AK vs. all-in reraise in cash game
While there were a couple of forumers nearing final table in a tournament, there were at least five other forumers in a fun-filled $1/2 cash game table when the following hand came up. (If somebody remembers the hand better than I do, let me know and I will post corrections.)
Hero open-raises to $11 with A-Ko
:ac :kd
Next player re-raises all in for around $78. Everybody else folds. Hero has villain covered. Villain seems to be a tight player, who has previously raised all-in pre-flop with JJ.
What would you do?
Hero open-raises to $11 with A-Ko
:ac :kd
Next player re-raises all in for around $78. Everybody else folds. Hero has villain covered. Villain seems to be a tight player, who has previously raised all-in pre-flop with JJ.
What would you do?
Comments
if he seems to be a tight player you are losing, plus ace king sucks a@#.
AA or KK would likely re-raise it to about $35 and get the rest in on the flop. More vulnerable hands would shove. I would put his range at AQ+, 99+ with AA and KK discounted.
This essentially puts you in a flip situation and the blinds + your $12 raise puts enough dead money in the pot to get it in here.
For a coin flip, likely, its really up to you whether you want to risk it. By memory, I think you love AK so I would say you called. If I'm up on the night, I may call. If this guy seemed to be draining chips and was just looking to get his chips in with any decent hand, I might call. I have seen lots of players fold AK before in this situation.
What happened?
Another forumer thought that a call against JJ would have been -EV and asked what I would have done. I answered that calling was +EV and I would have called. With $92 in the pot and $67 to call, you are getting 1.4-to-1 pot odds, and if you think your probability of winning is over 42% ($67/$159), then calling is the correct EV-maximizing decision. As long as I have access to enough cash to rebuy, I would gladly take +EV coin-flips every single hand in a cash game!
Against JJ, your EV = -$67 * 0.568 + $92 * .432 = +$1.69.
If you make 1000 such correct calls in your lifetime instead of folding, then you will make an extra $1,690 in profit.
I would only fold AK if my read on the opponent is that there is a high probability that he has AA or KK. For example, if I think that villain would only re-raise all-in with the top 4% of hands (AA-99, AK), then my equity is 41% in this situation and calling would be -EV.
as i recall from the time, i'm pretty sure i said it was something like 42/57 while everyone else said it was almost 50/50. and that the EV of the call was at most 5 bucks plus or minus when you factor in the dead money. (i guess i came pretty close for late at night with no computer close at hand).
i also said i didn't think it was worth it to risk 60+ to make at best 5. i don't mind taking +EV opportunities but i'm not so keen on the huge variance plays when it represents a big chunk of my stack. especially if i'm already down a chunk.
for the record, it wasn't me making the hero fold. and the hero also had to factor in the chance SHE could be up against AA or KK here as it was easy to read the opponent was playing a big hand (and would not necessarily make a smallish raise given the short stack situation). i'm indifferent to calling or folding here. long term it is SLIGHTLY profitable. caling is moderately ok but i'm not opposed to a fold here either.
He had a made hand, you did not.
Although you may have hit one or the other he also may have hit a jake.
Congrats for not marrying your hand!
cheers..
It is important to bring enough cash for the limits you're playing such that you won't worry so much about variance. If there are :fish: in the table that call raises with garbage and sucks out, you want to have enough cash to keep topping up to the maximum because you know the bad player will eventually donk off all his money.
hits a K on the river!
blehhh
AK is a much stronger hand when you're pushing!!
i think i have an issue with your definition of 'highly'.
like i said, i don't think it is a 'terrible' call. i don't think it is a 'great' one either. i'd say the same about the fold. it's really one of those decisions you aren't much wrong either way.
Pkrfce9 down in a cash game, that's unheard of. I may have to head back up to GT so you can have one more fish at the table.
Pre-flop situations like this are fairly common at the table and you should be recognizing them like always as a spot to get your money in.
you obviously aren't risking $60 to win $5 or $2 or whatever it was, you are risking $60 to win the whole pot, over the long run you will GUARANTEED make $2 or whatever per time. this is NOT risking $60 to win $2, very very obviously so. I find it hard to believe that folding AK in a $1/$2 game to a $78 push after already raising can ever be close to wrong. It would have to be against the nittiest of nits. This situation is a clear clear call.
Casino Niagara 1/2NL,
New girl sits down and opens for $40 in the BB, 2 other players call, all the money goes in on the flop and she wins $300 with pocket QQ.
I see her make a normal $17 raise with KK about an hour later.
About 2 hours later, she again bets $40 in EP (360 back), gets 2 donkey loose flat callers (280 and 145 back). I'm on the button with AKo and I have about $1400.
My read on the girl is QQ or JJ, maybe a tiny chance of KK or AA.
Donkeys have ... probably top 30% hands.
My thoughts are in white below.
I pushed all in.
I'm not sure if it's the right move since at 1/2 you don't have much fold equity.
I haven't seen her fold a hand to a re-raise preflop yet.
I'm pretty much sure that the donkeys will fold... There is an outside chance that they have AA and are playing it badly.
I think I'm a better postflop player than the girl and I have position, So I gave strong consideration to calling and playing some poker postflop. If the AK were suited then I'd be happy to play a multway pot postflop. But AKo...
Comments?
This becomes a little read dependant..I wish the op had stated that THIS GUY HAS JJ or better here, always.
Jacks most of the time, QQ/KK less, and AA rarely...and nothing less.
(I want to point out that despite losing an AI to two outer, and having all my big pairs cracked- I was not losing as implied..I finished up, and was +1 buy in when this hand took place, I wasn't playing stuck poker)
I believe that it is so close that either choice is fine, and given that- I'm ok with getting off the variance train against opponents over whom I have a significant skill adv.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.817% 40.57% 00.25% 7641291 46734.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 59.183% 58.93% 00.25% 11100585 46734.00 { AcAh, AcAs, KcKh, KcKs, QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JJ }
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and you have 41% equity. If that is the range there is nothing wrong with the fold. The range in IMO is a little odd because there is no AK in it and if he always shoves Jacks why does he never shove TT. But it is your read Kristy so nice hand.
good lay down.
If I'm in this spot with absolutely no reads, I think I call here. I have enough equity against common ranges.
BTW, the term coin-flip can be used quite loosely to describe anything from 50/50 to 42/58 which is a very wide range of equities (and that's just for overcards vs an underpair). AKs vs 22 is about exactly 50/50 while AhKd vs QsQc is about 43/57 If you play those "coin-flips" the same, you will be in trouble.