Big Raise on River w Top Pair/Top Kicker
1/2 on the button with AKoff; five callers and you bump it up to $15 and only get two callers; flop comes A95r; checked to you and you make it $35; one player calls. The turn is a 4h (two hearts on board); check, check (I should have likely bet but the $35 call has me questioning his hand); river is a Jd. Villian bets out for $100 into a pot of around $125. He has around $100 behind and you have him covered. Villian has won some big pots on the river with big bets and not shown his hand. Do you make the call?
Comments
But thats not really the point. I fold. He's not calling your flop bet with anything that you're way ahead of on a board that transparent. AJ/AQ are possibilities, but Im not betting 100 with AQ in that spot.
If villain occasionally shows AQ so be it - but Im guessing thats a smaller percentage of the time then youre behind. 1/2 players loves them some A2-9 suited so A5, A9 are in the range.
he could be bluffing here with any 2 cards if he interprets your check as weakness. and who wouldn't?
unfortunately you have to call. i think you win often enough to make it worth your while.
Unfortunately you played the hand so weird that I think you have to call.
Why on earth do you check this turn unless you are trying to induce a bluff?
the call on the flop really confused me; I wasn't worried about trips as I would expect a re-raise. I was thinking AK-AJ and didn't want the pot to get out of hand on the turn with a re-raise if I bet. I didn't want to commit all my chips on the turn with only top pair.
This guy was tight aggressive and raised a lot of pots on the turn and river to win without showing. The size of the bet is what made me consider calling.
With no draws on that flop I seem to only be able to put him on winning hands here (AQ being an exception).
Given the action I fold on the river. Too often I see the pot-bet-value-bet on the river. Also round numbers like 100 screams value. Plus, you have one pair. You're not going to win many pots at showdown with one pair.
If he is bluffing he'll prolly do it again, but next time hopefully you'll have the nuts.
was the villain hoping to CR on the turn? possibly. but if he has a made hand, wouldn't he want the flush draws and weak Aces to pay? could he be that confident jimmy would bet the turn?
did the hero's check on the turn lead the villain to believe the hero has KK- or a weakish Ace? if so, he should expect a strong river bet will get hero to fold JUST AS EVERYONE ELSE has done in previous pots the villain has been in. so he could really have a lot of different hands here.
he limped OOP (unknown position) and called a middling raise from the button (unknown image). what could that be? small pair, suited connectors, soooooted Ace, medium strength Ace. hard to say without more of a read on the player. could it be JJ+, AQ+? i suppose but from a TAG? not likekly.
he check-called a medium bet on a pretty dry board. unlikely he has a draw. if he is truly tight aggressive, why hasn't he raised yet? it is possible he is slowplaying somekind of 2pr or a set but i doubt it. most likely some kind of weaker Ace, lower pair, or any 2 cards if he thinks he can steal the pot on the turn or river. again, this goes back to hero's image.
when jimmy checks the turn, i think the green light goes on for the TAG. at this point he is pretty sure he can take the pot away since jimmy doesn't defend his hand with a bet. now, he could have gotten lucky at some point here and caught 2pr or a set but it doesn't happen often enough to make up for the times AK is the best hand. as caddy points out, the way it played out, this is a very good spot to pick off a bluff.
if jimmy had bet the turn and been called and the villain comes out firing on the river, i think it is a much easier laydown.
this can vary hugely depending on the images of the combatants.
or the guy could have a monster and he's just milking the donkey
anyone else think 95 screams value but 100 whispers bluff? anyone? anyone? bueller?
I don't normally fold top pair with this type of board; based on past experience, I haven't seen a lot of 50BB bets on the river with garbage in 1/2. I would expect more of a 30-40% pot size bet on the river with a bluff, not half the guy's stack. Sometimes you have to go with gut feel.
on the turn, I was hoping the bet on the flop would be viewed as a continuation bet and my check would be a sign of weakness (i.e. I missed the flop, and then tried to steal the pot on the flop but got called and so I am slowing down on the turn); I figured if I bet on the turn, he would fold and I don't make any more money; vs checking on the turn and hoping he would call a bet on the river. I never expected a pot size bet on the river but maybe my plan backfired and the check was screaming weakness so he took advantage of this opportunity.
this is the conundrum I was faced with.
If he is OOP to the other 2 players in the pot it makes a big difference. Consider if he flopped a set or holds A9. From first position after the flop it is very possible that he check/called the flop in order to give the third player an opportunity to commit a $35 call to the pot or give him a chance to raise. This board is pretty dry as far as draws go so this would be pretty reasonable play.
This would also make sense for him to check the turn to give you a chance to fire another barrel.
But, if he closed the action on the flop and only called it makes a big difference. He should be thinking that a big part of your range for the pre-flop raise includes Ax. A check/raise on the flop is going to get lots of calls with big Aces and builds a nice sized pot that you might have a hard time getting away from on later streets.
Personally I think the $100 river bet looks more like a bluff than a value bet. You are only calling that bet with a big Ace and the way you played the hand it doesn't really look like you have one.
A smaller bet would is more likely to get some calls from hands like any Ace, KK, QQ, or even KJ which could be part of your range even though it shouldn't.
Please call. And make him show first. If he has you beat muck your hand and top up. Big deal.
Folding here just tells the villain that you can be bluffed on the river like everyone else he's done it to.
If you're only comfortable making/calling large bets when you have a large hand how can you expect to beat the game?
/g2
If you win here one time in 3 you're ahead.
Plus.
You don't want this guy taking shots at you.
This is your pot, this is your button and you should tell him that your checks don't mean no hand.
Send a clear message, "Fuck off and target easier fish."
Call. If he tables AJo, muck without showing.
/g2
Does anyone else think that one pair by the time you get to the river IS a weak hand? Your chance for a value bet is on the turn - not the river. I always remember that the average winning hand over seven cards is two pair. In a loose game like 1/2 NL I also assume people are coming into the pot with any ace.
i call here all day
hero check the turn for 2 reason
1) pot control
2) sent out i miss and try to induce a river bluff
well the situation is...hero got everything he want it.
pot is small compare to if he bet the turn.
so you successfully induce a bluff from villian, you have to call this.
if villian has you beat, so be it. you did a pot control, damage is minimum.
Waltsfriend
i quote your statement.
i would have to say, betting the turn will get you no value!
hero stated villian is tight player.
sure it is! but it really depends on the opponent and the situation, doesn't it? after all, haven't i seen you CALL a huge all-in with unimproved 44 (or was it 66)? if you are up against 2 opponents and there's a bet and a raise before you, AK is possibly no good. against a tight-passive player betting into you it is prob no good again. but in this situation, is AK likely good 4 times in 10? meh, probably.
yes, they come in with any Ace. which is exactly why your AK could be good here.
jimmy don't fold here
Unfortunately Greg I think I gotta agree with you entirely on this one. I call here without hesitation. I think he's interpreting that the turn check means he's weak and can take the pot away with a strong bet. So he bet away.
That 9 is too round. I like 77 for a bluff!!
I think you have to call this. If this is all you know about the guy.
He either hit the J set on the river or he is bluffing. That's what I think.
I could see him with A J sooted though.
If you bet on the flop to a tight player who just hit top pair with a decent kicker, don't you think he would call a flop raise?
I mean, sure, he's not on the button, and you would think he would put a little bet in there to see where he stands, but he also might think you are just betting because you in in good position and you sensed weakness. He might think you have nothing.
Then, the turn comes and he checks, cause he wants to see if you bet again to see if you have anything. Afterall, he's thinking you could have AK.
So, the river comes and he hits two pairs. Now he has you and you played into him perfectly. He probably would have folded his AJ on the turn if you bet.
Anyway, that's what I think he's got. I don't feel like he would be slow playing a set and he wasn't on a draw on the flop, so I"m thinking he has AJ+ and sensed weakness from you. I don't think he's bluffing, but you still have a chance, and you have to call.
On second thought, maybe he does have a set. Maybe he wanted to check raise you on the turn. I bet that's it!!! He had 99, didn't he? Then, on the river he wanted to put in 100 in hopes of what???? To make you fold?
Nah, he's bluffing on second thought. If he had a monster, why would he be putting in that large of a raise? He would be forcing you to fold. He sensed weakness. I think you have him most of the time.
Again, I go back to calling!!! That's the answer!!!
EDIT!!!!
Man, this is a tough one.
Now I'm thinking about why he didn't bet on the turn. If he had a monster, he already saw a bet come out on the flop, so why not bet on the turn and control the table? Although, if he's tight, why call the river bet? He's not on a draw, cause there aren't any flush or straight draw possibilities, right (at least I don't think a straight)? So, he has like what, 2-6 outs (if maybe an inside straight)? If he's tight, you have to assume he looks at outs and all that.
What could he be putting you on? A set? Top pair? What does he think you have?
So, if he's only got 2-6 outs, is he really going to call this bet? There's an A on the board and he calls a decent raise with nothing? I can't see that happening. Not unless you gave him something that made him think you had nothing, or hit only top pair or something.
I'm going to go check to see if you raise pre-flop. I believe you said you did, but I want to see the numbers.
I don't think it's a full bluff, but I bet he has AT+. Frig, this is a hard one.
/g2
Thanks for your input. Very insightfull.
What did he end up having though? I went over this again and it's a tough one. I'm going back to my crack-head ways and I'm thinking he has JJ.
Still I've seen it too often when bet size = hand strength and round numbers = value bets. Maybe this applies more to online as I can't say I've seen this in live play.
I've found it best to avoid marginal spots but if I'm well rolled for $200nl then, I'd be more likely to call.
I have fired away that much on a bluff at 1/2, especially if it puts the other player all in. If the table has been going awhile the average stack isn't in the $100 range. There may be a few in that range but several people will have $500+.
Obviously Bradford poker is the exception