Please Help Me Analyze This Hand

Rattlin' Bones

Hey guys.

I consider myself to have recently reached the intermediate level of NL holdem knowledge, and have just started playing small buy-in (e.g. $1) SNGs. I think I have a good grasp of the fundamentals, and am starting to understand the math. But I still have a long way to go in my education.

I was hoping you could help me figure out whether or not I should have made this call. These are the types of hands that get me knocked out of tournaments early a lot, and I need help finding a way to quickly evaluate my situation when I'm on the clock.

Edit: Well, after reading the log myself, I crunched some of the numbers and realized how big of an idiot I was to call. See my notes at the bottom. I'd still be interested in receiving your advice on how to get away from hands like this, though. And maybe you can tell me where my reasoning still isn't correct.

Site: PKR.com
Game: $1.00+.10 10-player SNG, eight-minute blinds
Situation: I don't respect the ability of my opponent, but have had only limited time to observe him.

Table #6413457 - STT #4408315
Starting Hand #319662152
Last Hand #319661838
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: TOURNAMENT
Money Type: TOURNAMENT CHIPS
Blinds are now $50/$100
Button is at seat 9
Seat 1: Dakota23 - $1,750
Seat 4: RattlinBones - $1,920
Seat 5: budhighgrin - $1,760
Seat 8: QueenOfDimonds - $830
Seat 9: Tom86 - $7,950
Seat 10: sandini - $790
Moving Button to seat 10
Dakota23 posts small blind ($50)
RattlinBones posts big blind ($100)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing [Th Kh] to RattlinBones
budhighgrin folds
QueenOfDimonds folds
Tom86 folds
sandini folds
Dakota23 raises to $300
RattlinBones calls $300
Dealing Flop [Ah 8h 2s]
Dakota23 checks
RattlinBones bets $450
Dakota23 raises to $1,450 (all-in)
RattlinBones calls $1,450
Dakota23 shows [Qd Qh]
RattlinBones shows [Th Kh]
Dealing Turn [Tc]
Dealing River [7s]
Dakota23 has One Pair: Queens
Dakota23 wins $3,500 with: One Pair: Queens
Seat 1: Dakota23 - $3,500
Seat 4: RattlinBones - $170
Seat 5: budhighgrin - $1,760
Seat 8: QueenOfDimonds - $830
Seat 9: Tom86 - $7,950
Seat 10: sandini - $790
End Of Hand #319662152p

So... after the flop, I presume nine hearts are left in the deck... which gives me approximately a 36% chance to make my flush. I'm drawing to the nut flush. But there's an overcard on the board, and I can very well assume my opponent has an ace. So I can't really count any outs beyond that. (After I saw his cards, though, I felt a little better. I could add the three other kings for twelve outs and a 48% chance to draw a winning hand.)

Where I obviously screwed up was pot odds. With $950 in the pot, he moves all-in with $1,450. What's he giving me, 1:1.5 ? I have to win 150% of the time to justify calling that? What am I, an idiot? I wasn't nearly pot committed. And I couldn't think that I had him beat, because I was on a draw and it was entirely possible he already had a pair of aces.

Looking back, I have to think my post-flop raise was mistake. I can't decide whether his check to me was a good move on his part (I can see arguments going both ways). But despite the axiom that one must be aggressive to win, I should have checked and taken a free card, hoping to make my flush. Had I had the ace, and the board my king... then it would have been a different story. But with the ace on the board, a good enough reason to check was that my opponent might have had that ace, and if he did, I wouldn't have been able to push him off of it.

What I've realized is that I think I would have been able to get away from it easily were it not for the King. Chasing after the nut flush was just too tempting. I just wish I was at the point where I could make these judgments on the fly. Really, my odds of winning this hand weren't that difficult to calculate. I just couldn't see anything but my draw with the time ticking away when I actually had the cards in front of me. Despite my feeling that I'm becoming a good intermediate player, analyzing boneheaded moves like these makes me feel like a real donkey. But I guess that's the only way I can improve, right?

So, for the most part, I think I've answered my own question. But if you can correct/improve upon my math and strategies, please do so. I obviously have a long way to go if I'm still occassionally exiting tournaments like this.

Perhaps the most important question: should I have called his initial, pre-flop bet? I've learned that more often than not, you should always be raising or folding unless you're working on a specific strategy. KhTh didn't seem good enough to re-raise. But then, it was tough to fold with a third of the bet already invested. Perhaps not that tough, though. The one thing I'm having trouble calculating are my pot odds after his pre-flop bet. Are they 2:1? $150 already in the pot, and he raises to $300? Or is it more like 3:1, with him increasing his small blind six times from $50 to $300?

I obviously still have a lot to learn. But, that's why I'm here.

Thanks guys.

Milo

Okay, I'll go first with the caveat that I am probably a little behind you on the skill ladder, but certainly no higher. I'll start with the obvious: Preflop you are calling 2:1 pot odds with a K/10h (assuming he raised TO 300 as opposed to adding 300 more). I will assume the raise was standard for the table. I put Villain on a range of 9/9+ all the way down to A/9o. It's a wide range, but with no read on him/her I'm not prepared to loosen up the starting requirements THAT much to account for a steal attempt.
Obviously, this puts you behind the majority of his starting range, so I think it's a loose call. In all honesty if the flop does not hit you in the face, I think you need to consider letting the hand go. Based on the preflop range I used, the flop is likely to help the Villain more than you. I'm done to any bet, but more than happy to go check-check.
Your Flop bet was less than half the pot, and gives Villain the excuse (along with the fact that you did not re-raise PF) to think that you do not have an Ace. After that, you are basically commited, with almost half your chips already in the middle.
My honest answer is that, early in the tourney, with no read given, I fold to the PF raise. But I'd also wait to see what some of the more experienced players around here think. But that's just one donk to another okay?

cadillac

There is going to be 0% of players in a $1 SNG who have the ability to adjust to anything that you are doing. You should really play your hands for value and not be making any moves unless you find a weak-tight player who is capable of folding. Most do not have that ability and this hand provides perfect evidence of this with buddy shoving QQ over a bet on an A high flop.


Pre-flop is a pretty marginal call IMO unless you have a read that this guy has been frisky. You have position which is good, you are getting a good price which is good too, putting well over 10% of your stack in the middle with a hand that really needs to hit the flop to have any value is not really so good.


You can play draws fast if want but you don't really have to at this level. You should be more often looking for spots to value bet made hands instead. The reasons you play draws fast is because you have 2 ways to win and this combination makes the move +EV:

- Fold equity when you make the big bet
- You have Outs if you are called


Basically you want to be the one making the big AI bet so you have fold equity, calling off on a thin draw just sucks. In this hand you have priced yourself in to make the call but if you are making these type of plays all the time it is going to hurt your long term results.


I would default to peeling a free turn card with your draw to the nuts instead of betting the flop here unless I had a good reason to bet. eg. villain pays to see a ton of flops and always folds to aggression when he misses.

DataMn

You asked for some of the math in making these decisions, so here it is:

PREFLOP:

You are calling $200 to win the $400 in the pot, so your odds are 400:200 or 2:1. You would have to win 33.3% of the time to justify this call.

POSTFLOP:

You bet $450 into the $600 pot. This makes the pot $1050.

When your opponent raised all in, they made the pot $2500 and you only have $1000 to call. Thus your odds at this point are 2.5:1 - you would only have to win 28.6% of the time to justify the call.

Do not beat yourself up for this call - in my opinion it is the one thing you did right in this hand!!

Making any reasonable bet (1/2 the pot or better) into this pot is going to commit you to call if your opponent goes all in. If you bet $300 then you are going to have $1150 to call into a $2350 pot - where you will need 32.8% to justify the call.

The best move in my opinion would have been to check and see the next card. The stakes are not large enough at this point and your stack is not small enough that you need to make a move on this pot at this point.

WinPokerToday

I've got to give you credit for trying to improve your game. Hopefully you've learnt your lesson about calling all in chasing a flush.

I disagree with someone saying its the right call. Unless you are the favourite or have pot odds that are just too hard to refuse, I wouldn't call.

Regardless of your pot odds (lets make a reasonable assumption your opponent has an ace) in this situation, you were a 2 to 1 dog. Personally it wouldnt matter to me if i was getting 10 to 1 pot odds. Why would you put your tournament life on the line when you know you are going to lose 2 out of 3 times.

I can understand if you're short stacked, but you werent, and had plenty of chips left, to put your money in the middle, in a much better position later in the game.

BBC Z

I like the call if your plan is to either win the thing or pony up another buck to start the next one.

-EV? yeah probably, but it could actually increase your winrate by leaving you with easier decisions on future hands (if you win) and reducing your losses per hour (if you lose).

What's he giving me, 1:1.5 ? I have to win 150% of the time to justify calling that?

The only way you could get a 1:1.5 pot odds is if the pot was filled with negative dollars in bizarroworld.

BBC Z

I put Villain on a range of 9/9+ all the way down to A/9o. It's a wide range, but with no read on him/her I'm not prepared to loosen up the starting requirements THAT much to account for a steal attempt.

Yowch, that range is WAAAAAAYY to small. We're talking about an open raise from the SB. I think like 80% of the deck is playable here.

My honest answer is that, early in the tourney, with no read given, I fold to the PF raise.

It's not THAT early in the tourney, 4 people have already busted out and the blinds are at 100. 50/100 is the stage when you start to have people raising to steal the blinds.

I disagree with someone saying its the right call. Unless you are the favourite or have pot odds that are just too hard to refuse, I wouldn't call.

Boooooo..

I can understand if you're short stacked, but you werent, and had plenty of chips left, to put your money in the middle, in a much better position later in the game.

Your typical SnG lasts about 120 hands until it goes heads up. This is a turbo, so it's more like 80. He's likely halfway through his number of hands. So we're looking at 50 if we're lucky. Maybe 20-30 on average. There's no time to be passing up anything.

Milo

BBC, thanks for the lesson. Thats what I get for posting before fully digesting the question. With regard to your comments re: # of hands per SnG. Would you say that forces you to play looser (sooner), or just that you would ramp up the aggression on your quality starting hands?