Two for One Heads Up Challenge with ODDS
West Side Poker just finished it's heads up challenge which by now everyone knows Lee won. He told me Saturday that he would be coming out yesterday, I couldn't make it, I had a ball game. (We lost, should have come). I told him there would be some good players there and they would be in for a shock when they see his game. Read what Lee R wrote and then see the offer at the bottom of the page.
This is what Lee R had to say:
Wow I must have a million horse shoes up my ass, I mean winning 7 of the last 8 tourneys I've played in.. what a RUSH!! The pocket cards you hold is only about 20% of the 100 it takes to win a hand in poker. If you sit there all night waiting for that monster hand good luck on winning a tourney. In a tournament you need to be aggressive, watch the cards and make your moves early if you want to have any chance in winning. Here's how I recall my hand. Im holding an A7 Offsuit, everyone limps it, it comes to Shannon and he up it 240. Everyone calls, flop comes done A52 Clubs. At this point im thinking I'm holding top pair, everyone has a chance at a flush draw to seperate those up I bump it to 500. I get re-raised all in. So I'm thinking maybe he hit the flush, staring him down for a minute I put him on top pair with a flush draw but no flush after the flop. I also have top pair with a mid kicker at this point anyone would probably have folded. Im thinking no 7's drawn in the last 4 hands odds are in my favor that I'll hit. Now Im thinking is my 7 going to hold up if the other card (turn or river) is the other he's holding. I like my odds, I call. He flips over and A5 showing two pair. At this point I'm relieved that he didn't have and 8 or higher and hoping the the turn or river isnt a 5. Turn comes with a 2. I wait to see if my 80% shot of a river is a 7, low and behold it is. All night no one would call me when I raised with shit and when I had a nice hand they would just call, I would reraise on the turn and they would fold. I must have seen only half a dozen rivers after I raised. Say what you want, I play and unorthodox style of poker but it works. What would have made me fold? A few scenerios. 1) If Shannon popped in 500+, 2) If the all in just called and then raised all in on the turn. 3.) If more than two people called the 500. Anyway thats my two cents.... or and if anyone thinks I don't know how to play poker.. lets go heads up and I'll give you 2 to 1 odds. Your $500 against my $1000 email me and we'll setup up a date and time. Time to go get my car!!
Lee
Because Lee has now taken out Two West Side Poker Club champions, we are willing to host this challenge on August 12th 7:30 pm during our 65.00 freeze out event in Brampton. If it is 500.00 to 1000.00 game, the winner will get a free roll into our tournament of champions valued at 160.00. If it is 1000.00 to 2000.00 game we will make it the winner gets a free roll to the Poker Cruise on August 28th
We will use the same format as we did for our heads up challenge and it will be best 2 out of 3.
In all matches players will start with 10 000 in chips and each game will last 1 ½ hours. Blinds will start at 25/50 and go up every ten minutes. 25/50 50/100 75/150/ 100/200 150/300 200/400 500/1000. The blinds will then be frozen. If the game is still going on after 1 and 20 minutes, antes will start at 500 and double every two minutes until we have a winner.
Any serious taker email me at
westsidepokerclub@rogers.ca
Brent
This is what Lee R had to say:
Wow I must have a million horse shoes up my ass, I mean winning 7 of the last 8 tourneys I've played in.. what a RUSH!! The pocket cards you hold is only about 20% of the 100 it takes to win a hand in poker. If you sit there all night waiting for that monster hand good luck on winning a tourney. In a tournament you need to be aggressive, watch the cards and make your moves early if you want to have any chance in winning. Here's how I recall my hand. Im holding an A7 Offsuit, everyone limps it, it comes to Shannon and he up it 240. Everyone calls, flop comes done A52 Clubs. At this point im thinking I'm holding top pair, everyone has a chance at a flush draw to seperate those up I bump it to 500. I get re-raised all in. So I'm thinking maybe he hit the flush, staring him down for a minute I put him on top pair with a flush draw but no flush after the flop. I also have top pair with a mid kicker at this point anyone would probably have folded. Im thinking no 7's drawn in the last 4 hands odds are in my favor that I'll hit. Now Im thinking is my 7 going to hold up if the other card (turn or river) is the other he's holding. I like my odds, I call. He flips over and A5 showing two pair. At this point I'm relieved that he didn't have and 8 or higher and hoping the the turn or river isnt a 5. Turn comes with a 2. I wait to see if my 80% shot of a river is a 7, low and behold it is. All night no one would call me when I raised with shit and when I had a nice hand they would just call, I would reraise on the turn and they would fold. I must have seen only half a dozen rivers after I raised. Say what you want, I play and unorthodox style of poker but it works. What would have made me fold? A few scenerios. 1) If Shannon popped in 500+, 2) If the all in just called and then raised all in on the turn. 3.) If more than two people called the 500. Anyway thats my two cents.... or and if anyone thinks I don't know how to play poker.. lets go heads up and I'll give you 2 to 1 odds. Your $500 against my $1000 email me and we'll setup up a date and time. Time to go get my car!!
Lee
Because Lee has now taken out Two West Side Poker Club champions, we are willing to host this challenge on August 12th 7:30 pm during our 65.00 freeze out event in Brampton. If it is 500.00 to 1000.00 game, the winner will get a free roll into our tournament of champions valued at 160.00. If it is 1000.00 to 2000.00 game we will make it the winner gets a free roll to the Poker Cruise on August 28th
We will use the same format as we did for our heads up challenge and it will be best 2 out of 3.
In all matches players will start with 10 000 in chips and each game will last 1 ½ hours. Blinds will start at 25/50 and go up every ten minutes. 25/50 50/100 75/150/ 100/200 150/300 200/400 500/1000. The blinds will then be frozen. If the game is still going on after 1 and 20 minutes, antes will start at 500 and double every two minutes until we have a winner.
Any serious taker email me at
westsidepokerclub@rogers.ca
Brent
Comments
I played with you for the first time last night and watched you take her down. You busted me out in 4th place when you check raised me with K9 on a 9 high flop, and I re-raised allin with A9. I wasn't really paying attention as to what cards had come off the previous few hands, I dont know, maybe you were. Could you tell me what the odds were of you getting your kicker?
2 to 1 odds for a heads up match?? Wow, I can't say no too that. Lets Do it.
Can we gets odds on this match Jeff vs. Lee?
stp
I said to Cam, there is going to fireworks on Monday, as we watched Lee steam rolled through his opponents. And we didn't even know Jeff and CanadaKev were going to be there. I was thinking about you and the ever unpredictable Graham. Tyson always seems to talk his way into a bad beat for folding a hand that would have won if he paid to see the turn or even the river, sorry Tyson.
Odds for the tournament. I Jeff got off the phone with Jeff and he is game and can't wait. CanadaKev would like a shot and I think I will put together a list of 10 names with odds. Let me run some numbers tonight and I will post them tomorrow after I get off work.
Sorry I couldn't make. Would like to talk with you though, if you can give me a call tomorrow at work.
The Prophet
Your right. I do show alot of emotion at the table.... HUGE weakness. Hence why Im doing very well online, and well just OK live.
I think I have to just shut my mouth and put my head down and play cards.
Two great lessons this week.
I am glad your not mad about what I said it is just my observation. Your a class act and I enjoy coming to your house to play.
The Prophet 22
I think a very wise man told me once, that he never tells his cards. I think I should take the same advice.
I'd love to watch.
CanadaKev and Camblor are one thing but does this guy think he can beat ME?
I believe you met me at Huther's in Waterloo on a Thursday night. Both Jeff and Lee are champions at our events and feel comfortable with us, our dealers and our formats.
Any questions you have I will answer.
Brent
West Side Poker Club
aka The Prophet
Glad to hear the event went well, sorry I couldn't make it Brent...one day one day...just couldn't leave that 20 40 table...
I'm sure others will, but I know no one there and for something like this I want to feel comfortable.
Here is my stipulations for me playing this.
The event must be at Robs, Tysons, or Shannons (I'd prefer not Shannons, we know it's suck out central
My first game will be the 500/1000.
If I lose this, oh well, maybe you are better then what I saw (and what Shannon and Tyson and the rest saw).
If I win, then we can play the 1000/2000 game.
This will continue until either you say uncle, or win ... Either one of those could take a while with your attitude.
IE, 2000/4000 game 3
4000/8000 game 4
etc etc.
I mean, you're this good right? how can you go wrong.
However, my limitation is to size of player/observation pool.
Ofcourse there will be no rake.
I think Keelepoker is on to something. Â The original offer of a $500 vs $1000 is just too inviting.
I could personally lineup a group of 10 players that would be glad to each take a turn at Lee the champ.
I would be willing to play 10 games in a row at these stakes with these odds vs. Lee.
Coming up with $5000 to play the match is a much different story. Â There won't be a lineup of players looking for their turn at these stakes.
I am curious as to whether Lee would prefer a single match for the bread, or if a 2 out of 3, or 3 out of 5 match would be most ideal in lessening the luck factor somewhat.
For 500 vs 1000 I would be willing to put up money each match for as many games as Lee likes.
For 5000 vs 10000 I would prefer to play a best 3 of 5 or something similar for the one buyin. Â $5000 is a lot of money tho. Â I would consider playing for this amount but would not be overly comfortable. Â I could fill the 5K seat with a friend if i needed to, but since Lee beat me the other night, I want to keep this action for myself.
Lee beat me heads up for the car on Monday night. Â He would remember me if you tell him that, and Im sure he will want my action.
I would propose a set of matches at the 500 vs 1000, as many as Lee would want in succession, say 5, 7 or 10 for example.
Maybe Lee only wants to give a guy one shot at him and that is half the point of the challenge, if so, that is understandable. Â
I want my shot either way.
Kevin
1) He mentions that no 7's came down the last four hands so his odds were good at getting one. Does anyone else realize how completely inaccurate this is? Previous hands have absolutely no impact on the cards that come. If there are 3 sevens left in the deck you have a 3/whatever chance, (twice -turn and river) of hitting one. Those are terrible odds.
2) He said he was releaved to see that Shannon's kicker was lower than his, dispite this giving Shannon TWO PAIR! He was a HUGE dog in the hand. No one could possibly think that they were somehow favoured in that situation. Shannon definately should have won that hand, but that's where luck comes into play.
stp
As I am likely the one that started all this, I'm sure he'll want the shot at me (unless you guys also trash talked him a while during the game
Whoever he picks ... best of luck to them, because trust me, that's what it will take to win, skill ... 'no comment'
P.S. If I win that hand I pull an Arieh (yes, I'm also a bastard)
"You called my all in with AJ like that ... We can gamble" ...
Cept of course as everyone knows ... I was an 80/20 favorite on that flop, and 89/11 on the turn.
stp
Prophet 22
The best post in this thread is the one that stated the following:
1) He mentions that no 7's came down the last four hands so his odds were good at getting one. Does anyone else realize how completely inaccurate this is? Previous hands have absolutely no impact on the cards that come. If there are 3 sevens left in the deck you have a 3/whatever chance, (twice -turn and river) of hitting one. Those are terrible odds.
That is a common error in thinking pattern of many AMATEUR gamblers. It even has a name, "gambler's fallacy". It is the most ridiculous thing I have EVER heard a poker player say. I am sorry those are strong words. But I believe them.
Anyways, hopefully these strong words get me the chance to play. My only concern is the legitamacy of this. If Keelest is willing to put up 2:1 and back this guy, one of three things is true:
A) Keelest has sooooo much money and thinks it would be fun to host an event, and doesnt care about the money. I doubt a) is correct.
C) Keleest is smart. And he has the power to fix the game, and thus his money is safe. This option is the only one that makes sense to me, which scares me.
If A or B are correct, Ill certainly play.
which is why the two of them, Jeff and Lee have agreed to let us host it. They have both played in our tournaments and seen the professionalism we bring to the home game tournament on the big stage. The setting is professional with table and dealers, sealed decks that the players will chose from with a roped off area so they have breathing room yet many people will be able to watch.
Prophet 22
Spoken like a guy who is on a rush and happens to be running into situations where he dominates someone or luckily no one else has enough of a hand to challenge him.
That raise won't get rid of a flush draw.
He proceeds to put his opponent on not only top pair, but a flush draw to boot..
This is completely ridiculous and the reason I want to rant on this guy. He's an idiot who's run into a hot run of cards. The question he should ask himself is: If he lost the hand, is he still happy with the play? The answer to this brutal call is no, but he's too "in the zone" to realise it.
His opponent has him reverse dominated and he's happy? Right.
Ahh famous words from all the hobos that camp out around casinos around the world.
He doesnt understand that Shannon is LOOKING for callers, you don't want hands that you dominate to fold. Duh.
If it really is an open challenge and he accepts all oncomers, he'll be broke after the 15th match.
As for the logic of his offer, he thinks he is unstoppable like Daniel N and is trying to imitate him with the open challenge.
I hope someone from here takes his guys money. A lot of it.
Edit: of course, I forgot the best part.. he appears to have no concept of Heads up Poker. Offering your opponent 2 to 1 means that in order to him to break even, he needs to win 66% of his heads up matches. I believe a person who simply moves all-in every hand has like a 30% chance to win against the top pros..
Well, since someone else has finally spilled the beans...
Sklansky discusses and analyses this exact tournament format in TPFAP.
Essentially, you could train a monkey to win this particular tournament format in the long run. Well, as long as the monkey's trainer is allowed to give it some cue as to when the blinds are large enough to begin the "move all-in" mode.
Finally we can put the forum trunk monkey to some good use.
ScottyZ