$10 sit'n'go hand
Ok here's a hand that happened playing a $10, 7 person sit'n'go with my buddies last night. Everyone started with 250 in chips. It was the 4th level with blinds of 5/10. Now 6 handed I was in middle position and picked up AQs, i raise to 30, it's folded around to the sb who calls (he plays very loose/aggressive, comes out more for the social aspect and is basically just a loose cannon), bb folds. The flop comes 10s-Js-5d, he goes all-in, he is currently the big stack after taking the first guy out, so he has me covered by far. He's already had quite a few drinks and has shown a couple bluffs, I've seen him make similar moves with just top pair and top kicker so thats what i put him on, AJ. This gives me the spades (9), the K's (4) and the Q's (3), not to mention i have a ROYAL FLUSH DRAW, it just sounds so sweet, (every player also puts $2 in which all goes to the player with the best hand of the night, but i try not to let that affect the way i play hands) with still two cards to come. This makes me a 55.05% favourite, of course at the time i couldn't calculate that, but i knew with 2 cards to come it was probably a coin flip. Not to mention the fact that this guy could be on a stone cold bluff, even with my pre-flop raise and the flop i wouldn't put it past him. That is what put me over the edge and decide to call, he shows A-Jo, nothing comes for me and i bust out. Where did i go wrong? Was my pre-flop raise not big enough? Or was i dooming myself with my post flop call? Any input would be great thanks.
Comments
Secondly, I don't think your preflop was a bad raise considering, typical. Villian is known to be a loose cannon, and you put him on AJ, so you know you're behind. I wouldn't count on the RF hitting for you, just remember your opponent could have Js as well. The only outs I would consider here would be the 9spades for the flush, and 2 more Q's. With 2 cards to come, you made a good call.
I think you need to take the possibility that your opponent is bluffing out of the equation in your thinking. He may have been bluffing, but if he is then he picked a good time to do it. You didn't have a made hand, and even though we all hate to be the victim of a bluff, we have to accept that it happens to us.
The second thing to consider is do you want to put your tournament life on a draw - even when the pot odds say you should call. Generally speaking the answer is no. However, if you are pot-committed, which I would say you have less than 10 times the big blind left in your stack you may consider it. You didn't give this information, but it didn't seem that this is the case.
Except I count 9 spades + 3 kings + 3 queens = 15 outs, but I would discount at least 2 cuz i said so. Even with 13 outs, you may have odds to call. Personally I would pass on this spot and plan on outplaying this donk later, especially since he has just extended his donkish lead.
/g2
Just for my own peace of mind, I think that assuming the opponent has A-J, there are 15 outs here: spades (9), K's (3) since you can't count the king of spades twice even if it makes the Royal
rough est:
11 outs * 4 = 44% bad call
12 * 4 = 48%
13 * 4 = 52%
14 * 4 = 56%
15 * 4 = 60%
I leave it to you to decide how much of a favourite you need to be to put your entire stack in. I know you can get fancier than that at counting the outs and odds but for a live game, it is usually good enough.
As Walt said, at 10 times the BLINDS, (not BB), consider it. At 15x plus, you have lots of time to outplay your opponents.
Good call is questionable, Moose, I'll concede to that. I'm guess I was taking the texture/tone of the read into play too much.
Interesting way of calculating percentages. Where does the 4 come from? This is very true, and I didn't take it into account at the time of my original post.
not a terrible call but more likely a good fold.
eg. you are paired. chance of hitting set on flop?
2 outs * 2 * 3 cards = 12 %
Pretty close to actual odds of 1/8 or 12.5%
You flop 4 to the flush
Odds of flush on turn:
9*2*1 = 18%
Odds of flush by river:
9*2*2 = 36%
Hitting gutshot straight draw on next card:
4*2*1 = 8%
This personally gives me a '10%' rule on 4 out draws. If I can be in a pot for 10% or less, I can draw to a gutshot. Note I am including a little bit of implied odds there because I assume I will be paid off if I hit my draw.
/g2