What are the chances?

Hey guys thought this was funny and extremely unlikely to happen so I thought I would share the hand. Home game, .25/.50 cash game, 6 handed.

Hero 110$
Villian 90$

Family pot for 1.50$ each.

Hero 44

Flop comes Kd 2d 6c

UTG leads for 3$ one caller. I think I haven't hit a set all night lets peel one more off. I call.

3 players to the turn

4c BINGO

UTG checks, MP bets 11$, I raise 22$, MP re-raises to 42$, I shove, he calls.

He turned over 35dd for the made straight and flush draw. We agreed to run it 3 times and this is where is gets interesting.

The board paired all three rivers and I scoop. So my question is how unlikely is this and what are the odds of it happening?

Comments

  • Well with 1 card to come you are approx. 23% to win, so wouldn't it be .23*.23*.23 = 1.2%.. Actually slightly lower than this as each time you pair the board it lowers the chance of it pairing again.. Perhaps 1.0% to pair all three times...?
    Anyone with any other thoughts?
  • It is too hot to disagree . . . even if I thought you might be wrong.
  • Comp is close, but as he said you have to take into account that there are less cards once each board pairs.

    The true percentage is (10/42) (9/41) (8/40)... About 0.9%

    Incidentally, his odds of scooping you we're 45.2%
  • compuease wrote: »
    Perhaps 1.0% to pair all three times...?
    Anyone with any other thoughts?
    DataMn wrote: »
    Comp is close, but as he said you have to take into account that there are less cards once each board pairs.

    The true percentage is (10/42) (9/41) (8/40)... About 0.9%

    Incidentally, his odds of scooping you we're 45.2%

    Nit... :)
  • DataMn wrote: »
    Comp is close, but as he said you have to take into account that there are less cards once each board pairs.

    The true percentage is (10/42) (9/41) (8/40)... About 0.9%

    Incidentally, his odds of scooping you we're 45.2%
    And just to show you I'm more of a nit... It's were.. not we're.. :)
  • compuease wrote: »
    And just to show you I'm more of a nit... It's were.. not we're.. :)

    Autocorrect f*cker.

    Oops... it must have autocorrected again ;-)
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