All-in w Pocket Twos - how do you make this call?
I was watching the EPT German Open and thought this hand was pretty interesting. We are down to four players and Mike McDonald is the chip leader. It is folded around to MM who makes it $75k from the button with pocket twos (the blinds at 5/10k w 1k ante). Diego goes all-in for another $535k raise. If MM makes this call, it will represent a significant portion of his remaining stack, and he will likely lose the chip lead. The best case senerio he is a coin toss facing two over cards or dominated with a higher pair. Deigo may have thought MM was trying to steal the blinds and went all-in accordingly. MM may have figured Deigo thought he was trying to steal the blinds with his raise and pushed to get him off the hand (and likely had two over cards for a coin toss). If MM wins the hand he has a huge chip lead.
Does this justify making the call knowing it is a coin toss? Or should he wait for a better situation given his chip position?
A few hands later and Diego Perez Marco was signing for his check, the victim of another incredible call from McDonald. The young Canadian had raised to $75,000 from the button and saw Perez move all-in for $610,000 from the small blind. Gülünay folded out of the big blind and the action was back on McDonald, who thought for a few moments before making the call and showing a measly pocket pair of twos.
Does this justify making the call knowing it is a coin toss? Or should he wait for a better situation given his chip position?
A few hands later and Diego Perez Marco was signing for his check, the victim of another incredible call from McDonald. The young Canadian had raised to $75,000 from the button and saw Perez move all-in for $610,000 from the small blind. Gülünay folded out of the big blind and the action was back on McDonald, who thought for a few moments before making the call and showing a measly pocket pair of twos.
Comments
at first i thought mikey put in a ridiculous raise but at these blind levels, pretty std.
the re-raise is huge but even if i put him on a re-steal, at worse than 1.4:1 i can't see making the call here. at best he's 52% (~48% actually)and at worst, a LOT worse. seems pretty risky for more than half of his stack.
maybe there's a reason why mikey has a couple mil more than me in tourney winnings?
or maybe, just maybe, it is all luck.
will have to confirm the blinds but in either case, the call was still interesting given his position in the tournament and his chance of winning the hand with a low pair. He seemed to be dominating the table so I thought he would have waited for a better opportunity. At the end of the day, it was a nice call that worked in his favour.
If he puts the other guy on overs then he is 52% to win and leading and its always good to have an opportunity to kick someone out. It is also shows the other players at the table not to steal the blinds or push all-in. With chip lead, do not want players to push all-in stealing blinds and building chip stack. Want to be able to outplay them. So it creates a good image for him at the table.
he wins the hand, he has a big chip lead and a huge likelihood to win it all. he loses it, he is hurt but still has enough chips to give himself a reasonable shot.
was it a good play? it really boils down to the dynamics of the table.
if mikey had been stealing a lot in position and had shown the ability to laydown to a re-steal, then the guy makes the play with any 2 cards. his stack is large enough at 20+BBs that mikey can't just call based on pot odds. he HAS to have some kind of hand. mikey is getting a bit worse than 1.4:1 on his money so 22 has proper odds against a random hand. (check with pokerstove - just over 50%)
on the other hand, if the guy only makes this play with a 'decent' hand (say 30% fall in this category - 22+,A4s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o), then, is mikey in for a world of hurt if he calls? well, 1 opponent's hand (22) nets him 20k. 72 hands (33+) net him (.18*735k-.82*535k = ) -305k. about 300 hands (non-pair, higher cards) net him 100k. i net that out to an EV of about 20k for making the call. (or you can pokerstove it - he's at about 44.5% against that range - and it comes out at about 17k.) it really depends on the % of hands he makes the move with. drop down below 20% then then the EV becomes negative. so again, we need to know the dynamics of the table and who knows that better than mikey?
does that make this a 'great' read? i dunno. buddy will tell you that any +EV call is a good one but i'm skeptical when this much of your stack is on the line. on the other hand, when it puts you that much closer to a lock on the win, maybe this outweighs everything else?
i wish some experienced big tourney players posted here (like barry, doyle or sirwatts) so we could get their insights into the thinking behind this call and whether mikey is a sheer genius or just dumb lucky.
p.s. jimmy, i looked up the hand history to confirm the blinds and antes. ept dortmund. EPT Dortmund Live Updates - Dortmund EPT Live Updates - Live Updates From EPT Dortmund - Poker Verdict . oh yea, and my numbers may be off a bit because jimmy said the raise was 535k but it may have been 550k, depending on who you believe. it looks like mikey had about 1 mil at that point so this was a huuuuuuuuuuuuuge hand.
p.p.s. i found a post from mikey on a poker forum (where they actually talk about poker!) saying those chip counts are incorrect and the raise was only about 370k. that changes things dramatically, of course...
Yeah, would be nice if some of the mtt guys posted here..maybe they feel it would be like banging their heads against the wall..but Timex posted on PSO under hit21hit forever so ..Idk.
The call looks marginal at best, when you're by far the best player at the table. IIRC..he posted something about not raising and folding to that donk.
Dumb lucky?..Definately not, Was watching the WSOP Eurpoe on the tube and Jamie Gold layed a sick beat on him and acted like a complete dick by verbally twisting the knife.
so on that other forum (the one where the post of the decade is not about anal invasions) mikey mentioned the raise was only something like 370k. explained the other guy had just over 600 at last chip count but had lost more than 150 in a pot since then. still significant but not the same amount of hurt for mikey. now he's getting more than 1.5:1 and he would still have more than 20BBs if he loses. a much easier call, i suppose.
how about an MTTer describing how +EV a play must be to risk x% of their stack under what conditions? a 4- or 5-dimensional table should suffice.
so the television and web coverage was wrong when they put him at $600k plus all-in raise? if only 370k raise, the call would make a bit more sense.
P.S. Can I keep your Gus Hansen book until I finish it? If you will be at the same place tomorrow night that you, pokerJAH and I were in two weeks ago, I can lend you my Negreanu book again in case you need a paperweight.
sure, keep it a while longer if you find it useful. just don't bring it back all sticky. i'm curious what you have been doing with it the past 2 weeks - it is only a couple hundred pages! (how do you like all the exclamations he put in the book!!!)
you can keep danny's tome for now. i have no need to press any flowers at the moment.