Simple Pot Odds
Hello all, what is the easiest way to figure out pot odds? Does anyone have a simple way of doing this? I know this is a very basic question but will help me and likely others.
thanks
labeach
thanks
labeach
Comments
As a double-check, your bet is included in what's in the pot before you figure out the odds right?
if you're looking to calculate how much is in the pot, well, just take the time and count the chips.... if you're wondering how much it'll be if you want to raise the pot, it's pot+your call of any previous bets (eg. pot is 100, someone pots - $200, you want to re-pot it's now a total of $400 to you - calling the $100 bet makes a $300 pot, so the pot raise is $300).
If you're talking about if you should draw or not, the easiest is the rule of 4's and 2's. Count your outs, and if there's two cards to come (i.e. you're going to be all in on the flop) you times that # by 4 (9 outs is ~36%). If you only get to see one more card, it's times 2 (9 outs is ~18%). It's not perfect, but it's close enough for most decisions.
Mark
thanks again
labeach
PKR - How to calculate poker pot odds
i'm guessing you haven't read a lot of poker books? i'd recommend starting with something like Theory of Poker.
To make a call "correct" in terms of EV (expected value), the odds of your making your hand has to be lower than the odds the pot / bet is laying you. Let's do a common example:
Say you know your opponent has top pair top kicker on this board:
Ah-6h-4c
Now you have KhQh, so you have a draw to the nut flush or 9 outs.
Let's say your opponent and you have built a pot of $10, and he bets you all in for your remaining $4. His bet makes the pot $14, and you need to call $4 to win it, which means the pot is laying you about 3.5 to one odds (14/4). Now, you know that you have 9 outs, and if you put yourself all in, you get to see both of the next two cards, so we use the rule of 4... 9 outs x 4 = 36% chance, or a little better than 3:1 to hit, but let's just say 3:1.
In this case, since the odds you are getting from the pot are bigger than your odds to hit, you should call. I find it easier to understand if you do the actual "big numbers". If you find yourself in this scenario 10 times, you will hit your hand 3-4 times, earning a total of $14 each time, so you MAKE $42-$56. But, you will lose 6-7 times, and therefore lose that extra $4 each time, which means you LOSE $24-$28. Overall, you're making money, so this call is "+EV" (disclaimer: I may be doing the math / wording wrong, but I'm tired, so GFY).
Now, same hand, let's say you have $8 back and he puts you all in. The odds change now, you've got to spend $8 to win $18, which is about 2.25:1 odds (18/8), and you still have your 3:1 chance of winning. THIS time, the payouts change, you win 3-4 times out of ten for a profit of $54-$72, but this time you're losing $56-$64 on the 6-7 times you lose, so this is a bad call or "-EV".
Now, ten times in this situation is by no means a big enough number for the odds to work out, you may win 5-6 times, hell you may win all 10, but over the "long term" (read: Thousands and thousands of hands) where you're in this situation, it'll work out this way. Sometimes you'll see an actual number beside the "+/- EV", and I believe that is simply the amount of money you can expect to win - on average - every time you make that move.
IMPLIED odds, as was mentioned above, is a guesstimation (usually) as to how much you can milk the bettor if you DO make your hand. In these cases neither of you can be all in (or there's no implied odds - no more money to be won). I think the most common "implied odds call" is for small - medium pocket pairs calling a raise. You hit your set, and you've got a well disguised monster than someone who catches something like top pair will pay you off on....
Hope that helps - man it's a slow day at work.
Mark
It may not be the right way....but the way I do it is simply by thinking about the money. 1. What's the total pot (before my call) and then 2. what amount do I have to call.
Here's my easiest example. I've raised with AJ (terrible i know) to 3x bb of 300....so to 900 total. Mark in the big blind goes all in for 900 more for a total of 1800. Pot is now 1800+900+150sb. for a total of 2850. My call would obviously be 900. so i have to spend 900 to win 2850. I'm getting slightly more than 3 to 1 on my money. Unless I can put Mark on a bigger ace I have to call. Ie if Mark shows me Queens I still pretty much have to call (I'm hoping he has 78o).
Sometimes its not what you read but what you remember. You can witness my total disregard for pot odds later tonight. Save me a seat, on your left of course
AcKc vs AJo (no club) is 73.xx to 22.xx%
Not a great example, since they're VERY close to one another in odds.... if you "have to call" the QQ, you also "have to call" the AK....
Mark
Great explanation Mark, but one minor mistake. With 9 outs on the flop, you're closer to 2:1 to complete by the river.
Also, your samples assume all-in calls on the flop. If you're call does not put you all-in (you're not guaranteed to see the river without calling another bet), you should use the rule of 2 to calculate your pot odds to complete by the next card.
Run it... AcKc vs KhQh on a Ah2h7c board 37.17% KQ wins 62.83% AK wins
And I stated that the villain was putting you all in.
Mark
Not to radically overhaul your game or anything, but I dont think AJo is a 71% fav in this scenario.
Mark
I'd assume a hand like AcAs vs. Ax7s/c is probably the biggest dog, 5.65%...
Is there a bigger one?
Mark
Ks Kc 94.16%
2c Kh 4.31%
Anyway, after the mess I made of the ring game at Bristol the other night I started to re-evaluate and see what I was doing wrong. I'm sure its not one, but many lol. I thought one of the many great poker minds here might be able to help me see this topic in a different way. I also thought it might be a valuable topic for beginners joining the forum to read. As some new members may be fearful to post "basic" questions.
Thanks to Mark and the other great responses I do appreciate your time.
labeach
for that matter, raising against a short stack noted for defending his big blind is incorrect in the first place...
i hope this didn't come off as too insulting!
In this case, you know short stack is desparate and you know AJ is much better than his random hand. I.e., you want to get all-in heads up with him. A 3x raise is a good way to do that.