5/5 Set Hand
I sit down to play 5/5 NL at the forum's favourite casino. 
The two biggest stacks by far are a couple who are sitting beside each other as usual. A player later complained after they left why they are allowed to sit beside each other, and I can understand the perception and potential for cheating, but I did not notice any. After getting busted by a "set-up hand" while short-stacking (I can post the hand if anybody's interested), I managed to bring my stack up to $1,200 when the following hand occurred.
EP raises to 20. There are two callers, including the female half of the couple at the cut-off position, who has me covered. I have
:2c :2s
in the small blind.
1) What would you do?
I opt to call. There are four players and the pot is $85. The flop is something like
:2d :5h :9s
Bingo! EP bets $40. Lady raises to $120.
2) What would you do?
I flat-call. Everybody else folds. Turn is
:jh
3) What would you do?
I wanted to check-raise, but she checks too.
4) Do you think you are ahead in this hand? What likely range of hands would you put her on?
River is
:8h
5) What would you do?
The two biggest stacks by far are a couple who are sitting beside each other as usual. A player later complained after they left why they are allowed to sit beside each other, and I can understand the perception and potential for cheating, but I did not notice any. After getting busted by a "set-up hand" while short-stacking (I can post the hand if anybody's interested), I managed to bring my stack up to $1,200 when the following hand occurred.EP raises to 20. There are two callers, including the female half of the couple at the cut-off position, who has me covered. I have
:2c :2s
in the small blind.
1) What would you do?
I opt to call. There are four players and the pot is $85. The flop is something like
:2d :5h :9s
Bingo! EP bets $40. Lady raises to $120.
2) What would you do?
I flat-call. Everybody else folds. Turn is
:jh
3) What would you do?
I wanted to check-raise, but she checks too.
4) Do you think you are ahead in this hand? What likely range of hands would you put her on?
River is
:8h
5) What would you do?
Comments
I would have probably played it the same way as you and been disappointed that I couldn't check-raise on the turn. I probably fire a value bet on the river and have to think about what to do if I get raised.
In Harrington's new cash game book, he discusses controlling pot sizes - the old "Big hand / Big pot Small hand / Small pot" thing. He claims to see a lot of players control said pots by betting on one street, and checking another, especially when in position. Small hands are one and two pair (on dangerous boards), and some others depending on the texture of the board. So in this case, TPTK, and the various draws are the weaker hands.
I play the hand the same in this case up until the turn. If I've allowed the "catch up" card, and if the player's at all decent and trying to control the size of the pot, I prefer betting out in this situation. Without reads on the player's calling comfort level I'd aim on a lowish side to make any backdoor draw pay their dues - a third of the pot'll work (please note the time I'm posting - I'm not bothering with the calculations of the pot size and what not to figure out what the bet would be / if you're pot committed).
Anyways.. I bet the turn, and see what she does... if she folds, decent enough sized pot already, if she calls / re-pops it, on a board of 259J, I have to wonder what hands fit her play, and of course we all (should) know how to do this... as Sandy said, JJ fits well, she called in position, bet the 9 high flop to see if the EP raiser had AK or such, and then a turn card slowplay is tricksy. Would she call $20 with J9? A9? 34? 67? Even if she calls with these, what fits post flop's re-raise? Could be any of these hands if she thinks she can bully EP and you've kinda been relegated to "tagalong" on the hand...
I just realized I didn't actually contribute much, so I'll just watch and learn from the better players, but I'd love to know the outcome from PM or something.
Mark
~~~~
you've said nothing about the other players' styles here or your own, for that matter. (you haven't had the balls to sit in a cash game with me so i dont even know your 'style'. lol.) stack sizes are very important, too.
a raise to 20 PF in that 5/5 game is just a 'sweetner'. i'm shocked there were only 2 callers. i can only assume EP was playing fairly tight and was getting some respect. or the others were asleep. even i would call that in LP with any decent speculative hand. soooted Aces, med PP, decent connected cards are all good candidates. i would call from the SB with 22 with the intention of playing a big pot if i hit the flop. (if i wasn't willing to play for 1200 then i just muck it and go take a walk.)
so, her raise on the flop tells you very little. if she sees you as weak and puts the raiser on high cards that didn't hit, it's pretty much automatic, assuming she is playing a strong game. (she IS, right?) the thing you gotta be asking yourself is: if you hit top or middle set on a very dry board, would you want to chase everyone out of the pot with a raise that would pretty much pot commit most opponents (given the stack sizes...)? more likely she'd put in a small raise to build the pot. i doubt she'd have 2 PAIR here and not likely TT+ (player read dependent -would she smooth call PF with a hand that strong?). so more likely T9 or A9s. maybe even 43s? i suppose 55 is possible. if she had 99, it is quite possible she would have re-raised PF but again, it depends on your read of the original raiser and the lady. it looks more likely that she is trying to blow everyone out of the pot with a hand much weaker than a set.
i think the best play on the flop is to lead out the flop for 40-50. hopefully the raiser will raise here and you can trap some dead money in the pot. if the lady then re-raises, you are put to a decision. pretty much everyone in the world says you have to go broke with set over set (even your idol, action danny...) so go broke. personally, i hate to blow off 1200 after already busting but it sounds like you can make it back pretty quick.
not sure whether you should smooth call on the flop or re-raise. it really depends on your opponents. will EP call that raise? if you re-raise (writing off potential of EP staying in) will the lady stay in the hand? lots of variables here. when the lady plays the flop strongly and gets called, do you have the impression she is likely to bet the turn? since my head is starting to spin, i say re-re-raise here. when she folds, you can swear quietly in italian. when she re-re-re-raises you, kiss your chips and whisper 'see you in hell' as you say goodbye to them.
given the flop action and the commencement of coordination of the board, lead out with a pot-sized bet and push if she wants to mix it up.
given the turn in-action, bet 250 on the river. throw you cards at the dealer when you get raised. as an alternative, bet 5 bucks and call the 200 raise while saying 'unbelievable'.
Is it better to lead out on the turn or go for the check-raise.
The flat-call lead out line makes me suspecious because that jack didn't really do anything for anyones hand.
The check-raise line doesn't seem so bad. If she bets, you raise it getting her money. If she checks through, you get the river bet to make the 'value' bet of whatever amount she was going to checkraise to anyway. Also, when the turn checks through, your range of hands on the river has now increased as it's a standard bluffing spot when the aggressor gives up the turn.
1) call with these stack sizes. Folding is not an option.
2) Would lady raise with trip 5 or 9s? most players would slow play these hands, especially the trip 9s.If you think you are ahead at this point, raise is not too bad to build the pot further.
3) definitely a raise on the turn. why give this person a chance for a free card? 78 now has a double belly buster (6 or 10 gets the straight). also now have a flush draw? why did they check after the raise on the flop?
4) maybe straight draw (34suited) or two pair. Flush draw very unlikely.
5) if you bet and she raises, what are you going to do? would probably check here after checking on the turn.
you've got to consider what hand she puts you on. you called the raise OOP PF. most likely you would have a small-med PP or some kind of suited connectors, soooted Ace, 2 big cards.
you called a large raise OOP on the flop with another person still to act, on a very dry board. you've told her you can likely beat top pair.
she checks the turn, which tells ME she can't beat top pair. otherwise, she'd be wanting to build a big pot before another scare card comes killing her action. maybe she's on a draw or was completely bluffing the flop.
you may have been outdrawn on the river but you must bet it anyway, since she may call you down with A9s, thinking you could be bluffing here.
of course, all of this is assuming she is a good, thinking player. that is a big assumption for fallsview, in general. i'm eager to hear how this turned out. did you accidentally toss a card in face down?
2. Personally, I likely re-raise here. Flat-calling is fine, mixing it up, maybe inducing EP to call, but you certainly have to bet out on the turn!
3. I dislike this check... You allow villian to get to the river too cheaply with this line...
4. I think you are still ahead here, and that's why I don't like your line. As for what range villian has... how do they play? Tight, LAGgy... I need something to work with... I can't pull a range out of my a... err... mid-air! You're still ahead of any "range".
5. Bet/fold $200... villian played Ah9h perfectly IMHO.
I classified her as a TAG, which is probably what she thinks of me too. Loose players would probably think of us as "weak-tight nits" in the 5/5 game.
Against a range of {99+, 55, A9}, my equity on the river is 78%. I made a bet of $180. She immediately called.
6) Guess what her hand was.
oops, sorry...me no read good on weekends
doesn't anyone finish their stories anymore?
If I was in her position, the range of hands that I would put a TAG on after the $120 call on the flop would be something like {99+,55,22,A9}. After she turned top set, she would have 97% equity against that range. If I was her, I would be thinking of how much to bet on the turn and river so she would get my whole $1,000+ stack. Had she bet on the turn or raised on the river, I could have easily lost my entire stack. By me checking on the turn and putting a small bet on the river, I got lucky and lost the minimum. She later admitted that she hadn't thought about me having a set and that she misplayed the hand.
you - "better to lose a medium pot than lose a big one"
her - "better to win a medium pot than win a big one"
everyone else - "wtf?"
The turn I can't check in this position because on the flop the bet there means she has a hand that she is not laying down so I would at least throw a bet out on the turn. The river is an action killer and her value call was a perfect example of how people do not know they are good (she had no clue about the odds to hit a back door flush and what you would have had to be holding on the flop to hit that....)
The bigger issue with this hand is the preflop play by JJ.
Overall the hand was well played and you lost the minimum. My stack would have been in on the flop as soon as she went 120...I bet 450....and she shoves on me....going "oh man..."...then "yes I hit my 2 outer"
I also can't put her on 55 or 99 because she doesn't raise the flop.......the funny thing about these hands at fallsview is they will not re-raise the river with top set but if you had shoved all in on the river she would have called saying "how can i fold this hand" (in otherwords you won't re-raise the river with your hand but you will call off your stack)
That ideology will always bring me back to fallsview time and time again.....