Call or Fold?

Interesting hand...I'm the chip leader at the moment, top 4 pay, down to seven. Villain is playing well...aggressive when in the pot, but can fold when he thinks he's beat. This hand would either give me a MONSTER stack, or I would be left with less than 10bb.

200.00/400.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit)
Holdem 2 Table (Real/Tournament)
Seat 1: satin (3910.00)
Seat 2: JENAKI (4715.00)
Seat 3: yelrihs (4145.00)
Seat 6: dkausc (3580.00)
Seat 7: Hleb_A (3710.00)
Seat 8: GoingGray (6970.00)
Seat 9: tandje30 (2970.00)
satin post SB 200.00
JENAKI post BB 400.00
** Deal **
satin [N/A, N/A]
JENAKI [N/A, N/A]
yelrihs [N/A, N/A]
dkausc [N/A, N/A]
Hleb_A [N/A, N/A]
GoingGray [10s, Ks]
tandje30 [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
yelrihs Fold
dkausc Fold
Hleb_A Fold
GoingGray Raise to 1200.00
tandje30 Fold
satin Fold
JENAKI Call 1200.00
*** Flop(Board): *** : [Js, As, 6c]
*** Bet Round 2 ***
JENAKI All-in 3515.00

Thought I could take the blinds with the preflop raise, but suspected villain had a good starting hand with his call. He hasn't been involved much as of yet and when he does, its solid play. I have the nut flush draw and a gut shot straight (and outs to RF).

Comments

  • Tough one.
    You are flipping (and ahead) with almost anthing he could posssibly call you with preflop.
    Unless I figure him for top set (not very likely), I call (but I am a bad player :D ).
  • STR82ACE wrote: »
    Interesting hand...I'm the chip leader at the moment, top 4 pay, down to seven. Villain is playing well...aggressive when in the pot, but can fold when he thinks he's beat. This hand would either give me a MONSTER stack, or I would be left with less than 10bb.

    200.00/400.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit)
    Holdem 2 Table (Real/Tournament)
    Seat 1: satin (3910.00)
    Seat 2: JENAKI (4715.00)
    Seat 3: yelrihs (4145.00)
    Seat 6: dkausc (3580.00)
    Seat 7: Hleb_A (3710.00)
    Seat 8: GoingGray (6970.00)
    Seat 9: tandje30 (2970.00)
    satin post SB 200.00
    JENAKI post BB 400.00
    ** Deal **
    satin [N/A, N/A]
    JENAKI [N/A, N/A]
    yelrihs [N/A, N/A]
    dkausc [N/A, N/A]
    Hleb_A [N/A, N/A]
    GoingGray [10s, Ks]
    tandje30 [N/A, N/A]
    *** Bet Round 1 ***
    yelrihs Fold
    dkausc Fold
    Hleb_A Fold
    GoingGray Raise to 1200.00
    tandje30 Fold
    satin Fold
    JENAKI Call 1200.00
    *** Flop(Board): *** : [Js, As, 6c]
    *** Bet Round 2 ***
    JENAKI All-in 3515.00

    Thought I could take the blinds with the preflop raise, but suspected villain had a good starting hand with his call. He hasn't been involved much as of yet and when he does, its solid play. I have the nut flush draw and a gut shot straight (and outs to RF).

    Why no shove preflop??

    As played call...
  • Why no shove preflop??

    Didn't think a shove was warranted here. Like I said, I thought my raise would be enough to get me the blinds, and I don't think pushing here on MY part was warranted preflop.
  • with just him playing well and aggressive in pots.

    I would say he probably called your raise with A K, A Q, or A J.

    Meaning you are probably behind to his shove. I don't think he would have pushed into you with a smaller pocket pair with an ace and jack on the flop.

    I would probably fold here and keep my good stack (but I really do not know what his betting patterns have been.


    But then what do I know last night at a live tournament I pushed all in with 2 pair on a 2 spade board and villain called me chasing his flush leaving him 5x the big blind and he hit it on the river.

    See you tonight AJ
  • Agreed on both points. It is +EV to call even IF villain does have an Ace.
    Why no shove preflop??
    As played call...
  • Pre-flop open shoving seems pretty dumb.
  • BBC Z wrote: »
    Pre-flop open shoving seems pretty dumb.

    Agreed. Why would you want to do that when the bet made gives you the info you needed? But my focus has always been on post-flop play so I'm biased here.

    As for the hand, a couple of things go through my mind:

    1. I'm currently behind. While it's possible they figured you were trying to steal Pre-Flop this isn't the board to put that theory to the test for your tournament life. So, I'm behind. Probably has Aces and is getting you off a possible flush draw, which is exactly what you have.

    2. Based on this my call or fold would be more based on the other 5 players. Am I playing better and confident enough that I can rebuild against these other players if I miss, if yes, I insta-call. If not, I probably say gh and move on. Although lately, I probably call here either way. I don't remember what the blinds were at in your post.

    I don't have your post open so I'd want to double-check some of the chip counts etc.. and can't but I probably don't change my reply too much since I recall you were the chip leader.

    Edit: Okay, went back and looked at the chip count. Makes it a little tougher because it leaves you in pretty bad shape if you lose. I've had more gamble in me lately so I still call but I think either is perfectly acceptable.

    (On a side note I always avoid replying to these types of threads because I have such a hard time expressing my thought process but I hope to do so more so I can elevate my own game so if any of this is convoluted, my apologies, and it is 2:00 in the morning as well :) )
  • nice stop and go. you are potentiially ahead here with at least 12 outs and quite possibly 18, even if you need to draw out. 'see you in hell' time.
  • lol dont fold
  • I called on the drawing outs. Villian had AKo and I never improved. Down to 2200 in chips now, and still a couple away from the money, I turned to my short stack game. Got lucky a couple of times to regain the chip lead, and ended up headsup with this particular Villian.

    Dealt 72o in the bb, he simply calls from the sb. Flop comes 72K rainbow. I put out a pot sized bet, he raises me about half his stack. I let the time slip to about half and push allin. He calls showing K10, but my two pair hold up to win it all.
  • Let's do this Harrington style. Hands he could have:

    1. Ax. He figures you have something other than an A and pushes with the best hand or he has a big A hand. Your outs are 12.

    2. Set. AA is unlikely as is JJ for the same reason (no raise pf). And if he did call with either of those hands (ie. some sort of stop n go) would shove right away with such strength. Your outs are 12 but he has a redraw so say 11.

    3. 7s6s. He hit bottom pair and a flush draw. Given the pot and stack sizes, I would shove this hand and hoped you missed completely. Your outs are 18.

    4. KK-QQ. After swallowing his vomit internally, he shoves anyways. Your outs are 12 against KK and 15 against QQ.

    Pot odds. 3500+2400:3500 = 1.7:1. I'd say you need 10-11 outs to make this the right call. In the above scenarios, only a set even comes close.

    Overall, I'd say it is correct to call.

    Interesting note: I believe the balancing factor in making this a call is the inside straight draw for 3 more outs.
  • SirWatts wrote: »
    lol dont fold

    I agree......................check!:ac
  • Weird line he picked, he could have an ace but i think he has a fd of some sort. Im calling here for sure because i think he either has a "J" or he has a smaller fd. Whatever, Im calling even if he showed me an A somehow.
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