Playing 14 year and never seen this happen..

SvenSven
in Brags, Beats & Variance
This just happened to me and I still can't believe it...

On Stars I just lost 6 consecutive times with AA to underpair sets as follows..

AA vs 66 - 6 on the turn
AA vs QQ - Q on the turn
AA vs 66 again, 6 on the turn
AA vs 77 - 7 on the flop
AA vs 55 - 5 on the turn
AA vs 33 - 3 on the flop

What are the odds of this happening? ... I requested my poker hand history from Stars for proof.

Sven

Comments

  • GrahamGraham
    Wow... that is rough... I guess you will be folding AA from now on. Were these all-in pre-flop scenarios? The odds of this happening must be insanely high to happen 6 times in a row.

    Tough luck, welcome to the site.
  • PinheadPinhead
    Sven wrote: »
    What are the odds of this happening?

    I'm too lazy to figure out 18% to the 6th so

    .0064% (using 20%) or 1 in 15625. If you're bored you can work out how many hands it should take for you to have AA vs under pair and that to happen, I have limits. I'm going to do a quick estimate and say it will take about 14 years though...
  • STR82ACESTR82ACE
    Pinhead wrote: »
    If you're bored you can work out how many hands it should take for you to have AA vs under pair and that to happen, I have limits. I'm going to do a quick estimate and say it will take about 14 years though...

    Hell, just do the calculations for your next math project...really impress your teachers ;)
  • PinheadPinhead
    STR82ACE wrote: »
    Hell, just do the calculations for your next math project...really impress your teachers ;)

    Lol those numbers are way too small to waste my time with. I'm way past the point of trying to impress teachers, I didn't even do that while I was still in school ;)
  • magithighsmagithighs
    Sven wrote: »
    This just happened to me and I still can't believe it...

    On Stars I just lost 6 consecutive times with AA to underpair sets as follows..

    AA vs 66 - 6 on the turn
    AA vs QQ - Q on the turn
    AA vs 66 again, 6 on the turn
    AA vs 77 - 7 on the flop
    AA vs 55 - 5 on the turn
    AA vs 33 - 3 on the flop

    What are the odds of this happening? ... I requested my poker hand history from Stars for proof.

    Sven

    Calculating the odds when looking backwards is always fun, but the truth is that when looking back, the odds are always 100%. A quote from Poker Nation is what keeps me going "Nothing which is mathematically possible is wholly improbable".

    My longest streak of aces getting crack was 12 at Paradise Poker many moons ago. It was almost surpassed at Stars when I lost 8 in a row. On the ninth time, I mucked the aces pre-flop as a gesture to the poker gods. I would have lost the hand.

    Happens.

    Cheers
    Magi
  • QueenNineQueenNine
    The answer lies within my avatar.

    Yep.
  • KristyKristy
    Sven wrote: »
    What are the odds of this happening? ...

    roughly = to the odds that we see the HH's?

    no wait...

    >the chance that anyone wants to see the HH's
  • soletitbesoletitbe
    Sven wrote: »
    This just happened to me and I still can't believe it...

    On Stars I just lost 6 consecutive times with AA to underpair sets as follows..

    AA vs 66 - 6 on the turn
    AA vs QQ - Q on the turn
    AA vs 66 again, 6 on the turn
    AA vs 77 - 7 on the flop
    AA vs 55 - 5 on the turn
    AA vs 33 - 3 on the flop

    What are the odds of this happening? ... I requested my poker hand history from Stars for proof.

    Sven

    Ouch----That hurts just looking at it and no river beats. Makes it even stranger.
  • ReefAquariumReefAquarium
    Pinhead wrote: »
    I'm too lazy to figure out 18% to the 6th so

    .0064% (using 20%) or 1 in 15625. If you're bored you can work out how many hands it should take for you to have AA vs under pair and that to happen, I have limits. I'm going to do a quick estimate and say it will take about 14 years though...

    if you do 40 hands / hour it will take 47,262.6 hours ...
  • InsaneGuyInsaneGuy
    Kristy_Sea wrote: »
    roughly = to the odds that we see the HH's?

    no wait...

    >the chance that anyone wants to see the HH's

    Hmmm.. are you saying we don't care?

    That is so mean :)
  • WolffhoundWolffhound
    No, I believe that Kristy is calling BS on the original post and as such there will be no HH cause there was no situation in the first place.

    Nice first post, I'm guessing 2nd post comes with a link to a nifty odds calculator.
  • InsaneGuyInsaneGuy
    Am I the only one with smiley that don't work ?
    (btw my post was sacarsm :P)
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    ReefAquarium, how did you arrive at 47,263 hours? One gets pocket aces an average of every 221 hands. Given the assumption that Sven is heads-up against one opponent with an underpair, the probability of his AA losing six consecutive times is as Pinhead stated - ~ 1 in 15,625. Wouldn't it take an average of 3,453,125 hands (15,625 * 221?) for this situation to happen? Or 86,328 hours (40 hands/hr) or almost 10 years of straight playing.

    To compare, the probability of getting a Royal Flush is 1 in 30,940 hands or 32 straight days of playing 40 hands/hr.
    ReefAquarium wrote: »
    if you do 40 hands / hour it will take 47,262.6 hours ...
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