Stars tournament situation.

Unknown

82 remain in a Stars 10+1 NL rebuy tourney, and 81 get paid. 2000/4000 blinds, 200 ante.

I'm in the SB with 35,264 after posting. I have pocket nines.

Folded to the button, who makes it 12,000. 10,000 more to me to call. The BB has 40K after posting, and the button has about 40K left after his raise. The button hasn't been playing overly aggressively, from what I can tell.

Call, raise, or fold?

ScottyZ

Perhaps he wasn't all that aggressive on later streets, but didn't you perceive him as a loose raiser (pre-flop)?

This is the same player who moved in for 60K+ with KQ on the hand that eliminated you? Of course, your read at the time can't be based on that particular information.

I don't think that sneaking into 81st place is a factor here, is it?

ScottyZ

harthgosh

I most likely woulda all in'd... Although there is a great argument for folding also (which i suppose you did?). I woulda allined because I would want him to fold, or call with a worse hand. I like my table to think im not scared to shove it back in there face, and who knows, if he calls with rockets, you could spike a nine and be sailing much further in the tourney
It all depends on your read of the player... You said he was probably a tight player, so maybe he does have an ok hand. If he does call, and risk himself coming 82nd (or close to it) at least you have a semi ok hu hand.

How was the flow of the table at the time also? was it steal the blinds every hand? If so, maybe he was copying the others... If I was him, and it was folded to me there, I would raise the blinds with 23o and up.

But I also know if you re-raised me all in on the bubble aces, I would muck aqo and down damn fast.

Im not scared of bubbling if the buy in is less than a few hundred, knowing I took a shot, especially if I am pretty sure I have the best of it.

Coming 82nd does put you on the wall of shame for the day, out of reasons of principle... But we all know the $$ doesnt appear in stars rebuys till you get down to final 7-6 anyways.

Unknown

Perhaps he wasn't all that aggressive on later streets, but didn't you perceive him as a loose raiser (pre-flop)?

I was starting to. Hadn't been shown many hands, though. The table was tightening up.

This is the same player who moved in for 60K+ with KQ on the hand that eliminated you? Of course, your read at the time can't be based on that particular information.

Lol no... I didn't know he would come over the top of a raise all-in for all of his chips against a similiar-sized stack with KQo.

I don't think that sneaking into 81st place is a factor here, is it?

No, not for me. It might be for some, though, so I thought I'd include that information. Personally speaking, 81st place money won't change my life, but at the same time, I don't want to give so much satisfaction to all the very short stacks out there by bubbling out....

How was the flow of the table at the time also? was it steal the blinds every hand?

Yes, the table was very tight, and 90% of the pots were won pre-flop.

Although there is a great argument for folding also (which i suppose you did?).

I can't tell you yet, that would spoil the fun! I'll wait and get a few more responses, then I'll let the cat out of the bag. Although, Scotty has already leaked that I didn't bust on this hand, so we know that for sure lol...

Regards,
all_aces

Chugs

well part of my analysis would be based on the BB. Did the button also have the BB covered. If the button has you both covered and the BB has generally not defended his blinds, my inclination would be to go all-in.

I would be expecting a semi-steal with overcards from the button, something like AJo

C.A.M.

My first thought was to fold...but thinking about the range of hands that he'll raise with then fold, and the slight advantage against overcards when he calls...I think this would be a good spot to go allin.

ScottyZ

I would have pushed all-in pre-flop.

Even a solid player could be attempting a pure (i.e. with complete cheese) steal here.

If it's a semi-steal with a bare ace (and assuming your opponent is just as likely to make a raise in steal position with A2 as he is with AJ for example), it's better than 50-50 that his kicker is below 9. Of course, this analysis is oversimplified, because there are other hands besides Ace-highs on both sides af 99 which one might call semi-stealing hands (KQo, 76s, 22, etc.)

And if your opponent really is on AA-TT (the only hands which give you serious problems of course), just type "9" into the PokerStars chatbox. This sort of calling for the card has worked for my opponent against me 4 of the last 4 attempts. I'm tempted to start calling for bricks myself.

I don't like either folding or calling here. You hand is far too good to fold to a steal position raise. As for calling, your stack is not deep enough to make calling an implied odds play, and too deep to make the "call and automatically push all-in on the flop" play.

I think your stack size is such that you do not want to see the flop.

Furthermore, by just calling you lose the chance of more forcefully shutting out the BB by raising. What happens if all three of you take the flop and at least one overcard flops? (There is about an 80% chance of this.)

Finally, as an aside, *if* finishing one spot higher to get into the money is important to you (I don't think I should have been for you here, but let's say if this tournament was some kind of 81 seat satellite instead), then you have the easiest decision in the world. Fold. There were plenty of other short stacks in dire straits which you could have waited out.

ScottyZ

Unknown

Thanks for all the replies, guys. Everyone favoured moving in, and I probably should have done that, but didn't.

After a lot of thought, I just called. My reasoning was that it would leave me with 6XBB, which is as we all know the new black. I was planning to move in on any flop without an ace, but the flop was Ac 6h 2c, and I checked and folded to a bet of 12K.

Weak, all_aces, very weak. :banghead:

Of course, if I'd known then what I later knew about the button (that he was very loose, preflop at least) I'd have pushed in without much thought.

I folded an orbit, and then got QQ on my BB. MP tripled the blinds I think, SB (button from the '99' hand) moved in his entire stack, I of course called, MP folded. He had KQ vs. my QQ, flop xxx, turn K, river x, and that was it. So, that was the info. I wish I had about that guy before the '99' hand.

Did you know that when QQ gets all-in preflop vs. KQ, it only wins about 70% of the time? You probably did, but I thought it would be more like low 80's. Whaddya know.

After reading all the responses, it becomes painfully clear to me that I should have moved in. Thanks again for the replies!

Regards,
all_aces

ps: I am seriously considering emailing this site: http://mpt.net.nz/archive/2004/02/17/black
which was found by Scotty, and asking them to add "6 X BB" to the list. Scar tissue is the new black?!? Not on my watch.