My Highest Finish
Poker Stars $200+15 NLH
Finished in 41st place last night.
A question or two about my play on last hand.
I have gone almost three orbits without seeing a hand and with no opportunity to steal. Blinds are at 6000 - 12000 plus ante. It's folded to me in the cutoff position. I am sitting with 90,000 in chips blinds and antes have eaten about 40,000 since my last hand. I have 89o and decide its time to steal the bb has me chipped by about 8000 and the others have less. Insted of raising I do push every last chip I have and get called by bb with AQ. Flop AAJ no help and Im out in 41st. I played very well the whole tourney and then do this? Anyways, I think it's obvious that I wasn't thinking properly at this time all I had to do was raise the blinds to about 40000 and anyone without a hand is going to fold, or better yet wait for a hand that is worth raising with.
Any thoughts
Thanks
Wader
Finished in 41st place last night.
A question or two about my play on last hand.
I have gone almost three orbits without seeing a hand and with no opportunity to steal. Blinds are at 6000 - 12000 plus ante. It's folded to me in the cutoff position. I am sitting with 90,000 in chips blinds and antes have eaten about 40,000 since my last hand. I have 89o and decide its time to steal the bb has me chipped by about 8000 and the others have less. Insted of raising I do push every last chip I have and get called by bb with AQ. Flop AAJ no help and Im out in 41st. I played very well the whole tourney and then do this? Anyways, I think it's obvious that I wasn't thinking properly at this time all I had to do was raise the blinds to about 40000 and anyone without a hand is going to fold, or better yet wait for a hand that is worth raising with.
Any thoughts
Thanks
Wader
Comments
You are correct I had still had time to wait for a premium hand but when I do try to make a move like this, do you think I should just raise 3-4x the bb? I still have a chance of picking the blinds with no contest and if I get called I might hit my hand.
Thanks guys
Wader
After crunching some numbers your play is better than it seems, and it is a better play holding 89o than KQ or A8s. The reason is that your hand does not run into the other hand. KQo against will be dominated by more calling hands than 89o.
After the "crunch" (I'll explain how I did this below), I put the probability of you winning either the blinds or a called hand at 79.8% or the odds of you winning at 1.25 to 1. So, you only need a 25% premium to make this a good play, the minimum you can win is about 24% of your stack . So, over the long run I think it's an effective play given your stack size and the blinds. Now, if you had KQ or AT-A9 you're odds go down, because the calling hand range will dominate you more often, so you'll likely need a smaller stack to make it worthwhile.
Now, most likely (approx. 70%) you will win the blinds and antes. So, what does this buy you. Why take a 30% risk of busting out of the tourney when the reward is most likely the blinds/antes. Well, you get noticed first of all. And, when you're all in it's real hard to put you on a hand. So, the next round if you get aces or kings, you can push all-in and the range of hands that will call you will expand, giving you a real good shot at doubling up. This is the goal at this point. If you don't double up, you're in real trouble when it comes to winning the tournament. That's the goal! So, you're really setting yourself up for a double up. Now if you get moved, this was all for naught, and you just bought yourself 10 extra pairs of cards to look at. At this point, that's pretty important.
The big question, is why push all-in when a 2X raise could have done the job just as well. Well, the all-in push, narrows the range of hands that will call and it prevents the guy with the same size stack as you from coming over the top, and trying to narrow you down to AK, AA, KK. I remember playing "risk" with a friend, and he always said "send the men into battle, not the boys". This is a spot where you need to send the men in -- the whole stack. Personally, I don't like the 2x raise or smallish raise here because it's too vulnerable. And, remember when you're called by AK, you're not that much of a dog -- you're in better shape with 89o against one opponent than having a premium hand like AQ with two opponents. That's why AQ in EP is my least favourite hand at this stage. It's too good to let go, but getting called by more than one opponent really lowers the odds of winning -- who cares if you're getting proper pot odds -- it's survival at this point.
An alternative strategy is to just smooth call here and then put your whole stack in on the flop -- if you see a reason to do this. At this stage AA, KK, QQ will make this move and many decent players in the blinds will be very leary of a call in late position by a player who has the chips to make a steal attempt. So, in this spot you can make the smooth call and easily release with some pressure, knowing the other guy has something decent.
And,then you can wait for a premium hand. The problem is that premium hands in early position, really suck IMO. And, if you don't get a hand by the next round, you're down to about 70,000 chips with the blinds going up. Still not bad, but you're fading fast.
All, in all I think the three options are all equal. I think the push-in is your best option to win the tournament, as you increase the likelihood of playing a premium hand against an opponent you have dominated, in a later hand.
Personally, I've tried all three and each has worked and not worked. So, I wouldn't second guess your all-in push. I've had QQ in that spot, pushed and was called by KK, and AA -- premium isn't necessarily the only alternative.
My Crunching Methodology
Range of calling non-pair hands which dominate 89o -- AK-A9 -- Prob win(37.3)
Range of calling non-pair suited hands which dominate 89o -- Prob win (33.8)
Range of calling pair hands which dominate 89 -- AA-88 -- Prob win (17)
Range of calling non-pair hands on 89o -- A8 -- prob win (29.3)
Range of calling pair hands on 89o -- 77-22 -- prob win (46.1)
Total combination of hands above 134
Total possible combinations 1326
Percentage of calling hands our of total for one opponent 10% = PCALL
Blend the Prob Win for each range category and come up with a weighted average probability for a win with 89o against
a) one opponent = PWIN1 = 32.6,
b) one opponent with the one of the hands in that range and another random hand = PWIN2 = 27.25,
c) and one opponent with one of hands in that range and two random hands = PWIN3 = 19.73
Now the Probability of winning is the probability of 1 - being called by one opponent and losing, and being called by 2 opponents and losing, and being called by 3 opponents and losing. How I figured out the probabilities is outlined below, and the total is 79.86% or you need 1.25 to 1 to give you proper odds to win.
The probability of being called by one opponent is PCALL + PCALL + PCALL - (PCALL by two * 3 choose 2) - (PCALL by three) = 27.14%
The probability of being called by one opponent and losing is 27.14% * (1-PWIN1)
Figure out the probability that three opponents out of 3 will call. This is equal to PCALL by two * 3 choose 2 - (PCALL by three) = 2.96%
The probability of being called by two opponents and losing is 2.96 * (1-PWIN2)
Figure out the probability that three opponents out of 3 will call. This is equeal to PCALL by three = .1%
The probabilityh of being called by three opponents and losing is .1 * (1-PWIN3).
I like the smooth call approach. The only thing scarry about this is that I have to be absolutely certain that my opponent is the type of player that would drop top pair on the flop because he/she smells a trap.
When you say that KQ will be dominated by more hands than 89 I wonder about 910 and maybe even 10J. With 10J I think that alot of opponents will release AJ if there whole stack is at risk this late in the tourney (of course depending on stack size), I know I would. I would push with this hand, but would be very concerned to call with it. Again I am talking late in the tourney, I think these moves would rarely work early in the tourney because of the vast amount of looser players.
Thnaks again
Wader
No need to worry about how to figure this out. Unless the button also calls, you are in the drivers seat. All you need to know, is if they blinds are tricky players. If so, then smooth calling isn't a good option. But a normal player in that spot will tell you if they will let go, by the amount they will bet in proportion to their stack. If thier bet "hurts" them, leaving them only a few BBs, they won't drop. If they are giving themselves the option of dropping, then you have some options. You'll need to examine the board -- do you have a good shot at a draw -- ie. you're on the upper end of an open ended str8, or have top pair with. Or, if there are some scary board cards, Ace, King -- then I'd be inclined to push-in, if they check or make a "non-hurting" bet. Otherwise, I'd play the "chicken" game with them at the turn.
I didn't get into the psychology in my other post, as I was all excited about the math. At this spot in the tourney, most players with only 6-10BB are looking for an opportunity to put their chips in the middle. And, you mentioned there were two players with 3-4 BB -- they are desparate to put their chips in the middle. IMO, the range of calling hands is actually not as narrow as the range of your calling hands. At this point, it's like a knife-fight -- little finesse going on. So, I think AK-A8 wll call you, KQs, QJs, will also call. Any pair will call. JT will run into one more hand than 89 -- QJs. Personally, I think AJ will be calling here, as their sense of urgency will make them rationalize that your all-in bet is a small pair steal. Don't forget they are on the same time-clock as you, and two of them have a greater sense of urgency -- this urgency will make them rationalize that you are on a hand they can beat. I think facing an all-in bet with AJ, in that spot will also make you rationalize -- it's much easier to say you'll fold when you're away from the table and don't feel the urgency. After all, it's what made you push in with 89o.
So, with two small cards you are in the best spot. See a discussion at RGP with Greg Raymer saying he's happier holding 23 than KQ in a similar situaiton. http://tinyurl.com/5nqtv
The problem is that I'm only "estimating" the range of calling hands to get a decent sense of the odds of winning. If the range is smaller, your odds of winning a called hand go down dramatically. That's why I say KQ is worse, as you have a "fighting" shot at winning against a called hand with 89 vs. AK or AQ. But KQ will stink against those hands. JT and T9 are good too, but I still prefer 89, as opponents don't get to optimistic without holding face cards. So, not a face card, is best IMO.
Cheers
Magi
You have revealed what skilled players know and the "book players" don't get. Namely, shoving in with a hand like 9-8o is not nearly as bad a play as some would think. IN fact, there are lots of times that it is a positive EV play. Although, perhaps very slightly positive EV balanced against "fear of going bust."
Late in a tournament though, one must take just about every positive EV chance one gets.
Scoot the loot Wader. And... cross your fingers and make a sacrifice to the variance monkey gods.
I was at the final table tonight -- foxwoods qualifier (prize 11K). Eight players left and four go to foxwoods and the rest suck eggs. I have a dwindling stack (11k) as in the situation you describe, and I'm one in front of the cutoff looking down at AK. Button is half my stack, and Big blind has me covered by about 2k -- blinds 1200 and going up in 3 minutes. So, I want a race with the small stack, and push my whole stack in. As expected the button calls. And then the BB calls. Woa, didn't expect that. Well button turns over 88 and BB turns over AJo. Soooo.....yes AJ will call the damn bet! You can see where this is going. The turn brings a J and IGHN.
The only other way to play that would be to call pre-flop blind and watch the button push in. I don't think BB would push the rest of the stack but then again he called my all-in with AJ. So, the push i's entirely possible. I'd have to let go at that point, knowing one of them has got the ace I need and I only lose a BB.
I just choose the wrong fall line there. I wanted that small stack sooo....bad. If I were only psychic.
Cheers
Magi
After a sober second thought, over and over and over, I realize I made the best play. I had a decent shot against the 8's and and insurance pot against AJo which would have slightly added to my stack. Right decision. If I knew what the results were going to be, wrong decision. But if I had that talent I wouldn't be playing poker!
Cheers
Magi
Just curiuos if the the roles where reversed and you where in the BB in this situation would you have pushed with the two all-ins in front of you with AJ?
This is the biggest problem the pros have with the big fields playing the tournies. The pros biggest weakness is that they've forgotton about the different skill levels of players and really don't have a good read on the wide range of skills of the competition.
Cheers
Magi