold ranges based on stack sizes and ICM calculations. If you the chip leaders late in a tournament where the stacks are really short you can be constantly pushing on the shorter stacks and taking blinds from people who dont understand late game play, ICM, and push fold ranges.