50NL Deepish - AA on an ugly board
This value bet on the river should be +EV should it not?
The only straights he should have are JJ or a more unlikely AJ here. If his hand is made he would not check this to me on 3 streets hoping I would bluff at this board so should I get enough calls to get value out of KK and QQ?
FullTiltPoker Game #5233301049: Table Sherwood (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:26:10 ET - 2008/02/12
Seat 1: Chip Stevens ($51.25)
Seat 2: IJackit ($97.75)
Seat 3: bombtrack311 ($89.30)
Seat 4: 4XTRADER ($45.70)
Seat 5: rastasam ($49.25)
Seat 6: WhiteHeatSYD ($72.60)
bombtrack311 posts the small blind of $0.25
4XTRADER has 5 seconds left to act
4XTRADER is sitting out
4XTRADER has timed out
rastasam posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
Holecards :
Dealt to IJackit [
]
WhiteHeatSYD has 15 seconds left to act
WhiteHeatSYD folds
Chip Stevens raises to $2
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit raises to $6.50
4XTRADER has reconnected
bombtrack311 calls $6.25
rastasam folds
Chip Stevens folds
Flop :
[
]
Chip Stevens adds $0.75
bombtrack311 checks
4XTRADER stands up
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit bets $15
tan2wan2 adds $50
bombtrack311 has 15 seconds left to act
bombtrack311 calls $15
Turn :
[ ] [ 
]
bombtrack311 checks
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit checks
River :
[ ] [ 
]
bombtrack311 checks
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit bets $18
The only straights he should have are JJ or a more unlikely AJ here. If his hand is made he would not check this to me on 3 streets hoping I would bluff at this board so should I get enough calls to get value out of KK and QQ?
FullTiltPoker Game #5233301049: Table Sherwood (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:26:10 ET - 2008/02/12
Seat 1: Chip Stevens ($51.25)
Seat 2: IJackit ($97.75)
Seat 3: bombtrack311 ($89.30)
Seat 4: 4XTRADER ($45.70)
Seat 5: rastasam ($49.25)
Seat 6: WhiteHeatSYD ($72.60)
bombtrack311 posts the small blind of $0.25
4XTRADER has 5 seconds left to act
4XTRADER is sitting out
4XTRADER has timed out
rastasam posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #2
Holecards :
Dealt to IJackit [
]WhiteHeatSYD has 15 seconds left to act
WhiteHeatSYD folds
Chip Stevens raises to $2
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit raises to $6.50
4XTRADER has reconnected
bombtrack311 calls $6.25
rastasam folds
Chip Stevens folds
Flop :
[
]Chip Stevens adds $0.75
bombtrack311 checks
4XTRADER stands up
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit bets $15
tan2wan2 adds $50
bombtrack311 has 15 seconds left to act
bombtrack311 calls $15
Turn :
[
] [ ]bombtrack311 checks
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit checks
River :
[
] [ ]bombtrack311 checks
IJackit has 15 seconds left to act
IJackit bets $18
Comments
But I can be wrong
Yes, you are wrong. He checked the river to me. ^-^
Are you willing to get stacked here to a set? 66 or JJ?
The only hand your beating is AK/AQ - KK, QQ and some other BS that if he is bad enough he may call a reraise with OOP
I think KK reraises you PF, maybe QQ at this level.
I think checking behind on the flop is fine. Let him define his hand on the turn.
And keep this hand managible.
As it turns you have a 4 str on the board and your going to get to show down relatively cheaply if your ahead, without any additional information you really have to fold to a big bet here.
You also are only going to reasonably get paid off by KK/QQ (and that is a maybe on the QQ).
BTW I hate the river bet.
The river bet looks weak and defines your hand. your going $18 into a ~$43
A good TAG here pushes and forces you to fold.
Again pot control, pot control, pot control which basically means you do NOT get stacked on this type of board with an overpair.
wow.. I forgot fold.
lol
Wanted to say "and he'll fold the river bet"
But I'm prolly still wrong nonetheless lol
he called a large re-raise OOP from the SB with the original raiser yet to act and has check-called on all streets. i put him on AA, KK or AdKd (and you have the Ad so never mind) or he is brain dead OR has an incredible read on you that you haven't told us about. you must call a CR and he is only seeing the river with AA or KK so bet more for value here.
although it would be amusing to see him turn over 77 here...
p.s. why check the turn? you think you are behind? does the river check change your mind?
That seems like fluff to me. What do you put him (villian) on here _obv_? Esp. What do you put the villian on that CAN pay off a river bet but is losing?
No one said anything about me stacking off in this hand and that is not really the point here.
I think his hand is much more defined than mine is. He flat called a 3 bet OOP with the origional rasier yet to act. Making this play with a med to low PP looking for set value is really spewy. Check calling all the way on this board even further defines his hand to a likely overpair holding and he would need either brass balls or the nuts to CRAI on this river. Remeber 88, 99, TT, JJ and a suite AJ is in my range here, a good TAG is not shoving a hand that is less than the nuts here.
Betting 40% of the pot on this river represents alot more that just weakness IMO although I do agree with PFace that the same hands would call a bigger bet on the river.
Sorry, thought you were looking for advice. Your bets have commited you to the hand and that would be stacking off, so I thought it was the point.
If he shoves, do you call? You have to.
Not spewy at all... that is the whole point of calling the reraise. Out of the Hijack a reraise at this level is most likely;
a) AA-JJ (maybe TT-88 with a LAG) 70%
b)AK-AQ 25%
c) a really great play if you have someone who is opening really light 5%
If he gets reraised preflop, the hand is thrown away. However, if OR calls he is a great position with a small set mine. This costs him $5 to get $50, maybe $100.
This is assuming this guy is thinking at all. If he is not thinking then there could be any two cards and you should shut down when your flop bet gets called unless you know that he is going to play passivley with TPTK, or an over pair.
I disagree, a good tag would be shoving against weakness here. It is a very profitable play and it doesnt get called as much as you think.
You shut down on the scare card. Weak, then made less then a half pot bet on the river...weak. (not a weak play but it displays weakness).
If you really have the best hand, pot bet the river, your going to be paid off with KK-QQ, and get a fold from everything else, pulling in a pot without showing your cards is better then getting called on a weakish bet and showing your hand.
What about setting up your river bluffs, if you go for less then 3/4 pot with a good hand?
EDIT: Remove the part about CRAI, he doesn't have enough to get you to fold. But if the stacks were deeper it would a great play.
Really, given the read if you had a J or a set against the PFA don't you think C/R the turn is a good play?
Although the missed river value bet on his part could also be a scared slow played set, so I agree the J is very unlikley here.
22-JJ deserve much more credit here, especially given all the recent writing from Ed Miller, Negraneu et al on 2+2 and the value of set mining
AA or KK would presumably reraise preflop. This is a set or QQ...
If you really put him on KK,QQ then why check the turn?
Kristy: Hi Kristy
Kristy: Oh hello Kristy, fancy seeing you here.
Kristy: So what do you think about this hand?
Kristy: Well as I've already implied kk, might call but would probably get a little frisky at SOME point, qq seems like too weak of a hand to flat preflop and too strong to call for a set and as such, I'm almost discounting it. So by the time we get to the turn it is hard to put him on a hand that isn't beating us or drawing to the flush, and since that didn't close how are we getting paid off on the river?
Kristy: g2 for mod
Kristy: eff you slunt, Compuease 4mod4lyfe
No one has enough balls to make an educated guess as to what is most likely here and that is vital to discerning the correct move. (actually Tyson did, gg Tyson)
Yep Yep QQ but then he would have to be bad...
I like you Kristy your my hero, stack protection FTW
Your hot...
And so right.
And so hot.,...
Hrmm... In my mind you already are.
And tied up in my basement
I prefer Injah rather then her sister Onjah.
I thought about this on the way home and could not get past the preflop call. Why? (Because it takes a stonger hand to call than to raise)
Flop comes all flushy / straighty and the Villain check / calls
Turn comes and looks straight-er Checks all around
River opens up boat possibilities to add to the fun.
I think ýou might be ahead, so I like the value bet.
The reason I think you might be ahead is that I think if Villain had the straight he would not give up the chance to value bet it on the river. I say value bet because I discount the possibility of the boat (flame away, if you must). I think you either win it outright or split against AA. The reason I think AA is possible is as follows:
Preflop the Villain is in the perfect spot for a sandwich play by the preflop raiser. With AA a call is great, because if the PFR goes for it you can pop him back with the best hand. You give credit to the TAG re-raiser for a hand, but the other 2 Aces? No.
Once the flop hits you are OOP with an over-pair against a TAG with position, and you've given credit for a good hand, so check/call cause you do not want fold too easily. Check X2 on the turn makes you think you're ahead, otherwise why no raise from position? Check-call on the river because you aren't sure you're a lock.
Hope my reasoning is easy enough to follow. As I said, flame away if you must
The question I have is where is the value in the bet. If you think you are winning, there are so few hands that call you on the river that are not beating you. To me that is the definition of a value bet - one where you have a reasonable expectation of being called by a worse hand. Certainly the missed flush draw folds with any bet. I think even K-K or Q-Q would be scared of the board and possibly fold. Am I missing something? Where is the value?
If I felt I could get a caller I'd bet more ideally about $9.
But 6.50 is nice.
Pot is now about 15.50... you have effective stack sizes of about $83.
stack to pot ration is 83/15.50= about 5.3 ... this is near your optimal target stack to pot ratio. ... well done.
Only bad thing is people who figure they are getting 8.5 to 1 hit their set and figure you will stack off with your high pair.
When people write poker books about draw heavy flops this is the kind of flop they use.
This looks like a really awful flop for AA.
But is it really?
What range do you put your villain on?
If he's tight then his range might be AA, KK AK and maybe QQ. This flop missed a tight player.
If he's looser you might put him on TT+ AK , AQ.
Some very ardent setminers would call with 77+ but out 13BB preflop bet hopefully got rid of that.
There is about 15.50 in the pot and the smallest stack is about 83.
Now you are on what is called a "Commitment Threshold".
At this point you are making the decision of getting to the point where you will play for stacks for the next round. One of the things you don't want to do is put about 1/3 of your stack into a pot and then fold. At this point you are making the decision about if you want to play for stacks.
Do you want to play for stacks with this board?
Can you risk giving a dreaded free card? No overcards can come but that board is screaming at you to protect your hand from the straight and flush draws.
At this point it comes down to your decision about how this player plays?
When I get home I'll look this guy up on my database and see how he plays.
But looking at him on Sharkscope He's a looser over the last 560 tournaments helps played.
So maybe his range is wide here.
So based on this info (sketchy) I'm not crazy about committing to this hand.
Making a pot sized bet pumps the pot up to 45.50 with 68 behind. At this point you're playing for stacks with a hand you're not crazy about committing to.
Even if my 3 bet range is tight it looks something like JJ+, AK and AQ.
I have 6 ways each of making the of the big PP and 16 ways to make each big Ax hand. So 32 ways of Ax that I will not stack off with, 12 ways with QQ and JJ that I don't likely stack off with and 12 ways of AA and KK that maybe I stack off with.
Under this scenario I hold a hand I will stack off with 12 times (this counts on the fact that I am incapable of laying down AA or KK unimproved) and hands I won't 44. You won't get paid off often enough to make these calls profitable when you do hit your set.
I am not saying some people won't make the mistake of set mining in 3 bet pots against you. But you shouldn't make it yourself.
You are better then most players, but you still include AK AQ. Hence why a pair doesnt even have to make a set to win, however it is much more profitable if the opponent hasd AA-JJ and can't release. I am finding most players can't at the $1-2NL level.
50% of the time the pair is ahead based on your calculations. I don't think it is that high. But playing NL is not about playing the pot, it is about playing for stacks, any pair is very powerful and most players forget the fact that 50% of the time AX misses, but those special times when it hits and you hit a set you get a stack.
Based purely on AA vs ZZ with set potential, you're a 8~1 dog. So for every 8x you lose, you will win 1x which makes this a negative -ev, based on pot odds. However, if the person is 100BB deep you get charged 8BB to win 100BB which is ~12-1 and I think that if your decent you get paid off 75% of the time, there are very few players who can fold at this level. At 75% of the time, your still ahead.
This doesnt take into account the number of times your facing AX or QQ-JJ and you can force out on a scary board.
Ofcourse there are times when you shouldn't set mine, and the flow of the game, position, playing tendencies etc or if you can put the person WTT. But if you are playing an aggressive style you should be calling three bets with more then under pairs.
Based on style too, smart players tend to three bet me more then most which means there three betting me light but it is because I am so aggressive on the button. However, I also am able to float alot more and attack weakness with ANY CARDS, but the fact I will call a three bet light means that I also do hit alot of sets and I want hesitation and fear when someone bets against me.
Pre-flop. Hmmm... I have pocket TT and really should raise this up. Damn, that aggressive guy pops that other raise, but I'm not tossing this hand. It's in the top five and I'm likely ahead. He's just trying to isolate that other idiot. Let's see a flop.
Flop: Nice flop. I want to get this guy -- I'll trap that agressive monkey. I really want him to hit his ace or king. He's pretty much drawing dead. I'll check raise him on the turn -- just a little so he can try and get me off my hand. That agressive luckbox -- I got him.
Turn. FXCK. Now if that idiot has AJ, I'm toast. I'll just check call. Wow, a check behind. Now I know he has AK -- he'd bet his AJ for sure. Sweet.
River: Na na na, say hey goodbye. I can't bet here because I know he'll fold his AK. I'll check raise or even just check call to put the screws to him. I hate those aggressive donkeys. Fxck it, I'll check raise him.
He check raises your bet all in and you.....well I say you likely call. His line is totally ridonkulous, but it makes sense to him. Never mind about set mining -- he's not even thinking about that. He just thinks he has a good hand and wants to go with it.
Cheers
Magi
What Tyson said -- position is useless unless you use it. This is clearly win a small pot or loose a small pot -- no need to get crazy here.
Cheers
Magi
There is no doubt that this spot is pretty thin. The hands that I beat here that will call my river bet are very few but his hand is pretty well defined here too.
A flopped set is going to raise this nasty ass flop like 90% of the time in order to protect his hand. The way it played out I thing the only hand that beats me here on the river is AJ who missed a c/r on the turn and balked at a value bet on the river when the board paired.
Here's the outcome for anyone who cares:
bombtrack311 calls $18
Showdown :
IJackit shows [
bombtrack311 mucks
IJackit wins the pot ($78 .50) with two pair Aces and Sevens
SUMMARY:
Total pot $81 .50 | Rake $3
Board:
[
Seat 1: Chip Stevens folded before the Flop
Seat 2: IJackit (button) showed [
Seat 3: bombtrack311 (small blind) mucked [
Seat 4: 4XTRADER is sitting out
Seat 5: rastasam (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: WhiteHeatSYD didn't bet (folded)